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More Reading from MarketBeat What a Gold Miner and an Oil Trust Reveal About Today's MarketAuthor: Jessica Mitacek. Published: 3/20/2026. 
Key Points - As the bull market enters its fourth year, investors are abandoning underperforming tech stocks in favor of energy and materials, which are significantly outperforming the broader S&P 500.
- A weakening U.S. dollar, aggressive tariff policies, and escalating Middle East conflicts are driving a flight to safety, fueling a massive rally in commodities like oil and gold.
- Stocks like Vista Gold and Permian Basin Royalty Trust signal that the commodity run is broad-based, supported by strong profit margins and favorable technical indicators.
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During healthy bull markets, investors routinely embrace risk-on strategies. High-flying tech stocks tend to outperform while defensive sectors and safe-haven assets are often disregarded. But in 2026 we're seeing the opposite. The bull market, now in its fourth year, has likely entered the late stage of its cycle. The Magnificent Seven continue to underperform, software stocks have suffered some of their worst losses since the last bear market, and investors are embarking on a flight to safety that has benefited cyclical and defensive investments. That has produced outsized gains for two sectors: energy and materials. The last time either sector led the S&P 500 was in 2021 for energy in the lead-up to the last bear market, and 2022 when energy led throughout the bear market. There's evidence those two sectors may hold onto their leadership this year, highlighted by a gold development company and an oil-and-gas trust that appear likely to continue mirroring the trend. Macro Factors Continue Rewarding Underappreciated Sectors Energy leads all S&P 500 sectors with a year-to-date gain of nearly 28%, followed by materials at roughly 10%. The broader market, by contrast, is down more than 3% on the year, with financials trailing at an 11% loss. That's hardly a coincidence. The U.S. Dollar Index remains down more than 8% since January 2025. The Trump administration's tariff policies have helped fuel the "sell America" trade, and ongoing uncertainty has prompted outflows from U.S. equities in favor of foreign markets. Additionally, consumer confidence has plunged to its lowest level in more than a decade, the labor market has weakened, and a geopolitical landscape rife with instability has seen numerous conflicts disrupt global markets from energy to agriculture. As a result, speculative sectors are suffering while energy and materials—driven by demand—continue to thrive. Two companies provide clues that the current macro environment may favor more of the same. Vista Gold Suggests the Precious Metal Rally Has Legs Gold prices got a lift when the United States and Israel began coordinated military operations against Iran on Feb. 28, further propelling the precious metal's price. Even before the latest escalation, heightened market volatility, trade uncertainty, and preemptive military actions have been hallmarks of the administration and have benefited gold prices. Investors should expect more of the same going forward, as evidenced by Vista Gold (NYSEAMERICAN: VGZ), a small-cap gold developer that reported full-year and Q4 2025 results on Friday, March 13. As a development company, Vista Gold is pre-revenue, so its Q4 earnings per share (EPS) of negative $0.06 wasn't the headline. More notable, the company ended 2025 with no debt. Vista Gold also finished the year with a strong cash position and nearly $42 million raised to advance the Mt Todd gold project in Australia's Northern Territory—a large, advanced-stage project with "measured and indicated gold resources totaling 9.1 million ounces," according to the company's website. The biggest takeaway was the company's confidence in progress at Mt Todd. With a projected 30-year mine life, Mt Todd offers significant scale and demonstrated economic viability. A feasibility study last year reported 5.2 million ounces of proven and probable reserves while outlining strong economics for a development processing 15,000 tonnes per day (5.3 million tonnes per year). The stock, which gained 172% over the past year, exemplifies how bullish sentiment toward gold is stronger in 2026 than it has been in years. Conditions appear favorable for shareholders, with Vista Gold forecasting a 1.7-year after-tax internal rate of return (IRR) of 44.7%. Permian Basin Royalty Trust Indicates That Energy's Run Has Just Begun The outbreak of war in Iran has roiled oil markets, with fallout felt from the gas pump to utility bills. That has benefited the oil majors, with ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), and Shell (NYSE: SHEL) all recently hitting all-time highs. Lower in the energy hierarchy, companies like Permian Basin Royalty Trust (NYSE: PBT) suggest the oil-and-gas rally is broad and still in its early stages. Similar to Vista Gold, the key story for Permian is less about past results and more about future expectations. Despite the stock climbing 106% over the past year, there may be more upside as its margins remain strong. According to an SEC filing last month, the trust—which holds royalty interests in oil and gas properties in the Permian Basin in West Texas—reported a profit margin of more than 87% on its Texas Royalty Properties. That Feb. 17 announcement preceded the Iran war, meaning PBT's net income is likely to continue increasing from the average price per barrel it cited in February. At the time, the trust used oil prices of $56.78 per barrel. Today, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. crude benchmark, is trading near $95.48 per barrel. On Tuesday, March 10, the stock crossed above its 200-day moving average—a bullish long-term indicator that suggests further appreciation may be ahead, supported by a tightening global oil supply. Fundamentally, Permian Basin is operating in solid financial health and has ranked in TradeSmith's Green Zone for over nine months. | 
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