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ASML Earnings Clear the Way for More Gains in 2026
By Dan Schmidt. Article Published: 1/30/2026.
What You Need to Know
- ASML Holdings has a stranglehold on Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) light technology, which is necessary for making complex semiconductors.
- The company's EUV machines cost between $200 million and $400 million, and no current competitor can match its precision or accuracy.
- ASML raised its 2026 revenue guidance as it introduces a new, higher-tech model to clients, but is the stock still a buy after a 30% rally in January?
Would you invest in a company that sells only about 40 units of its product annually? If it's a large defense contractor selling jets to the government, that is a substantial sales quota. But what about a machine that exposes silicon to intense light? It might not sound impressive at first, but you could buy a squadron of F-35Bs from Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE: LMT) for the price of a single Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine. And like the F-35B, there's only one company in the world making EUV systems: ASML Holdings N.V. (NASDAQ: ASML). Today, we'll look at how this company became the Netherlands' most powerful tech firm and one of the linchpins holding the semiconductor industry together.
Monopolizing a Crucial Area of Chip Development
There may someday be a competitor to ASML's mammoth EUV machines, but today ASML effectively has a monopoly because no one else can do what it does: exposing silicon to extremely short-wavelength light to build the most sophisticated chips in the semiconductor space. The company doesn't rely on aggressive regulatory tactics to keep rivals away; it simply owns the highly specialized know-how and supply relationships others can't match.
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The process begins by firing high-energy lasers at tiny droplets of tin to create a plasma that emits extreme ultraviolet light. That light is steered by an array of precision mirrors to project microscopic circuit patterns onto silicon wafers. Such intense EUV light doesn't occur naturally, and ASML depends on an exclusive supply relationship with Carl Zeiss ZMT—the world's only supplier of the refractive mirrors required for these systems.
It may sound like a Rube Goldberg contraption, but EUV units cost between $200 million and $400 million. The machines are so complex that competitors face prohibitive R&D and manufacturing barriers.
Even shipping is complicated: each system requires roughly 40 specialized shipping containers and on-site assembly by a team of ASML engineers. In 2026 the company also plans to begin producing its new High-Numerical Aperture (High-NA) EUV machines, which increase aperture size to improve resolution. These units should reduce process complexity and lower per-chip costs, but they will cost more than $400 million per unit.
Strong 2025 Earnings and Guidance Raise for 2026
ASML closed fiscal 2025 on a strong note with its Jan. 28 earnings release. Fourth-quarter revenue was €9.7 billion (approx. $11.5 billion), putting full-year sales at €32.7 billion (approx. $38.8 billion), up 16% year over year. Gross margin for 2025 was 52.8%, and the company reported earnings of €24.73 per share (approx. $29.30) for the year.
ASML shrugged off concerns about a slowdown in China and raised its 2026 revenue guidance to €34 billion–€39 billion (approx. $40.3 billion–$46.2 billion). Management also set a 2026 gross-margin range of 51%–53%. That slightly lower near-term margin reflects the introduction of High-NA EUV systems, which are likely to carry lower margins initially as manufacturing and supply chains are optimized. Management reiterated a longer-term target of 56%–60% gross margin by 2030.
The stock currently trades at about 45 times forward earnings, a premium valuation but not unprecedented in a tech market where AI-adjacent names command high multiples. ASML also has a backlog exceeding €38 billion (approx. $45 billion), which already covers the low end of its 2026 revenue guidance. Having roughly a year of revenue in backlog provides a firm floor under the business as it works through the High-NA rollout. The company also announced a dividend increase and a plan to repurchase more than €12 billion (approx. $14.2 billion) of shares before the end of 2028.
Chart Shows Bullish Momentum Reaching Overbought Territory
Management, investors and analysts are broadly optimistic about ASML's 2026 outlook, and that optimism may already be running hot. The stock jumped more than 30% in January, aided by multiple analyst upgrades and higher price targets. The long-term technical trend is clearly bullish: the price is trading well above the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), with the 50-day SMA acting as support during pullbacks.
Despite solid fundamentals and bullish technicals, signs are emerging that the rally may be getting stretched. Wide daily ranges are becoming more common as the stock moves farther above the 50-day SMA, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been in overbought territory since before New Year's Eve. It wouldn't be surprising to see some profit-taking after the strong earnings report and analyst upgrades, so a short pullback is possible. The 50-day SMA could present a reasonable entry point for new positions — keep an eye on this chart in the days and weeks ahead.
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