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Exclusive Content from MarketBeat.com Where's the Bottom, and When Will It Be Time to Sell D-Wave?Reported by Nathan Reiff. Article Published: 3/23/2026. 
Key Points - D-Wave Quantum shares are down about 44% since the start of the year, though the company's RSI is near 30, suggesting it may be oversold.
- At the same time, the firm's price remains significantly elevated relative to its sales, which are still quite low in absolute terms.
- Investors must try to reconcile these concerns while also trying to ascertain how much farther shares may fall in the current selloff.
- Special Report: Elon Musk: This Could Turn $100 into $100,000
By many measures, quantum computing leader D-Wave Quantum Inc. (NYSE: QBTS) has had an excellent start to 2026. The most notable statistic: in January alone its bookings exceeded total bookings for all of 2025, driven mainly by a $10 million deal with a Fortune 100 customer and a system sale worth about $20 million. At the same time, the company's cash reserves remain strong as D-Wave pursues a dual-approach strategy with multiple technological paths. Still, QBTS shares are not thriving. They have fallen roughly 44% so far in 2026, despite the company's encouraging updates. For current holders, the question of where the bottom may be is likely top of mind; prospective buyers may be wondering whether to wait for a deeper dip. While it's impossible to predict exactly how much farther the selloff might go, a close look at D-Wave's operating runway helps limit the immediate dilution risk. Just How Rational Is the D-Wave Selloff? At first glance, D-Wave's selloff seems paradoxical given solid fundamentals and an upbeat earnings report. But there are rational reasons investors might be trimming exposure. D-Wave has seen rapid sales growth—revenue nearly tripled year over year in the latest fiscal period. However, in absolute terms revenue remains small, under $25 million annually, especially for a company with a market value approaching $6 billion. Coupled with a massive rally through much of early 2025, the share price has become enormously inflated relative to sales. The company's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio approached nearly 327 last year; even after the recent decline, QBTS still trades at more than 237 times sales. That disparity helps explain why some investors view the selloff as justified. Determining the Bottom Is Tricky, But D-Wave's Cash Reserves Provide Important Insulation With a relative strength index (RSI) around 30, D-Wave shows signs of being oversold. Recent selling may have been excessive, but that alone doesn't guarantee the stock has hit its low—and predicting an exact bottom is likely impossible. Investors should, however, note D-Wave's cash position, which stood at about $885 million at the end of the last quarter. Based on the company's most recent burn rate, that suggests at least three years of operating runway even without further revenue growth. Put another way, a complete collapse to zero seems unlikely in the foreseeable future. The strong cash cushion provides important insulation against continued selloff pressures. What Signs Might Investors Watch For to Sell? If it's hard to gauge how much farther shares might fall—especially given that Wall Street currently assigns D-Wave a Moderate Buy rating with roughly 132% upside—investors should monitor specific warning signs. First, watch the fundamentals: a slowdown in bookings or a notable acceleration in the cash burn rate without matching revenue gains would be red flags. Second, execution risk matters. If D-Wave's core gate-model system—being developed alongside its annealing offerings—encounters delays or technical setbacks, investor enthusiasm could weaken further. Finally, external factors such as tariffs, supply-chain disruptions, or other macro risks could change the calculus around how long the company can sustain operations with its cash on hand and how quickly it can grow revenue. Ultimately, investors must weigh competing arguments: the company appears oversold after a steep recent decline, yet it remains highly valued relative to current sales. That distinction may separate traders hoping for a price reversal from long-term believers who expect D-Wave to emerge as a leader in the multi-decade race toward quantum dominance. |
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