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To the future,
George Gilder
Editor, Gilder’s Technology Report
Devon Energy Bets on Scale With Coterra Acquisition
Author: Chris Markoch. Published: 2/15/2026.
Key Points
- Devon Energy’s all-stock merger with Coterra reflects accelerating consolidation across a maturing U.S. shale industry focused on efficiency over expansion.
- The combined company gains geographic diversification and scale, but investors are watching closely for dividend sustainability and potential EPS dilution.
- Analysts have responded positively, with price targets suggesting upside, though volatility may persist ahead of Devon’s upcoming earnings report.
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It was a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news week for Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN). On Feb. 11, the company announced an all-stock merger with Coterra Energy (NYSE: CTRA) that, if approved by shareholders of both companies, would create an approximately $58 billion energy company.
DVN stock was up nearly 4% before the announcement but fell 2.2% on Feb. 12. That kind of price action isn't unusual: merger announcements often attract some investors while prompting others to sell.
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Adding to the volatility is that Devon will report Q4 2025 results after the market close on Feb. 17. Analysts and investors will be listening for management's tone about the merger approval process, and one key area of interest will be the company's dividend policy.
Why Coterra? And Why Now?
Let's take those questions in reverse. The timing reflects ongoing consolidation in the oil and gas industry.
The U.S. shale sector has matured, and many companies are focusing on operational efficiency rather than simply drilling more wells—especially with some forecasts predicting weaker demand in 2026. The combined company would have greater scale, diversification and resilience, which matters while the price of oil faces pressure.
The merger also adds geographic diversification. Coterra primarily operates in the Marcellus Shale (northeast Pennsylvania), the Anadarko Basin (Oklahoma) and the Delaware Basin (southeast New Mexico and Texas). Devon is concentrated in the Delaware Basin, so the deal expands Devon's footprint and reduces its exposure to localized swings in commodity prices.
All Eyes Will Be on the Dividend
Oil and gas stocks are among the most cyclical names in the energy sector, so many large-cap producers, including Devon, pay dividends to help return cash to shareholders in volatile markets.
DVN stock's dividend currently yields about 2.18% and pays $0.24 per share quarterly. Coterra's dividend yields roughly 2.86% and pays $0.22 per share quarterly. The companies have announced plans for a combined dividend of $0.315 per share once the merger closes, an increase of about 31% from Devon's current payout.
The all-stock structure is important because it avoids adding debt to fund the transaction—critical in an industry sensitive to commodity-price swings. If oil and gas prices fall further, a heavily leveraged company would be at greater risk. The trade-off is a larger share count after the merger, which can dilute earnings per share (EPS). The combined company will need to generate sufficient cash flow to sustain and ideally grow the dividend over time.
Investors and Traders May See the Merger Differently
Income-focused, buy-and-hold investors are likely to view the deal favorably: it creates a larger, more diversified shale producer, and moving Devon's operations to Houston gives the company deeper ties to a major energy hub.
Short-term traders or investors who prioritize yield may, however, prefer to wait for more certainty about the dividend's sustainability and for clarity from management at the upcoming earnings call.
Analysts Are Signaling Approval
On the day of the announcement, Raymond James raised its price target on DVN to $52 from $44. Other analysts have set targets of $50 or higher since the start of the year.
A move to $50 would be about 10% above the current consensus price and nearly 20% above the Feb. 12 closing price. Expect continued volatility leading up to the earnings report; investors on the sidelines may want to see the results and management's commentary before taking a position.
Why Analysts Still See Big Upside in Salesforce After the SaaS Scare
Reported by Thomas Hughes. First Published: 2/16/2026.
Key Points
- Salesforce’s pullback has analysts debating risk versus opportunity, but most price targets still imply notable upside.
- The company’s AI strategy centers on unifying data and execution through Data Cloud and Agentforce, plus broad model partnerships.
- Valuation, upcoming earnings, and guidance are positioned as the key swing factors for the stock.
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Salesforce (NYSE: CRM) shares have fallen sharply, creating what looks like a deep-value opportunity amid this year's broad sell-off in software stocks. The idea of a SaaS apocalypse is likely overblown, and analysts are taking note. While AI can disrupt SaaS vendors, not all firms face the same risk. Leading AI modelers are expanding into new verticals, putting pressure on some SaaS providers — but many vendors, including Salesforce, are investing in AI to add customer value.
Salesforce has been a leader in AI, machine learning and automation for years. Those efforts culminated in the Data Cloud/Agentforce combination, which creates a unified environment for CRM data, data management and insights, plus AI-powered execution. The result is an automated end-to-end CRM platform that improves both internal and external efficiencies. On the model side, Salesforce has partnered with major AI providers, integrating access and application across its platforms.
Analysts Trimmed Targets: Highlight Market's Overreaction
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Analyst activity contributed to Salesforce's decline: several firms trimmed price targets in late 2025 and early 2026. But the market reaction appears exaggerated — the stock traded well below the lowest posted target. As of mid-February, upside potential ranges from roughly 15% at the low end to about 70% at the high end of analyst estimates.
Although the revision trend suggests downside risk relative to consensus, the $221 low-end target looks like an outlier. Most targets sit between $235 and nearly $400, with the consensus notably higher. The takeaway: while analysts disagree on the path forward, many still see meaningful double-digit upside.
Recent commentary from Wedbush analyst Dan Ives argues the SaaS sell-off has been overdone and presents a compelling buying opportunity for select names. Ives views Salesforce not as an AI laggard but as a core participant in the AI transition, and he has added the stock back into the Dan Ives Wedbush AI Revolution ETF (NYSEARCA: IVES).
That reinclusion supports a constructive outlook for the shares. Institutions — which own about 80% of the float — have been net buyers in 2026. MarketBeat's data shows institutional buying at roughly a 2-to-1 pace over the trailing 12 months, with the trend holding into early 2026. That accumulation provides a stabilizing base as prices fell. Short interest has risen in recent months but remains low enough to be unlikely to drive major moves; importantly, short-sellers have not been aggressively adding into the weakness.
Underappreciated Salesforce Could Rise Triple Digits on Valuation Alone
Whether or not disruption materializes, Salesforce's revenue and earnings outlook remains solid and appears undervalued by the market. Analysts' estimates imply the stock trades at about 16x estimated earnings for this year and under 7x on a long-term (2035) forecast, which supports the view that a 200% to 400% price gain could be possible over time if multiples re-rate. Many blue-chip tech names typically trade nearer to 30x current-year earnings; reversion toward those multiples would be a significant catalyst.
The Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings report due in late February could provide that catalyst. Analysts have been raising estimates, but consensus still sits in the single digits despite Salesforce's guidance for accelerating growth into the double digits. Guidance and commentary on AI monetization will be key drivers of the next price move.
Price action has been choppy: the stock hit fresh lows in early February and could decline further, but mid-month trading shows signs of indecision that may indicate a floor. If the market has bottomed, initial resistance levels are near $195 and $225, while critical support sits around $180.
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