| This has pushed many investors to lean even more heavily on diversification as a defense. Diversification is important, but when it comes to diversifying across sectors, it doesn't work the way people assume. Companies' sector labels simply don't match how they actually make money today. For example, Microsoft and Alphabet sit in different sectors even though both compete across cloud infrastructure, AI, online advertising, and enterprise productivity. Meanwhile, a fiber-optic network operator in New Zealand is grouped in the same sector as Alphabet despite the two sharing almost no economic drivers. In short, the map of the market hasn't kept pace with the terrain. Yet portfolios continue to follow it out of habit and convention. Global value chains complicate this even further. A single fire at a Renesas semiconductor plant in Japan once halted Ford's production lines around the world. Risks no longer stay neatly inside industries or regions. They move through suppliers, customers, transport networks, software dependencies, and geopolitical chokepoints. That means your investments can appear diversified while still hinging on the same fragile point of failure. Many investors feel this shift even if they can't always name it. They see a company beat earnings and watch the stock fall anyway. They see solid businesses dragged around by noise that has nothing to do with management execution or long-term prospects. As markets continue drifting toward noise, I find myself returning to the only parts of a business that don't get swept up in the chaos: the fundamentals. Real earnings and real customers. Real costs and real cash flow. Over the years, the more the noise has grown, the more I've realized that a less efficient market isn't something to fear. It's something to work with. Opportunity still exists, but it rewards a different posture - one built on slowing down, reading more carefully, paying attention to incentives, and understanding the forces underneath price action. The longer I observe this shifting landscape, the more convinced I am that real analysis doesn't become obsolete in a noisy market - it becomes essential. In a world moved by mechanics instead of meaning, disciplined investors aren't at a disadvantage. They're the only ones still playing the real game. Be excellent, Anthony |
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