The floor is thinning out. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
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Don here... The S&P 500 is sitting near its closing lows since November. Financials are down 10% on the year. The market priced an $80 daily expected move and barely flinched. GDP, PCE, and durable goods all dropped this morning with zero market reaction. Something has to give. I spent this morning's session explaining exactly what I'm watching and when I expect it to break. In today's free session replay, you'll discover: - Why Nvidia, Broadcom, Google, and Tesla refusing to participate in sell-side activity is a warning sign. Three or four of the largest market caps are holding firm while the S&P drifts toward closing lows. If even one of them breaks, the floor disappears fast.
- How the JOLTS report quietly shifted order flow while everyone ignored it. GDP and PCE moved nothing. But two minutes after JOLTS hit, a 14-point candle printed in the S&P 500. The lesson is about what data is capable of moving order flow in this environment.
- Jeff Bierman's roadmap for the next two legs. He expects a bounce near 6,650 led by financials. Then a second leg down to 6,200. His key tell is the character of the selling. Slow and orderly means we have not found a bottom. You need violent, high-velocity capitulation to put a nail in the coffin.
- Why I shorted Bitcoin through the iBit ETF this morning. Crypto rallied 5% on the day with no clear catalyst. If the S&P 500 sells off, crypto follows. I gave myself 63 days for the thesis to play out.
The week priced a $224 expected move in the S&P. We moved $30. That is a market sitting on a spring with no one willing to press the trigger. Eventually someone does. I closed a 100% winner in Toll Brothers and repositioned into crypto. The full session walks through every decision and the exact framework behind each one. → Watch the complete session showing why stored volatility, silent tech stocks, and JOLTS data are pointing toward the same conclusion To your success, Don Kaufman
Chief Market Strategist, TheoTRADE
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