Earnings Report Card: Tariff Fears Fade, But Earnings Surprises Steal the Show Dear Reader,
Last year, tariffs weighed on a vast majority of companies – especially those in the S&P 500 Index.
But following the recent Supreme Court ruling that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977 doesn’t authorize President Donald Trump to impose tariffs, fewer and fewer companies are mentioning tariffs during their quarterly earnings calls. Tariff Mentions Drop for Third Straight Quarter  According to data firm FactSet, only 220 companies discussed tariffs in those calls… an 18% decline from the third-quarter 2025 high of nearly 460.
Moreover, it’s the third straight quarter where mentions of tariffs have declined.
Still, I must acknowledge that 220 companies marks the fifth-highest figure for this metric in the past decade.
This quarter’s highest mentions of tariffs comes from the industrials, materials and consumer staples sectors.
That doesn’t mean the impact of tariffs is gone… It’s just reduced.
Now, before I get into next week’s “bullish” and “bearish” earnings calls, let’s revisit an earnings call I recently made… Five Below (FIVE) Comes In Hot Last week, I highlighted discount retailer, Five Below Inc. (FIVE) as part of our “Bullish” earnings list.
The consensus suggested the company would report earnings per share (EPS) of $4… a huge jump from the $0.66 it reported the previous quarter .
The way I see it, FIVE and other discount retailers were primed to benefit from a strong holiday season and the growing need for consumers to stretch their dollars further.
I suggested that FIVE would not only hit EPS of $4 , but surpass that mark, as it had in each of the last five quarters.
Sure enough, Five Below trounced analysts’ estimates with EPS of $4.24 and $1.73 billion in sales – both year-over-year (YOY) increases of 24%.
Comparable sales jumped 15.4% following a 3% decline YOY and a 14.3% increase from the previous quarter.
These impressive results helped FIVE open yesterday’s market up 8.5%... reaching as much as 11.3% by mid-afternoon trading.
This uptrend halted a brief drop in the stock, pushing FIVE shares up 13% year to date.
Now, let’s examine potentially “bullish” earnings for next week… "Bullish" Earnings to Watch These stocks are expected to beat their EPS from the previous quarter. And if those expectations are met or exceeded, they could potentially trade higher.
For this screen, stocks must meet four criteria: - 10 or more analysts cover the stock.
- The average analyst recommendation is a “Buy.”
- It BEAT analysts’ EPS estimates for the previous quarter.
- The average analyst estimate for the current quarter's EPS is greater than the previous one.
As we approach the end of earnings season, I expanded the screen to include companies not listed on the S&P 500.
Here are five companies that made this week’s list:  There aren’t many recognizable names on this list, but Braze Inc. (BRZE) is worth a closer look.
The New York-based company specializes in operating a mobile customer engagement platform – combining messaging, audience segmentation, analytics and user support in one location.
The company lists Chime, HBO Max, Wyndham Hotels and Resorts, Canva and MetLife as its clients.
I analyzed Braze’s history of surpassing estimates, and what I discovered was extremely impressive. When it beats, it beats big.
One instance included a 403% beat, while another was 126% off analysts’ estimates.
Braze’s $0.14 EPS estimate is at the top end of what the company has reported in the last five quarters.
That tells me that if the company beats expectations, it won’t do so by much. So, I project earnings to be right in line with those expectations.
Nonetheless, any kind of earnings beat will do wonders for the stock’s “High-Risk” rating on Adam’s Green Zone Power Ratings system.
Now, let’s look at potentially “bearish” earnings for next week… "Bearish" Earnings to Watch For our “bearish” earnings screen, we’re only looking for two things: - 10 or more analysts must cover the stock.
- The average analyst estimate for the current quarter's EPS is less than the previous quarter's.
We want companies that are covered by a sufficiently large group of Wall Street analysts who collectively expect the company to report a quarter-over-quarter decline in earnings.
As with the “Bullish” earnings, I expanded this screen to include companies not listed on the S&P 500.
Here are four companies that passed this screen:  While it’s not entirely surprising, KB Home (KBH) making the list requires some context.
Analysts project the company will drop its EPS by $1 quarter over quarter.
Keep in mind that it is reporting its winter quarter, when home construction tends to slow down due to weather conditions.
So, it’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility that KBH comes in right at, or even slightly below, those expectations.
History shows that when KB Home does beat expectations, it typically isn’t by more than 7%. So, I am comfortable suggesting the company’s earnings will fall right on target with estimates.
If that does pan out, I expect KBH’s overall rating in Adam’s Green Zone Power Ratings system to drop slightly from its current “Neutral” position.
That’s all from me today.
Until next time…
Safe trading, 
Matt Clark, CMSA®
Chief Research Analyst, What My System Says Today
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