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This Month's Exclusive News The Last Time Qualcomm's RSI Did This, the Stock Rallied 70%Authored by Sam Quirke. Publication Date: 1/27/2026. 
What You Need to Know - Qualcomm has just exited extremely oversold territory, a technical setup that previously marked the start of a major recovery rally.
- The signal is appearing just ahead of earnings, when expectations are about as low as they can be.
- With much of the downside already priced in, the risk-reward balance is tilting toward the bulls.
Shares of tech giant Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) are trading around $155 after a rough couple of weeks. After a reasonably strong start to the year, the stock has fallen roughly 15% over the past fortnight. The selling pressure has been persistent, driven largely by concerns that Qualcomm may have missed the boat on parts of the AI transformation, particularly in major enterprise use cases. That pessimism is visible in the stock's chart. Last week, Qualcomm's relative strength index (RSI) dipped below 30, officially entering extremely oversold territory. That alone would be noteworthy, but the rapid bounce back above the crucial 30 level makes the setup more interesting. It not only suggests the worst of the selling pressure may have passed and buyers are stepping back in, but also recalls what the stock did the last time this occurred. Why Qualcomm's RSI Signal Matters Right Now The RSI is a popular technical indicator that gives a quick snapshot of a stock's recent momentum and helps gauge how overbought or oversold it might be. Equally important to how far the RSI falls is how quickly it rebounds — that speed tells you a lot about how the market is interpreting the move. The last time Qualcomm's RSI fell below the 30 level was in April of last year, and in less than a week it was already out of the danger zone. That is essentially the setup we're seeing now, and it frames how investors should think about potential outcomes from here. History Rhymes: Qualcomm's RSI Bounce Previously Fueled a Rally That quick bounce out of extremely oversold levels in April preceded the start of what became a roughly 70% rally in Qualcomm shares. It marked a clear inflection point where bearish momentum ceded to sustained accumulation, and we could be seeing a similar transition again. Qualcomm has been aggressively sold off as sentiment turned negative, but the RSI popping back above 30 suggests the market has absorbed much of that selling. This reversal is unfolding just days ahead of earnings, which makes the current setup more compelling if you believe the sell-off has been overdone. Even After the Downgrade, Qualcomm Still Shows Upside to $175 Much of its underperformance relative to peers — both last year and in recent weeks — stems from concerns that Qualcomm is lagging in the AI arms race. While companies like NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) have dominated headlines, Qualcomm's progress has been quieter and more fragmented. That view may be too narrow. Qualcomm has been making steady advances in personal AI across IoT, edge computing, and robotics. Those markets are less flashy than large-scale cloud AI, but they are meaningful, scalable, and fit well with Qualcomm's core strengths. In that light, the recent sell-off may be discounting significant opportunities. A recent downgrade from Mizuho to a Neutral rating didn't help sentiment. Still, with Qualcomm trading around $155, its refreshed price target of $175 implies notable upside. Earnings Could Be the Catalyst That Turns Qualcomm Higher On the technical side, Qualcomm has shown early signs of stabilization. The stock has recently bounced off support around $154 — the level where bears ran out of steam in October. Taken together, the pieces are starting to line up. Qualcomm heads into earnings with sentiment near rock bottom and a fresh technical signal that has historically preceded a significant recovery. History doesn't always repeat, but it often rhymes, and Qualcomm's downside appears more limited now than it did two weeks ago. If the company can reassure investors that its long-term growth story remains intact next week, the post-earnings reaction could tilt higher. After a punishing start to the year, this is the sort of setup where confidence, rather than panic, may prove the smarter play.
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