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Why You Own the Wrong S&P 500

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Why You Own the Wrong S&P 500

Alexander Green, Chief Investment Strategist, The Oxford Club

Alexander Green

Six months ago, I published a column here titled, "What Most Market Indexers Get Completely Wrong."

I noted that the big-cap tech stocks dominate the S&P 500, which is market-cap weighted.

As a result, Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), for instance, makes up over 5% of the index.

Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) makes up over 6% of the index. And Nvidia (Nasdaq: NVDA) makes up over 7% of the index.

In the past, this worked in investors' favor, as mega cap tech stocks have led the market higher for over a decade.

But I warned that this won't always be the case... and that investors should make a simple tweak that could substantially increase their returns while dramatically reducing their risk.

That's a bold claim... and yet it's already playing out exactly as I described, with my "alternative S&P 500" outperforming the market by more than 700 basis points just in the first seven weeks of the year.

Let me unpack this for you...

Tech stocks now account for a record 35% of the S&P 500. That's up from 20% at the end of 2018.

Yet, astonishingly, that 35% figure actually understates the true tech weighting of the index.

How?

S&P Dow Jones Indices - which oversees the benchmark - categorizes Meta Platforms (Nasdaq: META) and Alphabet (Nasdaq: GOOG) not as tech companies but as communication services stocks.

E-commerce leader Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) is classified as a consumer discretionary stock.

And Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA) - a leader in artificial intelligence, robotics, and autonomous driving - is classified as an auto play.

Put these four behemoths into the tech category where they belong, and the sector weighting in the S&P 500 grows to a whopping 45%.

That would be great if history showed that tech stocks are perpetual outperformers.

But what history shows instead is that the sector tends to overheat. Then it lags, sometimes badly.

When that happens - as it has in every previous market cycle - look out below.

So what should investors do who believe in broad diversification and rock-bottom fees?

Invest in an equal-weight S&P 500 index, like Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (NYSE: RSP).

Here are the pros and cons...

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Unlike the traditional market cap weighted S&P 500, each stock in this fund carries the same weight, avoiding overexposure to mega cap companies.

(For example, giants like Nvidia and Microsoft represent just 0.2% apiece in this portfolio versus more than 12% in a traditional S&P 500 index fund.)

Reduced concentration lessens the risk tied to sector bubbles or individual high-flyers.

The equal-weight index also provides a higher yield (1.6% vs 1%), offering more income for investors.

Plus, they offer greater participation from small and mid-sized firms, which - believe it or not - have historically provided superior returns to large caps over the long term. As they also have in 2026.

What are the drawbacks?

Well, you can guess the first: potential underperformance during mega cap tech rallies.

Small- and mid-sized stocks can also be more volatile, making the funds themselves a bit more volatile.

There is also higher turnover - and thus higher costs. The fund above has an average expense ratio of 0.2%.

That's tiny but still twice the expense ratio of the SPDR S&P 500 Trust (NYSE: SPY).

Plus, the quarterly rebalancing in an equal-weight fund has tax ramifications.

Whereas most index funds are highly tax efficient, these funds occasionally distribute realized capital gains after top performers are trimmed back.

That's why equal-weight funds are ideally owned in a qualified retirement plan where they will compound tax-deferred.

However, die-hard indexers often say there is a single overriding reason they prefer the market cap weighted approach to an equal-weighted one.

Higher returns.

No one can argue that equal-weighted index funds have outperformed market-weighted ones over the past few years. They haven't.

However, they certainly have over the long haul.

Over the past 25 years, in fact, MSCI's U.S. equal-weight index has outperformed its size-weighted counterpart by an average of 1.2 percentage points a year.

Some readers may think that's not a big deal. Think again.

An investor in an equal-weight fund would be one-third richer at the end of the period.

In other words, if your investment in a traditional S&P 500 over the past 25 years grew to $1 million, congratulations!

Yet it takes some of the shine off to learn that an identical investment in an equal-weighted index over the same period would have grown to more than $1.3 million.

(Or that $10 million would have turned into over $13 million instead.)

The second approach required no additional time. No additional work. Just a tiny tweak that made a difference of hundreds of thousands - or millions - of dollars.

These are the considerable advantages: less concentration risk, more income, and vastly better long-term performance.

If you are a long-term investor with fresh money to put to work today - especially if it's in a retirement account - it should go into an equal-weight index, not a market cap weighted index.

And that's especially true with mega cap tech valuations in the stratosphere, as they are today.

Good investing,

Alex

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