Good morning: I know you’re not a member of Capital Wave Report… But I’m sending this to you because my purpose remains the same… That purpose is “to uncover how markets truly work and translate that knowledge so people can protect themselves, seize opportunity, and think independently in a system that rewards confusion.” It’s been a week since our signals went negative. Something was off… a gut instinct last Monday… but our signals flipped Red after the Fed meeting. Since then, we’ve had the massive silver implosion, Bitcoin’s crash to 70,000, gold’s selloff from mania, and some deeper problems starting to emerge in Japan and now England (GILTs are showing volatility, threatening Prime Minister Starmer’s job). Now, we’ve had this massive wave of momentum breaking down… again a week after our signals shifted. We aren’t here to brag. We’re here to help you manage these types of events because it’s very easy to feel alone and like there’s no explanation. This is what this Blog is about. It’s a form of insurance against all of the other insights and letters that you read. I understand you have recommendations coming from all different directions. But I’ll tell you right now… a lot of long positions don’t mean a damn thing if our signal is NEGATIVE and our read on policy and liquidity is ugly. I play defense and manage risk for readers out there in the financial space… And we got out ahead of this one again. To showcase that, we’ve also offered a lot of guidance in recent weeks on how to approach these types of events. That included articles on how to assess your portfolio, what to sell, what to hold, and where capital will rotate in a cycle. Money has shifted into a speculative phase of commodities, while rebalancing into consumer defensive names. If you’re new here, I’m aware that it’s a new framework of thinking. And you do have to see how this all works and how markets really function to now understand how financial plumbing and risk move together. We’re still within earshot of all-time highs, and you’d think that we were in the middle of a financial crisis. Well… guess what? Both things CAN be true. The Fed is providing support. The Bank of Japan is providing support. The European Central Bank is quietly offering support. The People’s Bank of China is working hard. Liquidity levels are near all-time highs, but the pace of its growth has stalled… and that is having a deadly impact on leverage and momentum, which are constantly looking for (respectively) the next dollar to refinance (or repo) and thus the next dollar to buy. This morning, as I said in the premarket, it was ripe for a little bit of a pop to start the day… and then… funds started selling right back into any short-term strength. This is likely going to be the pathway for a while. Lower highs and lower lows. Ultimately, we’ll be looking for a move to oversold levels on the Nasdaq and the S&P 500… and if that arrives, and there are no breakout stocks in our signals, we will look for a short squeeze that lasts a few days (similar to what happened March 12). All the while… look for markets to start calling for rate cuts again… especially in the wake of the ugly ADP jobs report, which showed no growth without government-adjacent healthcare hiring. We’re working overtime to manage this cycle, which is much different than previous negative signal environments. The 100-day moving average is the next test of the S&P 500. We’re here to help. Stay positive… and don’t make any decisions right now that you might regret later. Own capital efficient businesses… don’t own stuff that doesn’t make sense. Recognize that we’re looking for technicals to offer insights along the way. And don’t make any significant bets to the upside without clues from insiders and policymakers. Capital and liquidity steer markets… it all lives upstream of momentum. I don’t want any readers to lose money. And my hope is that you see how it works in this current cycle and in future cycles. So, if you’re ready to join us… and you want to know where the entry opportunities will emerge once this cycle ends… please do. This is the largest subscription discount I offer… The VIX just hit 20.55. Watch the SQQQ (which is waking up). When that moves to overbought territory, that could be the start of a quiet, slow bid back while everyone starts panicking again.
And watch the FNGD…
It’s telling us that leverage is unwinding. This could really go… Stay positive, Garrett Baldwin About Me and the Money Printer Me and the Money Printer is a daily publication covering the financial markets through three critical equations. We track liquidity (money in the financial system), momentum (where money is moving in the system), and insider buying (where Smart Money at companies is moving their money). Combining these elements with a deep understanding of central banking and how the global system works has allowed us to navigate financial cycles and boost our probability of success as investors and traders. This insight is based on roughly 17 years of intensive academic work at four universities, extensive collaboration with market experts, and the joy of trial and error in research. You can take a free look at our worldview and thesis right here. Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.
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