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Roger Scott
Whale Watching: BlackRock's Massive Bet on Nebius Group
Authored by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Originally Published: 2/17/2026.
Key Points
- The world's largest asset manager has moved from a passive observer to a top stakeholder by executing an accumulation strategy in the Nebius Group.
- Major technology clients are funding the aggressive infrastructure expansion through prepayments to secure future computing capacity for artificial intelligence.
- The strategic acquisition of a specialized search platform allows Nebius to evolve from a commodity hardware renter into an essential software provider.
- Special Report: [Sponsorship-Ad-6-Format3]
Retail investors live in a world defined by daily headlines. A missed earnings estimate or a slight delay in a product launch can send share prices tumbling as individual traders react to immediate news.
Emotions run high, and decisions are often made out of fear of loss or missing out. Large asset managers, however, play a different game.
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In the case of Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS), recent market activity has been volatile following a mixed fourth-quarter earnings report.
While the market debated revenue timing and short-term misses, regulatory filings revealed that smart money was quietly executing a large accumulation strategy.
The latest 13F filings, quarterly disclosures that show the holdings of major investment firms, reveal that BlackRock Inc. (NYSE: BLK)—the world's largest asset manager—has taken a sizable position in the artificial intelligence infrastructure company. While the retail market was nervous, BlackRock was buying, signaling a level of conviction that can create a psychological floor for Nebius's stock price.
Inside the 9.4 Million Share Purchase
The recent regulatory filing tells a story of aggressive accumulation. According to the 13F-HR form filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Feb. 12, 2026, BlackRock owned 9,431,400 shares of Nebius Group as of Dec. 31, 2025. Based on the closing price at the end of that reporting period, the stake was valued at roughly $789 million.
To grasp the magnitude, compare that to the prior quarter:
- Previous filing: BlackRock reported holding 23,866 shares in November 2025.
- Current filing: BlackRock reports holding 9,431,400 shares in December 2025.
- The delta: This represents a quarter-over-quarter increase of approximately 39,418%.
Institutional investors often start with toe-hold positions—small stakes used to monitor a company without committing significant capital. Moving from roughly 23,000 shares to over 9.4 million indicates a strategic shift from monitoring to high-conviction ownership.
BlackRock has effectively moved from passive observer to top-tier stakeholder. This scale of buying is rarely an accident or a simple index adjustment; it typically reflects a deliberate capital allocation by one of the most sophisticated investment teams in the world. They are not merely testing the waters—they are diving in.
Prepaid Success: The $20 Billion Blueprint
Why would an institutional giant invest nearly $800 million in a company that recently missed Wall Street's revenue estimates? The answer likely lies in Nebius's aggressive 2026 guidance and how that spending is financed.
In its recent earnings report, Nebius forecasted capital expenditures (CAPEX) of $16 billion to $20 billion for 2026. To an inexperienced investor, spending up to $20 billion might look like dangerous cash burn. Historically, companies that spend faster than they earn are seen as high risk. Institutional analysts, however, view this situation differently.
During the current AI infrastructure shortage, companies rarely commit billions to build capacity unless customers are lined up. In effect, BlackRock is buying the company's revenue backlog—future contracted revenue rather than speculative demand.
- The funding model: Nebius says about 60% of the planned spending will be funded through customer prepayments.
- The customers: Tech giants like Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Meta (NASDAQ: META) are effectively paying Nebius up front to build the data centers and install the GPUs they need.
That dynamic meaningfully de-risks the investment. Nebius's Annualized Run Rate (ARR) reached $1.2 billion in December 2025, and management guided full-year 2026 revenue to $3 billion–$3.4 billion. By taking this stake, BlackRock is buying into the physical infrastructure of the AI era—servers, power, and connectivity—backed by contracts with highly creditworthy customers. It isn't betting on a startup finding customers; it is betting on a contractor fulfilling orders that are already signed.
Strategic Foresight: The Agentic AI Pivot
Institutional investing is about foresight—projecting where a company will be in six to 12 months rather than reacting to where it is today. BlackRock established this large position before Nebius announced a strategic pivot, suggesting its analysts modeled the company's evolution correctly.
On Feb. 10, 2026, Nebius announced the acquisition of Tavily for approximately $275 million. Tavily specializes in agentic AI, which enables models to search the web in real time to answer complex questions. The deal moves Nebius up the value chain.
If a company only rents servers, it's selling a commodity and risks customers migrating to the cheapest provider. By integrating Tavily's search capabilities into its cloud, Nebius becomes a software-enabled platform rather than merely a hardware provider.
That makes the product sticky: customers are less likely to leave when the software is integrated into their workflows. BlackRock's entry suggests its analysts value Nebius not as a one-dimensional hardware utility but as a platform with higher-margin, recurring software attributes—supporting a higher valuation.
The Geopolitical Discount Is Gone
For much of the past two years, Nebius Group carried a geopolitical discount tied to its separation from former parent Yandex. Many investors avoided the stock because of that risk and the complexity of the divestment.
BlackRock's roughly 39,000% position increase sends a clear signal that institutional due diligence is complete and the narrative is shifting. The firm appears to view Nebius as a Dutch-headquartered, global AI infrastructure and platform player. While retail traders may focus on a single quarter's revenue miss, BlackRock is looking at the 2026 roadmap: multi‑billion-dollar infrastructure expansion, prepayments from major tech customers, and a move up the value chain into software.
For individual investors, the gap between short-term price volatility and sustained institutional accumulation offers a clear takeaway: the builders of the AI age are still early in their expansion.
Alphabet's Pullback: A Second Chance for Long-Term Investors?
Authored by Ryan Hasson. Originally Published: 2/16/2026.
Key Points
- Shares of Alphabet have declined almost 8% month-over-month, fueled by broader tech weakness and CapEx concerns rather than any deterioration in Alphabet’s core fundamentals.
- The company continues to post staggering growth and earnings beats, topping expectations in its last three consecutive quarters.
- With shares approaching key support, valuation is becoming more compelling for patient investors.
- Special Report: [Sponsorship-Ad-6-Format3]
Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) has been one of the strongest performers among mega-cap technology peers over the past year, rising more than 68% through the Feb. 12 session. That rally has been driven by AI leadership, consistent earnings beats and accelerating growth in cloud and advertising.
Despite those fundamentals, the stock has turned negative year-to-date and has fallen more than 8% over the past month amid broader tech weakness. The question for investors is straightforward: is this pullback an early sign of fatigue, or a longer-term buying opportunity?
Alphabet Pulls Back Following Impressive Earnings
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Alphabet's latest quarterly results offered little reason for the recent weakness. The company beat both earnings and revenue expectations: EPS was $2.82 versus consensus near $2.63, while revenue reached $113.83 billion, topping forecasts.
For the full year, Alphabet reported $402.8 billion in revenue and $10.81 in EPS, marking 17% year-over-year growth. The results underscore the company's ability to scale profitably while continuing to invest heavily in AI and infrastructure.
Google Cloud again stood out. Fourth-quarter cloud revenue surged 48% year-over-year (YOY) to $17.66 billion, pushing the business past a $70 billion annualized run rate.
The backlog expanded 55% quarter over quarter to $240 billion, reflecting strengthening enterprise demand.
Search revenue climbed 17% year-over-year, easing concerns that generative AI would materially disrupt Google's core business. YouTube generated more than $60 billion in 2025 revenue from ads and subscriptions combined, while Alphabet now counts 325 million paid consumer subscriptions across its ecosystem.
On the AI front, Gemini has surpassed 750 million monthly active users, with over 10 billion tokens processed per minute via API usage — evidence of rapidly expanding enterprise and developer adoption.
The Selloff: CapEx Concerns or Broader Tech Weakness?
Shares initially dipped after earnings on news that Alphabet expects capital expenditures (CapEx) of $175 billion to $185 billion in 2026. Management said the increased spending will primarily support AI compute capacity, expand cloud infrastructure and enhance user experiences across platforms. Competing at scale in AI requires sustained investment, and Alphabet appears willing to lean in.
That said, the pullback looks less about CapEx alone and more like part of a broader weakness among software and large-cap tech names. When high-multiple growth stocks rotate down, even fundamentally sound leaders can get caught in the downdraft.
Alphabet's leadership position, however, remains intact.
AI Momentum and Waymo Expansion Continue
Innovation is continuing apace. Alphabet recently rolled out upgrades to its Gemini Deep Think model, improving performance in math and scientific reasoning. The model integrates Google Search to reduce inaccuracies and assist researchers in practical applications — another step toward AI utility at scale.
Meanwhile, Waymo is widening its autonomous-driving footprint. The company has begun offering rides powered by its sixth-generation autonomous system and plans to expand service into 20 additional cities, including Tokyo and London.
Analyst sentiment reflects the company's fundamentals. Alphabet maintains a Moderate Buy rating, with a consensus price target implying roughly 18% upside — the highest consensus target on record.
Is GOOGL Approaching Value Territory?
Technically, shares are approaching a key support zone near $300, with secondary support closer to $280. Holding either level would likely form a higher low within the broader uptrend.
Valuation supports the case for buyers. Compared to its Magnificent Seven peers, Alphabet's trailing and forward multiples sit near the middle of the group. While the stock currently trades slightly above its three-year average P/E, a pullback into the $280–$300 range would bring valuation closer to historical norms and could improve the risk-reward picture for long-term investors.
In short: fundamentals remain strong, AI leadership is expanding, and the company's capital investments signal ambition rather than weakness. If pressure on the broader tech sector continues, Alphabet's recent decline may look less like a warning and more like a buying opportunity for patient investors.
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