Revisiting Jan. 26 In "The Newsletter That Can't Be Sold"The importance of an equation... not a model... not an algorithm... but math.
Dear Fellow Traveler: On January 26, 2026, I did something that most people considered a bit insane. I dumped my paper holdings of gold and silver ETFs and other funds… I tossed up my hands, and warned that something was wrong… deeply wrong… in what I called the Viagra and Popsicle Stick market. And I started to warn that investors needed to reassess their entire portfolios as we headed into tax season. Two months later, here we are…
Private credit is melting down, bond yields are rising, this war is getting worse, oil prices are surging, and other unknowns remain… even as the Fed injects $40 billion a month into a broken banking system facing reserve pressure during tax season. On January 26, the cap-weighted average of our Momentum score turned negative, while our intraday momentum (a crude visualization at the time, though it worked) was breaking down.
I warned about a “Risk Off” event… building on the back of private credit and the pressures associated with tax season, broader momentum, and the non-stop issues tied to speculation in metals, Japan’s market weakness, and whatever unknowns would soon arrive (turned out that the war was hell of an unknown). Days prior, on January 21, I encouraged everyone to look long and hard at their portfolios. I told readers to ask why they owned what they did (look at every single stock position), and if they didn’t have a good answer, to sell and raise cash. On January 28, our signal officially went negative. (The links include that insight). That week, people questioned how momentum could be negative, but markets were at all-time highs… as I explained, it’s not just about selling pressure (which was ample). It’s about reversal probabilities, too. We didn’t have to wait too long… On January 30, gold and silver collapsed from $5,500 and $120, respectively. On the morning of February 5, I warned… based on our data, it’s going to get really “loud soon.” And that day, we had the worst momentum selloff in the post-COVID era. This headline says it all from 24 hours later…
South Korea stocks would later crash… again, momentum-driven… Private credit, which I have been warning about since the fall of 2025, only worsened. Then the war started, and now we have a compounding impact of rising oil prices, tight central bank policies (rate hikes coming?), collapsing metals, worsening collateral markets, and a stronger U.S. dollar weighing on everything… We’ve been on top of this not just since January… But since August 2024, days before the Nikkei crash… and if we really want to go further back, since February 21, 2020… People can say we got lucky with this macro-liquidity/momentum signal in January… But they’d have to explain all of the similar selloffs and momentum outcomes that I did in print or on camera on January 3, 2022; April 6, 2022; June 8, 2022; August 28, 2022; March 7, 2023 (days before the SVB blowup); August 1, 2024 (before the Nikkei crash), the December 10, 2024 warning letter I wrote from my hospital bed); February 21, 2025; March 26, 2025; and the multiple November 2025 signals on Japan/private credit, before the short squeeze I also called after the nation’s stimulus annoucement.)
That’s the list of market calls that those copywriters and finpub executives who wouldn’t sell this letter demand from market editors all the time, so they can sell a successful financial newsletter… It’s called “A Track Record.” Turns out they did all of us here at Substack a favor... “Risk Off” Headlines are Way Too LateThe interesting thing is that I’m now seeing headlines suggesting that we are in “Risk Off” mode. Just two weeks ago, I explained that the people claiming this war was “priced in” didn’t understand how momentum really works and how liquidity operates. Around this time, I continued to beat the drum that “Cash is a position.” - something I’ve always done - and did back on January 30 - in Six Rules for Negative Momentum. The “Risk Off” articles and recommendations are now way too late… And it’s always this way… well, after the bigger institutions have exited. This isn’t our first experience with this… last year, our signal turned negative on February 21, 2025. Roughly 12,400 people read this article explaining that we were in a liquidity gap… and that we needed to watch the FNGD for clues on leverage leaving the system. The FNGD roared… and the stock market bled lower into March 12, 2025.
Our signal stayed negative until March 26… (we called yet another a Short Squeeze along the way).
It turned green for a day, and then collapsed into dust again… with the market cratering into April 7, when everyone suddenly started warning about the next Great Depression. They missed it two days later when we talked about how insiders loaded up… and eventually, when momentum formally turned green two weeks later. Well… Momentum is my sandbox… big, broad, and a great flashing light that connects the upstream plumbing of global finance with the performance of the equity markets. Now that we have a visual representation of this, it’s impossible to ignore.
We are seeing the visualization of momentum breaking down in real time as liquidity and risk both… Why? Because of math. Because we can see flows exiting markets on the edge of the bell curve, signaling to retail traders and investors that risk is accelerating. For years, I was told no one wanted this newsletter by large institutions and executive teams who apparently only wanted to sell options products to strangers… But the product they were really selling, via sensational marketing, was “a feeling” of hope, not anything based on results or on a goal of retention. But I’m eager to show you - every day - that managing risk for investors is far more important than just trying to blindly call direction. Money Printer Pro and our signals act as a conviction engine for you across all other trading and investing services, and should help you understand that the plumbing of the financial world and the impact of momentum are what really drive prices. And I now have over 1,750 active subscribers who see value in this every single day… Here is what people are saying… You can see it on my recommendations page.
That last email hits hard for me because we protected what this investor had… we didn’t promise to make him 10x his money. We focused on helping to manage risk. And told everyone when it was safe to return to the pool. Today, I invite you to join us. I assure you that the rebound this market eventually sees will likely occur when fear is at its peak. And… what’s worse, is that most investors will miss it… Like they did on April 7, 2020… Or January 3, 2023. Or April 9, 2025… People lose on the way down, sell, and then watch as the markets rebound and equity buckets refill with wealth that used to be theirs. I see a different path to all of this. We track insider buying, liquidity, monetary and fiscal policy, and, of course, momentum, which you can watch in real-time, any time at MoneyPrinterPro.com. One last thing… On Friday, I received an email from a reader who said the following…
He’s right. I actually do care. And I take it all very seriously… your money, your time, your risk, and your future. Someone had to man this wall. Stay positive, Garrett Baldwin About Me and the Money Printer Me and the Money Printer is a daily publication covering the financial markets through three critical equations. We track liquidity (money in the financial system), momentum (where money is moving in the system), and insider buying (where Smart Money at companies is moving their money). Combining these elements with a deep understanding of central banking and how the global system works has allowed us to navigate financial cycles and boost our probability of success as investors and traders. This insight is based on roughly 17 years of intensive academic work at four universities, extensive collaboration with market experts, and the joy of trial and error in research. You can take a free look at our worldview and thesis right here. Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.
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