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Further Reading from MarketBeat What a Gold Miner and an Oil Trust Reveal About Today's MarketAuthor: Jessica Mitacek. First Published: 3/20/2026. 
Key Points - As the bull market enters its fourth year, investors are abandoning underperforming tech stocks in favor of energy and materials, which are significantly outperforming the broader S&P 500.
- A weakening U.S. dollar, aggressive tariff policies, and escalating Middle East conflicts are driving a flight to safety, fueling a massive rally in commodities like oil and gold.
- Stocks like Vista Gold and Permian Basin Royalty Trust signal that the commodity run is broad-based, supported by strong profit margins and favorable technical indicators.
- Special Report: Elon Musk's $1 Quadrillion AI IPO
During healthy bull markets, investors routinely embrace risk-on strategies. High-flying tech stocks tend to outperform while defensive sectors and safe-haven assets are often disregarded. But in 2026 we're seeing the opposite. Now in its fourth year, the bull market has likely entered the late stages of its cycle. The Magnificent Seven continue to underperform, software stocks are suffering some of their worst losses since the last bear market, and investors have embarked on a flight to safety that has benefited cyclical and defensive investments. I've worked for the CIA, personally met four US presidents, and spent 45 years studying the markets—calling Black Monday six weeks before it happened, predicting the fall of the Berlin Wall, and pinpointing the exact bottom in 2009. But what I'm about to share with you is the boldest prediction of my career. After meeting Elon Musk face-to-face at a private gathering of Wall Street elites and months of my own research, I'm now staking my reputation on one date: March 26, 2026. That's when I believe Elon will announce the SpaceX IPO—what Bloomberg is calling the biggest listing of all time. I have found an access code that lets you grab a pre-IPO stake before it happens, but in 72 hours, your window could close. Click here to see how to claim your SpaceX access code That has produced outsized gains for two sectors: energy and materials. The last time either sector led the S&P 500 was in 2021–2022, when energy led into and throughout the most recent bear market. There is now evidence these sectors could maintain their leadership, highlighted by a small-cap gold developer and an oil and gas trust that are likely to continue mirroring the broader trend. Macro Factors Continue Rewarding Underappreciated Sectors Energy leads all S&P 500 sectors with a year-to-date gain of nearly 28%, followed by materials at roughly 10%. The broader market, by contrast, is down more than 3% on the year, with financials trailing about 11%. That's hardly a coincidence. The U.S. Dollar Index remains down more than 8% since January 2025. The Trump administration's tariff policies have fueled a "sell America" trade, and ongoing policy uncertainty has prompted outflows from U.S. equities in favor of foreign markets. At the same time, consumer confidence has plunged to its lowest level in more than a decade, the labor market has weakened, and a geopolitically unstable environment has disrupted global markets from energy to agriculture. In turn, speculative sectors are suffering while energy and materials—driven by absolute demand—continue to thrive. Two companies provide clues that the current macro backdrop is likely to favor more of the same. Vista Gold Suggests the Precious Metal Rally Has Legs Gold got a lift when the United States and Israel began coordinated military operations against Iran on Feb. 28, further propelling the precious metal's price. Even before the latest escalation, heightened market volatility, trade uncertainty, and preemptive military actions became hallmarks of the Trump administration, benefiting gold prices. Investors should expect more of this environment going forward, as evidenced by Vista Gold (NYSEAMERICAN: VGZ), a small-cap gold miner that reported full-year and Q4 2025 results on Friday, March 13. As a development company, Vista Gold is pre-revenue, so its Q4 EPS of negative $0.06 wasn't the main story. More important: the company ended 2025 with no debt. Vista Gold also finished the year with a strong cash position and nearly $42 million raised to advance the Mt Todd gold project in Australia's Northern Territory—a large, advanced-stage project with "measured and indicated gold resources totaling 9.1 million ounces," according to the company. The company emphasized progress on Mt Todd. With a projected 30-year mine life, Mt Todd offers meaningful scale and demonstrated economic viability. A feasibility study last year reported 5.2 million ounces of proven and probable reserves and showed strong economics for a development sized at 15,000 tonnes per day (about 5.3 million tonnes per year). The stock, which gained 172% over the past year, illustrates how bullish sentiment toward the gold industry has become. Vista Gold is forecasting a 44.7% after-tax internal rate of return and a payback period of roughly 1.7 years—metrics that underline the enthusiasm among investors. Permian Basin Royalty Trust Indicates That Energy's Run Has Just Begun The outbreak of war in Iran has roiled oil markets, with fallout felt from the gas pump to utility bills. That has benefited oil majors, with ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), and Shell (NYSE: SHEL) all recently hitting all-time highs. Lower in the energy hierarchy, companies like Permian Basin Royalty Trust (NYSE: PBT) show the rally is broad and still in its early stages. Amid speculation oil prices could reach $200 per barrel, the key story with Permian—similar to Vista Gold—is more about future expectations than past results. Despite the stock climbing 106% over the past year, shareholders may have more room to run as margins remain strong. According to an SEC filing from Feb. 17, the trust—which holds royalty interests in oil and gas properties in the Permian Basin in West Texas—reported a profit margin of more than 87% on its Texas Royalty Properties. That announcement came before the Iran conflict escalated later that month, so PBT's net income is likely to increase given higher oil prices. At the time of the filing the trust cited oil at $56.78 per barrel; today, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. crude benchmark, is trading around $95.48 per barrel. On Tuesday, March 10, the stock crossed above its 200-day moving average—a bullish long-term indicator that suggests further appreciation may lie ahead, supported by the tightening global oil supply. Fundamentally, Permian Basin is operating in solid financial health, having been in TradeSmith's Green Zone for more than nine months. | 
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