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Why Taiwan Semiconductor and Meta Could Be the Hidden Bull Case for Broadcom
Authored by Leo Miller. Posted: 1/22/2026.
Summary
- Broadcom shares are struggling to recover after a steep December drop, down meaningfully in 2026.
- However, news coming from huge players in semiconductors and AI is fueling support for the stock's outlook.
- META's soon-to-be-released CapEx guidance could result in the next significant move for AVGO shares.
After ending 2025 on a weak note, shares of semiconductor giant Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) have continued to face pressure in 2026. Year-to-date, shares are down nearly 4%. Still, Broadcom isn't alone: artificial intelligence (AI) processor stock NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) is also off about 4.5%.
Broadcom's early-2026 weakness comes even as other key AI players are signaling strength that could support the company's outlook. Notably, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM) and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) have made announcements suggesting momentum in areas important to Broadcom.
TSMC Signals Strong AI Accelerator Demand Going Forward
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On Jan. 15, TSMC released its latest earnings report, and the quarter was solid. Revenues rose by more than 25%, well above the roughly 19% growth analysts expected. As one of Broadcom's key manufacturing partners, TSMC's strong sales point to healthy upstream demand that can benefit Broadcom and its customers.
More important is TSMC's outlook. The company expects sales to rise close to 30% in 2026, a slight deceleration from 2025's 31.6% growth — signaling continued robust demand from Broadcom's customer base.
Even more encouraging is TSMC's projection for AI-accelerator–specific revenue. That category includes the kinds of chips Broadcom's XPUs target, as well as NVIDIA's GPUs.
TSMC now expects AI-accelerator sales to grow at a compound annual rate approaching the mid-to-high 50% range from 2024 to 2029, up from its prior long-term projection in the mid-40% range. That upward revision suggests AI-accelerator demand may be stronger and more durable than previously thought, which is a positive for Broadcom.
Meta Compute Benefits AVGO's Custom Chip Outlook
Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg also offered a signal relevant to Broadcom with his Meta Compute announcement, describing the company's plan to greatly expand its data-center capacity over the coming years.
Within that announcement, Zuckerberg referenced Meta's "silicon program," the push to develop chips in-house. While the companies haven't officially confirmed details, Broadcom is widely believed to be Meta's partner in developing those custom chips, which Meta calls its Meta Training and Inference Accelerators (MTIA).
Meta's emphasis on custom silicon is logical. In June 2025, Meta published a research paper on its second-generation chip, the MTIA 2i, finding that on supported models the MTIA 2i reduced the company's total cost of ownership by 44% versus GPUs. While impressive, Meta only recently began deploying its second-generation chip more broadly, leaving room for further improvements in future generations.
Broadcom's largest custom-chip partner is Google parent Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL), which recently released TPU v7. Goldman Sachs notes that TPU v7 offers a roughly 70% reduction in cost per token versus TPU v6, dramatically improving AI workload economics and putting it "on par" with NVIDIA's Grace Blackwell 200, according to Goldman.
Meta's continued focus on developing in-house silicon — and its reference to that effort in Meta Compute — indicates a long-term commitment to custom chips. That should support Broadcom's outlook if Meta continues to rely on Broadcom as a development partner.
That said, Broadcom's role as Meta's co-developer is not guaranteed forever. Still, Broadcom's track record with Google lends credibility to the case for ongoing collaboration with Meta.
META's 2026 CapEx Guidance: A Potential Catalyst for AVGO
Despite Broadcom's slow start to 2026, there are potential catalysts on the horizon. Meta is set to report full-year 2025 results on Jan. 28, and analysts expect the company to release its 2026 capital expenditure (CapEx) guidance at that time. Given Meta's relationship with Broadcom, any meaningful change in planned spending could move AVGO shares materially.
Investors will be watching TSMC's AI-accelerator growth trajectory and Meta's CapEx guidance closely, as both could help determine whether Broadcom's momentum resumes in 2026.
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