| Swan Dive — February 24, 2026 Addison Wiggin The Dow fell 822 points yesterday. The S&P 500 declined 1%. The Nasdaq lost 1.1%.
One catalyst was the 7,000-word "scenario" from Citrini Research, dated June 2028, that we summarized yesterday.
“For the entirety of modern economic history, human intelligence has been the scarce input,” the Citrini Scenario described. “We are now experiencing the unwind of that premium.” Kicking off “one long daisy chain of correlated bets on white-collar productivity growth.”
Real-world software, private credit, insurance, and asset managers traded accordingly.
IBM fell 13%, its worst session since 2000.
Datadog, CrowdStrike, and Zscaler each dropped more than 9%. American Express, KKR, and Blackstone all declined sharply.
The private credit firm Blue Owl lost 3.4% under renewed scrutiny. Apollo fell 5%. Lenders from major banks to regionals sold off.
Jordan Rizzuto of GammaRoad Capital said the repricing of AI disruption is happening sooner than many expected.
The great rotation followed as we’d expect.
Energy and consumer staples attracted flows. Defensive allocations rose while technology-heavy components dragged the major averages lower.
The structure beneath the move matters more than the headlines, the big red day for stocks, or the fictitious depiction from Citrini.
One indication that the flight-to-safety trade may still bear fruit: bonds rallied Monday. The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.026%, its lowest close since November.
Gold rose 3% to $5,204 per ounce. Silver gained over 5% to $86. 📊 Maximum Leverage on the Razor’s Edge Anyone curious about what happens when leverage gets squeezed out of the market needs only look at the silver price drop from $115 to $76 – a 35% shellacking – on Thursday, January 29, 2026.  Silver’s January 29 wipeout occurred after investors piled into leveraged bets on silver, such as SLV call options. (Chart source: KITCO) Here’s why margin debt matters for the skittish AI trade.
Across the U.S. stock market, margin debt reached $1.28 trillion in January, its ninth consecutive monthly increase.
Over the past year, it rose $342 billion, a 36% surge. Margin debt as a percentage of real disposable income exceeded 6% for the first time.
Margin debt now sits nearly three times the level of the 2000 Dot Com Bubble peak.  When margin debt gets squeezed, it’s not just the object of speculation that gets whacked – in today’s case, AI stocks – traders sell everything to cover their margin bets. Unwitting speculators see their 401 (k), IRA and pension funds sold off, too. AI blowback and political stunts won’t be far behind. (Source: Global Markets Investor) In 2000, margin balances peaked months before the Nasdaq declined 77% through 2002. 🛃 Tariffs and the Refund Clock Following the law articulated in "Tariff Plan B", President Trump said over the weekend he would raise a new global tariff to 15%, replacing duties the Supreme Court struck down.
FedEx stepped up to set a precedent and sued the federal government seeking reimbursement of tariff payments, becoming the first major company to act after the Court ruled the prior levies illegal.
The tariffs generated roughly $130 billion. Should other firms prevail in court, reimbursement costs would rise quickly.
Twenty-two Senate Democrats have called for the refunded duties to be repaid to the public with interest. An absurd political stunt, given that the tariffs don’t get paid by the public unless they buy something.
(It’s almost as brain-dead as defunding Homeland Security, including FEMA and TSA, to protest ICE… when ICE was already funded by another bill. But here we are in populist mobland.)
Trade-sensitive stocks, including American Eagle Outfitters, Ralph Lauren, and Yeti Holdings, sold off. Logistics and transportation shares followed. Continued Below...
With just one year in…he’s already signed more Executive Orders than nearly every president in American history…
But now – as shocking as it sounds -- Donald Trump is preparing to sign his very last one.
According to a leak inside the White House, this will be a radical $2 trillion move that could redefine America’s future in one stroke.
Not because he’s stepping down. Not because he’s sick.
There’s another reason this will be Trump’s final Executive Order — ever.
Get the full story here…
🏛️ State of the Union Ahead of the State of the Union address tonight, the Trump administration announced it is exploring options for a retirement savings program for workers without employer-sponsored plans, potentially without congressional approval. Like Trump accounts for adults.
Officials have discussed reviving a version of Obama’s MyRA program and integrating it with the Saver’s Match program set to begin in 2027.
Mortgage rates fell to 5.99% Monday, down from 6.89% a year ago. Refinancing applications are up 130% year over year. Lower rates ease monthly obligations while encouraging additional borrowing.
Tonight, President Trump addresses Congress.
The State of the Union is part of “the gig” for every president. The Constitution requires that the president "shall from time to time give to the Congress Information of the State of the Union." It's intended to be a recap of their previous year in office.
In modern times, it has become a Greek comedy in which Publius gets a front row seat to all the dirty tricks, deception and maneuvering… skulduggery, chicanery and mischief… manipulative spin, corruption, gerrymandering… dog-whistling, pork-barreling, vote tampering… graft, theft, bribery and kickbacks that pass for governance in the United States.
If Trump wants to counter the vapid narrative and performative shenanigans of Washington politics, he will offer a calm, thoughtful, common-sense explanation to everyday Americans who will benefit from lower energy prices and lower interest rates.
He will also keep it short.  Despite some big wins in energy and consumer pricing, voters confused by politics are still in need of convincing. (Source: Semafor) What the president will actually say is anyone’s guess. 🇲🇽 El Mencho Yo N Más We’re likely to hear Trump claim credit for this effort, South of the U.S. border:
Mexican authorities confirmed the killing of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho,” leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel.
Officials tracked his movements by surveilling his mistress.
Eight cartel members were killed in the raid. News and eye-witness reports were filled with car-jackings and burning buildings. The U.S. State Department advised Americans to shelter in place before conditions stabilized.
The next day in Puerto Vallarta, restaurants reopened. Flights resumed. A new normal settled in. 🪙 Hard Assets and Hard Math In the Grey Swan Trading Fraternity, Andrew has already executed a trade we’re confident will do well regardless of what political spin and opposition ahead of, during or after tonight’s address. It’s a clever trade. You can learn more about the trade here: Trump's State of the Union Shock.
Mr. Packer is also considering a few new silver trades. Our macro logic remains consistent: central banks continue to accumulate gold; sovereign debt expands, including in the U.S.; and gold and silver miners are still lagging the spot price.
In the Grey Swan Trading Fraternity , our macro analysis becomes trade execution. Good luck tonight.
On Friday, we step into the Rarecoa vault with Wayde Milas. The 2025 Eagle Privy Silver Eagle graded NGC MS70 — “One of the First 50,000” — carries event pricing you’ll want to learn about at the Grey Swan Live! event.
Rare coins derive value from permanent scarcity, certified condition, and surviving population counts. Mint marks matter. Grading matters. Supply remains fixed once struck.
We’re looking forward to getting the full story from Wayde on Friday.
~ Addison
P.S. Grey Swan Live! this week takes us from space to hard assets in the vault! Live and on the scene in Willowbrook, on the outskirts of Chicago.
Please join us while we visit with Wayde Milas inside the Rarcoa vault to check out the 2025 Eagle Privy Silver Eagle graded NGC MS70 from the first group of 50,000 pristine minted coins. Brand new sets will be available to attendees of the Zoom at a steeply discounted event price.  The live Zoom event will air on Friday, February 27, 2026, at 2 p.m. ET/11 a.m. PST.
If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com |
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