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This Month's Featured Content What to Watch for in Meta's Earnings: 2026 CapEx and AI UpdatesWritten by Leo Miller. Article Posted: 1/26/2026. 
Article Highlights - Shares of Meta Platforms have struggled since its last earnings report in October 2025.
- The company's 2026 capital expenditure guidance will be among the most-watched metrics in its Jan. 28 release.
- Analysts continue to see considerable upside in shares despite investor trepidation.
In Q3 2025, Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) reported earnings that disappointed investors, sending the stock down more than 11%. With the next report approaching, the Magnificent Seven company is being watched closely. Meta will report on Jan. 28 after the market closes. While investors will focus on Q4 2025 results, the stock's next move will likely depend on what management says about 2026. Here are the key factors that will shape the outlook. Analysts Project ~20% Revenue Growth, Minimal EPS Gain At a basic level, investors want Meta to meet or beat analyst expectations for revenue and adjusted earnings per share (EPS). Analysts currently expect revenue of $58.3 billion, roughly 20%–21% growth, and adjusted EPS of $8.16, about 2% growth. In the prior two quarters Meta grew faster than these rates on both metrics. Meta should also provide revenue guidance for Q1 2026; the company typically does not give full-year growth guidance. Analysts are projecting $51.3 billion in sales for the quarter, roughly 21% growth. Because ad spending usually peaks in Q4 during the holiday season, a meaningful sequential decline from Q4 to Q1 would not be unexpected. The growth rates of ad impressions delivered and price paid per ad are two key indicators for the advertising business. Growth in the neighborhood of 10% (or slightly higher) for each would be consistent with recent trends. Expense Guidance Will Be Top of Mind Probably the single most important disclosure will be Meta's capital expenditure (CapEx) guidance for 2026. In Q3 the company signaled it expected a very sizable increase in spending next year. When Meta initially guided to $71 billion in CapEx for 2025, its commentary implied that spending could rise well above $100 billion in 2026. That suggestion unnerved markets, with some investors questioning whether prior AI investments justify such a large jump. Analysts expect Meta to provide a concrete CapEx range. If that range comes in above most market expectations, the stock could move materially lower. It's hard to know if the guidance will exceed forecasts. Management has used assertive language about its AI ambitions, including the Meta Compute announcement, which outlines plans to build tens of gigawatts of data center capacity this decade. The company has also signed several new energy deals since the last report, totaling 6.6 GW of capacity. Those developments suggest CapEx guidance could be meaningfully higher than some expect. Investors may take some comfort in the fact that Meta shares have already fallen more than 13% since the last earnings report, which could limit how far the stock moves on additional disappointment. Total expense guidance (which excludes CapEx) will also be important. The range will help show how hiring and other investments in AI talent are expected to affect Meta's cost base. CTO Touts New AI Models as Analysts See ~25% Upside Beyond the numbers, investors will want updates on Meta's AI development. On Jan. 21 at the World Economic Forum, Meta's chief technology officer, Andrew Bosworth, described the new AI models the company is using internally as "very good." While Bosworth didn't name specific models, sources indicate the company is working on two new models codenamed Avocado and Mango. Positive commentary about these models could lift investor sentiment, particularly because the firm's LLaMA models have not impressed some market participants. Despite the recent share decline, Wall Street analysts remain constructive. The consensus price target is near $822, implying roughly 27% upside. Meta is playing the long game on AI. Whatever the market's immediate reaction to the next earnings report, investors will need to decide whether Meta remains a compelling long-term investment.
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