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Behind the Markets
NextEra Energy: Priced for Perfection, or Justified Premium?
Submitted by Chris Markoch. Posted: 1/29/2026.
Key Points
- NextEra Energy stock is trading near 52-week highs after strong earnings and a reaffirmation of long-term growth guidance.
- Management targets at least 8% annual EPS growth through 2032, supported by regulated rate agreements and heavy capital investment.
- NEE’s premium valuation reflects strong momentum, clean energy leadership, and rising demand from data centers and hyperscalers.
Following a year that was generally favorable for utilities stocks, it's notable that NextEra Energy Inc. (NYSE: NEE) is up only about 24% over the last 12 months. A meaningful portion of that move has come in 2026: NEE is up 9.2% in January, with roughly 3.7% of that gain occurring after NextEra reported earnings on Jan. 27.
With the stock at a 52-week high and trading at about 27x earnings — a premium to both its historical valuation and the sector average — investors appear willing to ride a hot hand rather than price in potential risks. For now, the market is buying the powerful growth story laid out by NextEra's management.
Setting Up a Long-Duration Runway for Growth
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In the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings report, NextEra called 2025 another "execution year." Earnings per share (EPS) rose more than 8% to $3.71, topping the high end of the company's guidance. That outperformance was driven by growth across both of NextEra's business units: Florida Power & Light and Energy Resources.
As with most earnings reports, investors were focused more on forward guidance than on last year’s results.
Management reported that Florida Power & Light secured a four-year rate agreement with an allowed return on equity (ROE) midpoint of 10.95%. That agreement helps underpin NextEra's plan to invest $90 billion to $100 billion in capital expenditures through 2032.
For 2026, management reiterated guidance for adjusted EPS of $3.92 to $4.02 and said it is targeting the high end of that range.
From that starting point, NextEra is targeting at least an 8% compound annual growth rate in adjusted EPS through 2032, with operating cash flow expected to grow at least in line with EPS.
NextEra Is Playing a Key Role in the Energy Transition
Future growth is also coming from NextEra's Energy Resources segment, where adjusted earnings grew roughly 13% in 2025. The company posted another record year for renewables and storage origination, with a 13.5 GW backlog and a total development queue of about 30 GW.
Management noted solid demand from data centers and hyperscalers as a new "large-load" driver. That demand eases concerns about softer offtake and helps explain why some investors are willing to pay a premium for NEE stock.
NEE Stock Is Stretched, Not Stressed
The NEE chart looks like a classic "ride the hot hand" setup: price and momentum are stretched but still confirming an uptrend. Momentum has pushed the share price to the upper Bollinger Band while RSI sits in the mid‑70s. That combination can indicate overbought conditions, but it also commonly appears during strong, trend‑following rallies rather than at immediate market tops.
The pattern is similar to last October, when NEE pushed to the top of its band with an overbought RSI cluster before breaking out higher. That earlier move resolved with a brief pause and a shallow pullback that reset momentum. 
After that reset, NEE accelerated even higher, rewarding investors who stayed invested. Today's setup looks comparable: expanding bands, price above the midline, and rising volume suggest buyers remain in control, even if the short-term move is getting crowded.
A period of consolidation or a modest dip toward the 20‑day moving average would be a typical digestion pattern before another attempt at new highs. In that sense, the chart supports the view that investors are willing to keep pressing what has been working, treating any near‑term cooling as a pause in an ongoing momentum run.
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