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Exclusive News Nebius' AI Infrastructure Rally Is Back—And the Numbers Explain WhyBy Ryan Hasson. Originally Published: 2/20/2026. 
Key Points - Nebius shares have gained more than 20% over the prior week as accelerating demand and raised contracted power guidance boosted investor confidence.
- Management reaffirmed its ambitious $7 to $9 billion ARR target for 2026, highlighting strong pricing power and long-term customer commitments.
- With analysts lifting price targets and the stock reclaiming $100, NBIS is approaching a key resistance level that could trigger a fresh breakout.
- Special Report: [Sponsorship-Ad-6-Format3]
Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS) has quickly emerged as one of the market's standout performers in AI infrastructure. Over the past week, shares have surged more than 21%, driven by confident forward guidance, a wave of bullish analyst upgrades and BlackRock's significant stake in the company. Just two weeks ago, the stock was testing a major support level and appeared to be losing momentum. Now, following its latest earnings report, Nebius is pressing up against key resistance and flirting with a potential breakout. With improving fundamentals and strengthening technicals, the company is increasingly positioning itself as a potential leader in the AI infrastructure space. Shares Climb After Q4 Results Nebius reported fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 12. At first glance, the numbers looked mixed. Revenue was $227.7 million, below estimates of $246 million, but still represented 547% year-over-year growth and 55% sequential growth. Gross margin held at 70% versus 71% in the prior quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $15 million versus expectations of $40.4 million, although the adjusted EBITDA margin for the core business improved to 24% from 19% in Q3. EPS was a loss of $0.69, missing consensus of a $0.42 loss. The headline revenue miss initially raised eyebrows, but context matters. Management explained that most of the new capacity came online in late November and therefore contributed meaningfully only to December revenue. As a result, quarterly revenue lagged expectations, while forward indicators painted a stronger picture. Active power reached 170 MW, well above the previously guided 100 MW. Year-end annual recurring revenue climbed to $1.25 billion, up 127% quarter over quarter. More importantly, management reiterated an ambitious year-end 2026 ARR target of $7 billion to $9 billion, signaling continued confidence in demand. Revenue guidance for 2026 was set at $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion, which management described as prudent. The company also reiterated a year-end 2026 connected-power target of 800 MW to 1 GW and raised its contracted-power guidance from more than 2.5 GW to over 3 GW. AI Demand Accelerating, Not Slowing During the earnings call, management emphasized that demand trends remain robust. Enterprise and AI-native customers continue to outpace available supply, allowing Nebius to sell future capacity well in advance. The company said it saw nearly twice as many transactions for contracts longer than 12 months in Q4 compared with Q3, and average selling prices increased by more than 50%. Management also reported that the company has effectively sold out of Hoppers, with renewal contracts extending 12 months or longer at improved pricing. That combination of longer-term commitments and rising prices points to strengthening pricing power rather than weakening demand. Analysts Turn More Bullish On Feb. 18, Compass Point initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $150 price target, implying roughly 54% upside at the time. A day earlier, BWS Financial reiterated its Buy rating and $130 price target, noting meaningful upside potential. Those calls add to an improving analyst backdrop. Both firms emphasized that the Q4 "misses" were timing-related rather than demand-related, with power and ARR targets driving the 2026 thesis. If the company continues converting contracted power into connected power on schedule, the upside case becomes easier for analysts to defend. Nebius now carries 11 analyst ratings, a consensus Moderate Buy, and an average price target of $143.33 — still implying substantial upside despite the stock's roughly 140% gain over the past year. Impressive Relative Strength and Breakout Potential While many software and AI-related names have struggled recently, Nebius has bucked the trend. Shares are up roughly 28% year to date and recently reclaimed the $100 level. If the stock can hold above $100 and build support, the next key level to watch is the $110 resistance zone. A sustained move above that area could trigger a breakout and mark the start of another leg higher within its broader uptrend.
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