Editor's note: As regular readers know, big-name tech stocks have been under pressure recently... These "leaders" have fueled the bull market's run higher. And as technical trading expert Greg Diamond says, their recent struggle is a big warning sign...
These "leaders" have fueled the bull market's run higher. And as technical trading expert Greg Diamond says, their recent struggle is a big warning sign...
Greg is an editor over at our corporate affiliate Stansberry Research. And he has more than 20 years of trading and portfolio management experience.
Greg has managed multimillion-dollar portfolios across different asset classes. He has spoken at various business schools on trading and technical analysis. And he's a member of the Market Technicians Association – holding the prestigious Chartered Market Technician ("CMT") designation.
When the Zweig Forecast and Professional Tape Reader newsletters launched in the 1980s, subscribers couldn't read them on a website.
They had to pick up the phone.
Financiers Martin Zweig and Stan Weinstein would record their latest market findings. And investors would call in on Friday afternoons to listen to the tapes.
These were the early days of technical analysis. While technology has come a long way since then, some of Zweig and Weinstein's insights live on...
The two men would often say, "Be nervous when the Generals are marching forward and the [rest of the] troops aren't following."
A slightly different situation has played out recently in technology and semiconductors... The "Generals" have been faltering, and the "troops" have been following them down.
A number of tech and semiconductor Generals – the mega-cap leaders in these sectors – have topped out in recent weeks.
That's not the kind of leadership we want to see. But we can't force the market to do what we want. We need to accept what it gives us.
Today, I'll cover what has been happening recently... and what's likely to come next.
Forget about the conflict in the Middle East. Former multibillion-dollar hedge-fund trader Greg Diamond says this wave of volatility is just the beginning. While most investors are fleeing the market, he's showing folks how to leverage this volatility for massive potential gains at the 2026 Market Crash Summit on Tuesday, March 10. Click here to sign up now.
After analyzing more than 3,000 stocks and a staggering 40,169 data points... there's a No. 1 stock that the team at our corporate affiliate Altimetry recommends buying today. In fact, according to their research, they believe this is one stock that Warren Buffett himself would buy today if he could. Find out why.
Tech and Chip Leaders Are Showing Cracks
Let's start by looking "under the hood" and examining the tech Generals. We'll begin with Apple (AAPL). Here's how the stock looked on the chart going into this week...
Apple peaked in December 2025. It then failed to make a new high by early February – an important time factor that indicated the stock likely already topped out.
We've seen similar price action recently... The stock bounced again, made an even lower high on February 25, and dropped again. This is another example of the topping-out process.
We've seen the same type of setup in Microsoft (MSFT)... Amazon (AMZN)... and Alphabet (GOOGL). These tech Generals didn't peak at the same time. But they're all going through the topping-out process.
The industrials sector has been one notable exception... The State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) has held up well compared with everything else we're looking at.
But historically, when leadership cracks, strength elsewhere doesn't last long. So, if tech continues lower, the question becomes: Do industrials roll over next? It's possible.
Now, let's shift gears to the semiconductor Generals...
We'll start by examining the biggest chipmaker of them all, Nvidia (NVDA). Here's how its stock chart looked coming into this week...
For technical traders, the reasons for the move aren't as important as the move itself.
As you can see, the stock has been dangerously close to breaking its "support" level (the solid red horizontal line on the chart). If that happens, Nvidia could drag down the broader chip space.
That includes the VanEck Semiconductor Fund (SMH)... and major holdings Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). Both of these semiconductor Generals have trended lower.
Watching for the Market's Next Move
The market's leadership – technology and semiconductors – has recently shown signs of topping out.
But as traders, we can take advantage of the volatility. These chart setups can help us read what's happening... and trade intelligently.
Both sectors could see a breakdown, a potential bounce, and then an even bigger breakdown...
Or this could be a short-term low where the market looks past any volatility. After that, we could see choppier price action.
The bottom line is, if key support levels start to break, that would likely confirm a top.
Until we see that, patience is key. Let the Generals tell us what happens next.
Good investing,
Greg Diamond, CMT Editor's note: Greg called the 2020 COVID-19 crash... the 2022 tech crash... and the 2023 bank crisis – all in advance.
And this coming Tuesday, March 10, he's going public in a free briefing – with a brand-new warning about a wave of volatility that he sees coming straight toward U.S. stocks. During the briefing, he'll also share the steps investors should take to prepare.
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks have become somewhat more Bullish than Large Cap stocks. Major indexes are mixed.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Energy
+2.6%
Communication
+1.47%
Consumer Discretionary
-0.43%
Information Technology
-0.59%
Utilities
-0.59%
Real Estate
-0.66%
Health Care
-2.23%
Financial
-2.42%
Industrials
-2.63%
Consumer Staples
-3.88%
Materials
-4.09%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Telecom Services
16
19
3
Over the past 6 months, the Telecom subsector (XTL) has outperformed the S&P 500 by +33.90%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Very Strong, with more Bullish than Bearish stocks. It is currently ranked #5 of 21 subsectors and has moved down 1 slot over the past week.
Top Stocks
ADTN
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc
BAND
Bandwidth Inc.
FFIV
F5, Inc.
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
TTD
+18.36%
EXPE
+13.44%
BKNG
+8.46%
LYB
+6.4%
INTU
+6.05%
Losers
GLW
-6.97%
LUV
-6.89%
MRNA
-6.87%
UPS
-5.82%
FIX
-5.74%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Reporting Today
Rating
Before Open
After Close
Earnings Surprises
CIEN Ciena Corporation
Q0
$1.35
Beat by $0.18
COO The Cooper Companies, Inc.
Q1
$1.10
Beat by $0.07
KR The Kroger Co.
Q4
$1.28
Beat by $0.08
BURL Burlington Stores, Inc.
Q4
$4.89
Beat by $0.14
MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc.
Q0
$0.80
Beat by $0.01
* * * *
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