Both of those things are connected. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Don here... Friday's 125-point rally made a lot of people feel safe. Markets ripped. Headlines turned bullish. It was not safe. The S&P 500 opened Monday almost exactly where it opened five weeks ago. All that violence. Zero net movement. Underneath the surface, five weeks of option open interest has been packing into the same strikes like dynamite in a mineshaft. If you are holding positions this week without understanding that setup, you need to watch this. In today's free session replay, you'll discover: - Why Friday's rally was short covering, not buying. The largest short book in history came into last week. When those shorts buy to exit, markets rip. But that buying is temporary. The upside from here is capped. The downside risk is significantly larger.
- The gamma snowball building inside a 100-point range. Five consecutive weeks of open interest rolling forward into the same strikes. Every week the market stays here, the snowball grows. When it breaks, the avalanche goes one direction fast.
- How one stock is masking what the rest of the market is doing. 80 products traded down Monday morning. The S&P was flat. Nvidia was up 3% carrying the whole index. Microsoft failed to bounce. The advance decline line tells a completely different story.
- What Wednesday's delayed jobs report means inside this setup. Non-farm payrolls got pushed by the government shutdown. That report now drops into the most concentrated gamma environment I have seen in years.
The upside is limited. The downside has no floor because there has been no persistent trade below 6800 in months. If that level breaks, the fall could be fast. I drew the levels on screen. This week, I am running coaching sessions on expected moves. If you want to understand how I measure risk in this environment, then you need to show up to the main room LIVE. Watch the full breakdown of why the biggest short squeeze in history did not change the trend, how gamma creates explosive risk, and what the market is hiding behind one stock's rally. To your success, Don Kaufman
Chief Market Strategist, TheoTRADE P.S. What if you had tomorrow's levels today? Blake Young puts out his Dark Wires key numbers across multiple markets every night BEFORE the next trading day. It's mathematical. It's logical. And used correctly, it can give you an edge. Wednesday at 2PM EST, he'll show you exactly how it all works. 👉 CLICK HERE TO REGISTER FOR WEDNESDAY'S WEBINAR →
Helping You Become a Better Trader...it's What We Do. Experience TheoTrade® Today! Whether you are a beginning, intermediate, or active trader, you will find a treasure chest of valuable trading education resources, both free and paid, that will help take your trading to the next level. We are committed to helping you become the best trader you can be. Disclaimer: Neither TheoTrade.com or any of its officers, directors, employees, other personnel, representatives, agents or independent contractors is, in such capacities, a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, registered broker-dealer or FINRA |SIPC |NFA-member firm. TheoTrade does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. TheoTrade is not in the business of transacting trades, nor does TheoTrade agree to direct your brokerage accounts or give trading advice tailored to your particular situation. Nothing contained in our content constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, promotion, or endorsement of any particular security, other investment product, transaction or investment.Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Past Performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
TheoTrade PO Box 24790 Christiansted, Virgin Islands 00824
1 (800) 256-8876
|
|
|
|
Post a Comment
Post a Comment