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Exclusive Story from MarketBeat What a Gold Miner and an Oil Trust Reveal About Today's MarketAuthored by Jessica Mitacek. Article Posted: 3/20/2026. 
Key Points - As the bull market enters its fourth year, investors are abandoning underperforming tech stocks in favor of energy and materials, which are significantly outperforming the broader S&P 500.
- A weakening U.S. dollar, aggressive tariff policies, and escalating Middle East conflicts are driving a flight to safety, fueling a massive rally in commodities like oil and gold.
- Stocks like Vista Gold and Permian Basin Royalty Trust signal that the commodity run is broad-based, supported by strong profit margins and favorable technical indicators.
- Special Report: Elon Musk: This Could Turn $100 into $100,000
During healthy bull markets, investors routinely embrace risk-on strategies. High-flying tech stocks tend to outperform while defensive sectors and safe-haven assets are often disregarded. But in 2026 we're seeing the opposite. Now in its fourth year, the bull market has likely entered the late stage of its cycle. The Magnificent Seven continue to underperform, software stocks are suffering some of their worst losses since the last bear market, and investors are embarking on a flight to safety that has benefited cyclical and defensive investments. Why is the White House suddenly building a new "Fort Knox?" Hidden inside this fortress lies a critical new resource Moody's calls "the new oil." Demand is doubling every 6 months, and Fox News is calling it the "new arms race." On April 20, a major event could ignite a handful of under-the-radar stocks, setting off what could be biggest commodity boom in history. Click here for all the details. That has resulted in outsized gains for two sectors: energy and materials. The last time either of those sectors led the S&P 500 was in 2021, when energy topped the index in the lead-up to the last bear market, and in 2022, when energy led throughout the bear market. Now, there's evidence that those two sectors may hold onto their market-leading gains this year, underscored by a gold development company and an oil and gas trust that are likely to continue mirroring the trend. Macro Factors Continue Rewarding Underappreciated Sectors Energy leads all S&P 500 sectors with a year-to-date gain of nearly 28%, followed by materials at roughly 10%. The broader market, by contrast, is down more than 3% on the year, with financials trailing at an 11% loss. That's hardly a coincidence. The U.S. Dollar Index remains down more than 8% since January 2025. The Trump administration's tariff policies have helped fuel a 'sell America' trade, and ongoing uncertainty has resulted in outflows from U.S. equities that have benefited foreign markets. Additionally, consumer confidence has plunged to its lowest level in more than a decade, the labor market has weakened, and a geopolitical landscape rife with instability has seen numerous conflicts disrupt global markets from energy to agriculture. In turn, speculative sectors are suffering while energy and materials—driven by real demand—continue to thrive. Two companies now provide clues that the current macro environment is well-positioned for more of the same. Vista Gold Suggests the Precious Metal Rally Has Legs Gold prices jumped when the United States and Israel began coordinated military operations against Iran on Feb. 28, further propelling the precious metal's price. Even before the latest Middle East escalation, heightened market volatility, trade uncertainty, and pre-emptive military actions became hallmarks of the Trump administration, benefiting gold prices. Investors should expect more of the same going forward, as evidenced by Vista Gold (NYSEAMERICAN: VGZ), a relatively small, development-stage gold miner that reported full-year and Q4 2025 results on Friday, March 13. As a development company, Vista Gold is pre-revenue, so its Q4 earnings per share (EPS) of negative 6 cents wasn't the headline. More notable was that the company finished 2025 with no debt. Vista Gold also closed the year with a solid cash position and nearly $42 million raised to advance the Mt Todd gold project in Australia's Northern Territory—a large, advanced-stage project with measured and indicated gold resources totaling 9.1 million ounces, according to the company. The biggest takeaway was the company's confidence in progress at Mt Todd. With a projected 30-year mine life, Mt Todd offers significant scale and demonstrated economic viability. A feasibility study last year reported 5.2 million ounces of proven and probable reserves and showed strong economics for development at 15,000 tonnes per day (5.3 million tonnes per year). The stock, which gained 172% over the past year, illustrates how bullish sentiment toward gold is stronger in 2026 than it has been in years. Conditions appear ripe for shareholders to benefit: Vista Gold is forecasting an after-tax payback of 1.7 years and an internal rate of return of 44.7%. Permian Basin Royalty Trust Indicates That Energy's Run Has Just Begun The outbreak of war in Iran has roiled oil markets, with the fallout being felt from the gas pump to utility bills. That has benefited the oil majors, with ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), and Shell (NYSE: SHEL) all recently hitting all-time highs. But lower on the energy hierarchy, companies like Permian Basin Royalty Trust (NYSE: PBT) are evidence that the oil and gas rally is both broad and nascent. Amid speculation that oil prices could reach $200 per barrel, the key story with Permian—similar to Vista Gold—is less about past results and more about future expectations. Despite the stock climbing 106% over the past year, there is likely more in store for shareholders as its margins remain strong. According to an SEC filing last month, the trust—which holds royalty interests in oil and gas properties in the Permian Basin in West Texas—reported a profit margin of more than 87% on its Texas Royalty Properties. That Feb. 17 announcement came before the Iran conflict escalated later that month, meaning PBT's net income is very likely to increase from the average price per barrel it saw in February. At the time, the trust cited oil prices of $56.78 per barrel; today, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. crude benchmark, is trading at $95.48 per barrel. On March 10 the stock crossed above its 200-day moving average—a bullish long-term indicator that suggests further share appreciation may be ahead, supported by the global oil supply pinch. Fundamentally, Permian Basin is operating in strong financial health, having ranked in TradeSmith's Green Zone for more than nine months. | 
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