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Just For You Halliburton Beat Expectations Again—Now the Rebound Trade Gets RealSubmitted by Thomas Hughes. Date Posted: 1/22/2026. 
Article Highlights - Halliburton’s long correction may be reversing after the company delivered better‑than‑expected Q4 2025 earnings and revenue, outpacing analyst forecasts.
- Despite muted growth expectations for 2026, robust capital returns, strong free cash flow, and international demand support shareholder value and upside potential.
- Analyst sentiment and institutional activity are firming, with a Moderate Buy consensus and rising price targets reflecting improving market confidence.
Halliburton's (NYSE: HAL) stock has been in a correction for more than 18 months, setting up its next significant move — and that movement appears to be underway. The company's latest earnings results, while showing tepid growth, have consistently beaten expectations, enabling strong capital returns and shareholder value, and catalysts are in place. The oilfield services company returned to growth unexpectedly in Q4 2025, driven by strengths in key segments, and offered an optimistic outlook for long-term value. While growth isn't expected to be robust in 2026, the company expects Q4 strengths to persist and sees new technologies improving operational quality. The key takeaway is a strong commitment to shareholder returns, including aggressive share buybacks and a continuing dividend. Gold continues hitting new record highs, but the next few weeks could be the most critical window in the metal's history. Deutsche Bank and J.P. Morgan both raised their 2026 targets to $6,000 per ounce. Yardeni Research, who avoided gold calls for years, now sees $10,000 by decade's end. When skeptics turn bullish, something big is happening. But nearly everyone is missing what happens on March 31st, when a 90-year-old federal law could trigger a major wealth transfer. One company owns 88 million ounces of gold worth over $431 billion yet trades for a tiny fraction of that value. See the evidence before March 31st arrives. The dividend yield alone is more than 2% with shares trading near the middle of their long-term range, while buybacks reduced the share count by an average of 1.15% sequentially in Q4, 3.8% year-over-year, and roughly 3.4% for the fiscal year. Given the history, outlook, and impact of share-count reduction, the company appears well positioned to sustain this pace in 2026 and beyond. For the year, the company returned 85% of its free cash flow, leaving ample funds to strengthen the balance sheet. Highlights include reduced cash, current, and total assets offset by lower debt and liabilities. Equity fell marginally for the year but was partly offset by the share-count decline; leverage remains low, with long-term debt about 0.7x equity. Analysts and Institutions Underpin Halliburton's Stock Price Rebound While an analyst price-target reset helped drive Halliburton's 2024–2025 stock declines, the market reaction looks overdone and has set up 2026's opportunity. As of mid-January, trends point to firmer sentiment: coverage and price targets are rising and analyst sentiment is improving. The Moderate Buy rating shows a 72% buy-side bias, and the consensus — up modestly from Q4 2025 — sits near long-term highs and above key resistance levels, signaling a notable shift in market dynamics. 
Institutions own over 85% of the stock and support its cash-flow and capital-return profile. They bought on balance throughout 2025 at a pace of roughly $2 purchased for every $1 sold, with activity ramping into year-end. Early 2025 was lighter by comparison, but institutional demand extended the bullish trend and may strengthen as the year progresses. Catalysts — persistent core strengths, improving North American demand, and reentry into Venezuela — suggest consensus forecasts could be too low, potentially triggering a bullish cycle of outperformance and analyst revisions by year-end. Halliburton Outperforms in Q4 2025: Stock Price Extends Uptrend Halliburton delivered a solid Q4: revenue rose about 0.9% versus expectations for a contraction. The Completion and Production segment posted modest growth, while marginal weakness in Drilling and Evaluation was offset, resulting in a beat of consensus by 460 basis points. Regionally, North America declined about 7%, but growth in international markets — notably Mexico and Latin America — offset that weakness. Margin trends were stronger: the company widened operating margins materially, driving an 11% gain in operating income and a 2,500-basis-point bottom-line outperformance. The market response was favorable. Halliburton's pre-market price jumped more than 2.5%, moving toward analysts' consensus. If the market follows through, fresh highs could follow quickly. In that scenario, HAL shares could move into the mid-$40s — roughly the $44 range — potentially setting an eight-year high before mid-2026.
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