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Special Report Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?Reported by Leo Miller. First Published: 1/20/2026. 
What You Need to Know - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines in 2026 when shares jumped more than 17% on Jan. 13 — the company's largest single-day gain in over three years. Moderna shares have been hammered as COVID-19's relevance has faded. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock is down more than 90% from its all-time high — even after the recent bounce. If your retirement strategy involves "picking the right stocks," you're one crash away from disaster…
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And his followers have seen an 84%-win rate. Click here to see how he does it With the stock in such a deep hole, and the pharma company recently lifting its outlook, is it possible that Moderna shares have life? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The spike in Moderna stock followed better-than-expected revenue guidance and stronger-than-expected cost management. For 2026, the company said it expects to generate $1.9 billion in revenue — $100 million above its previously outlined midpoint guidance — and it forecasted operating expenses roughly $200 million below prior estimates. That guidance implies non-adjusted operating expenses for 2026 of about $5.0 billion to $5.2 billion, roughly $2 billion lower than the previous year. On a cash basis, Moderna expects costs of $3.5 billion to $3.9 billion by 2027. Nearly all of Moderna's current sales still come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the firm's $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million was from COVID vaccines — a steep drop from late 2021, when the company generated $7.2 billion in one quarter. As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world's population had received the complete primary series of a COVID-19 vaccine, leaving a much smaller pool of potential patients for Moderna. That makes it difficult to see sustainable growth based solely on its COVID treatments. Still, Moderna expects up to 10% sales growth in 2026, driven largely by repeat booster demand among high-risk individuals and seniors. The company also has strategic partnerships with the governments of Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia; 2026 will be the first full year to reflect those arrangements. Notably, in Q1 2026 the firm expects about $200 million in sales from the U.K. government. Targeting high-risk populations and pursuing government deals could help establish a more stable revenue base. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna says its seasonal vaccine strategy combined with cost reductions could produce breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine that could be approved in 2026 and begin generating meaningful revenue in 2027. Approval for a second seasonal product would be a significant catalyst and is important to the 2028 target. However, seasonal vaccines alone are unlikely to deliver long-term growth. For investors to get genuinely excited again, Moderna will probably need successful readouts and approvals in non-seasonal categories such as oncology and rare diseases. The company has several candidates with pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The most important is its personalized cancer medicine, intismeran; Moderna expects five-year Phase Two data in early 2026 and Phase Three data possibly in late 2026. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock Uncertainty continues to cloud Moderna's outlook. Whether COVID-19 vaccine sales have truly bottomed is far from certain, and the company's long-term prospects hinge on approvals in clinical areas where it currently has no marketed medicines. Policy developments have also added pressure. The Trump administration has been critical of mRNA technology and has taken steps winding down government investments in this area, which has heightened concerns about future support and approvals. For now, Moderna is a stock to watch. The consensus price target — near $30 — implies more than 25% downside from the current share price, reinforcing a cautious view. Stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand and positive non-seasonal clinical readouts would be key prerequisites for becoming more constructive on Moderna's long-term prospects.
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