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Additional Reading from MarketBeat Can RSG Stock Turn Guidance Into Gains in 2026?Reported by Chris Markoch. Published: 2/20/2026. 
Key Points - Republic Services posted an EPS beat but issued modest 2026 guidance, reinforcing its role as a steady, contract-driven business rather than a high-growth story.
- Ongoing acquisitions and sector consolidation support long-term positioning, though recent CapEx has pressured cash flow and buyback potential.
- As investors rotate toward defensive names, RSG shareholders could benefit from stable demand, dividends, and predictable revenue streams.
- Special Report: [Sponsorship-Ad-6-Format3]
Republic Services Inc. (NYSE: RSG) delivered a mixed fourth-quarter earnings report on Feb. 17. Earnings per share (EPS) of $1.76 beat the forecasted $1.62 and were 8% higher year-over-year (YOY). Revenue of $4.14 billion missed the $4.21 billion estimate by about 1.6%, but still rose roughly 2.2% YOY. More important was the company's forward guidance. Republic Services guided full-year 2026 revenue to a range of $17.05 billion–$17.15 billion, with the midpoint implying about a 3% YOY increase. I Met Elon Musk "Face-to-Face"
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I'm sharing an "access code" that lets anyone grab a pre-IPO stake before it happens. This is your invitation to the biggest wealth-building event of the decade. Click Here to See how to Get Your "SpaceX Access Code" Republic also issued EPS guidance for full-year 2026 of $7.20–$7.28. The midpoint represents roughly a 3% YOY increase from the $7.02 delivered in 2025. The company expects roughly $1 billion in acquisitions in 2026, following $1.1 billion of capital expenditures (CapEx) in 2025, underscoring ongoing consolidation in the sector. That guidance helps explain the lukewarm to bearish price action in RSG stock since the report. The earnings release showed softer operating cash flow following last year's CapEx, which could pressure free cash flow in 2026 and limit share buybacks. RSG stock returned about -2.2% over the past 12 months, but it is showing signs of a bullish reversal. The question for investors is whether there is enough upside to make RSG a must-own name in 2026. The Chart Looks Favorable Investors initially reacted little to the report: RSG was down roughly 0.8% on the day. Sentiment turned more negative on Feb. 18, with the stock trading about 5% lower midday, pushing it below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA). With an RSI in the low 40s, selling pressure may not yet be exhausted. 
That said, RSG stock has exhibited signs of reversing a bearish pattern that began in June 2025. It is important for the shares to hold the current level around $210; if they do, the bullish pattern remains intact and the next technical target is the 200-day SMA near $228. That level is also close to analysts' consensus targets and the highs seen in late July. Macroeconomic and Sector Tailwinds Are In Place Republic Services should benefit from two broader trends. First, some investors are adopting a more defensive stance amid doubts about the sustainability of growth in AI-related stocks. Second, waste-management businesses are classic defensive plays: the service is essential and revenues are often tied to long-term contracts. Critics may point to weakness in the construction sector, which has pressured volumes. Still, there are signs economic activity is improving as provisions from the Trump administration's One Big Beautiful Bill begin to flow and as promised reshoring spending from tariff negotiations starts to arrive. Republic Services operates in an industry that effectively functions as a duopoly with Waste Management Inc. (NYSE: WM). Over the past three years, RSG has delivered an average total return of 24.5%, outpacing WM's 19.6% over the same period. Both companies are widely held by ETFs and attract significant institutional interest, though institutional buying has not been overwhelmingly bullish. That moderate institutional stance may explain some of the broader malaise for names outside the tech sector. Notably, the gap between buying and selling volume widened in the last quarter. Analyzing the Upside for RSG Stock Analysts currently assign RSG about 15% upside, with a consensus price target near $245 (MarketBeat forecast). With many analysts forecasting around a 12.5% total return for the S&P 500, a roughly 16.7% return would shift Republic Services from market laggard (as in 2025) to market leader. That potential appreciation would come alongside a modest but reliable dividend, which has increased by high-single-digit percentages over the past two years. Investors are paying a slight premium as of Feb. 18: RSG's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is about 31.7x. That is not expensive relative to the company's history, but it is above the sector average and the S&P 500.
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