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Netflix Stock Drops 35%+ After Q4 as WBD Deal Risk Rises
Written by Leo Miller. First Published: 1/23/2026.
Summary
- Netflix shares are in the midst of a huge drawdown that began in the middle of 2025.
- The company's latest earnings didn't provide a respite, sending shares even lower.
- With valuation multiples near an over two-year low, and analysts eyeing upside, is NFLX poised for a big recovery?
Entertainment giant Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) just reported its much-anticipated Q4 and full-year 2025 results. The stock closed down roughly 3% on Jan. 21, the latest sign of souring sentiment around the once-favored name.
Since hitting an all-time split-adjusted high near $134 on June 30, 2025, the stock has been on a steep decline. (Netflix completed a ten-for-one stock split in November, moving its share price from well over $1,100 to the $110 range.) Overall, shares are down about 37% from their mid-2025 peak.
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The former CEO of Google calls it the most important thing to happen in 500, maybe 1,000 years of human society. A former U.S. Treasury Secretary says when your great-grandchildren write the history of this period, the political headlines will be the second or third story. The first story is something none of us have seen before. The dot-com collapse, global financial crisis, and COVID-19 pandemic don't compare to what's coming next. We may be entering a period of dramatic, almost unimaginable change.
See the full warning and how to prepare now.The company has given investors a lot to consider. With growth expected to moderate and uncertainty surrounding its Warner Bros. Discovery (NASDAQ: WBD) acquisition, many market participants are cautious. The stock now trades at its lowest forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio in more than two years.
Given these circumstances, should investors exercise caution around Netflix, or is this an opportunity to buy after a steep decline?
Netflix Hits Its Marks in Q4, But Signals Growth Slowdown
In its latest quarter, Netflix posted solid results but only modestly beat Wall Street forecasts.
Revenue came in at $12.05 billion, up 18%, narrowly exceeding expectations of $11.97 billion. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) was $0.56 (split-adjusted), a year-over-year increase of more than 30% and $0.01 above estimates.
For 2026, Netflix guided to full-year revenue of $51.2 billion at the midpoint, implying growth of roughly 13% — a deceleration from the company's full-year 2025 growth near 16%. Management also expects free cash flow (FCF) of about $11 billion, roughly 16% growth.
If FCF expands at or slightly above this pace over many years, it could support the stock's current valuation. However, as streaming becomes more competitive and less novel, sustaining fast organic growth will be increasingly challenging.
Accordingly, the company's planned acquisition of Warner Bros. will be pivotal to Netflix's longer-term trajectory as it seeks to convert additional assets into higher revenue and profits.
WBD Deal: Netflix's Big Splash Still Has Big Question Marks
Netflix frames the Warner Bros. deal as a growth accelerator. On the earnings call, CEO Ted Sarandos said, "We're working really hard to close the acquisition of Warner Bros. Studios and HBO, which we see as a strategic accelerant."
Last quarter, those WBD segments generated about $5.28 billion in revenue and $1 billion in adjusted EBITDA. The acquisition could materially boost Netflix's EBITDA (which averaged roughly $3.4 billion over the last four quarters) and, if integrated effectively, enhance engagement and subscriber growth.
But Netflix is paying a steep price: the deal is valued at $82.7 billion, and the company recently converted its WBD offer to an all-cash transaction. That raises the financial burden, since WBD shareholders would not receive Netflix stock. Netflix also said it would suspend share buybacks to help finance the acquisition, removing a significant EPS tailwind after repurchasing nearly $9.2 billion of stock in 2025.
Perhaps the largest unknown is whether the deal will close. The transaction is likely to face intense antitrust scrutiny, and regulatory approval is far from certain. There's also a real chance that Paramount Skydance (NASDAQ: PSKY) could raise its bid above the current $30 per share, potentially pricing Netflix out of the deal.
Analysts Eye ~35% Gains, But Uncertainty Shrouds NFLX
The consensus price target for Netflix currently sits near $121, implying about 41% upside from current levels.
Many analysts updated their targets on Jan. 21 following the earnings release; those updates averaged around $117, implying roughly 38% upside.
Although these targets suggest meaningful upside, the market remains cautious — likely reflecting doubts about the WBD acquisition and future earnings growth. While the near-term outlook is uncertain, the stock's decline may present an attractive entry point for some investors.
Netflix's forward P/E of about 27x is the lowest since October 2023, indicating the shares are trading at a discount relative to recent history.
If the company successfully closes and integrates WBD, the long-term benefits could be substantial. Taken together, these factors tilt the outlook for Netflix shares to the upside, albeit with elevated execution and regulatory risk.
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