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Exclusive Content Rubrik's Selloff Could Be Cybersecurity's Hidden OpportunityWritten by Leo Miller. Published: 3/17/2026. 
Key Points - Cybersecurity stock Rubrik is down big in 2026, similar to names across the software industry.
- The company's latest earnings were much better than expected, and it looks poised to turn a profitability corner in 2026.
- While AI disruption fears fill the market, Rubrik's importance to its clients fortifies its position.
- Special Report: The Biggest IPO Ever: Claim Your Stake Today
Rubrik (NYSE: RBRK) is a different kind of cybersecurity company, generating impressive growth as customers recognize the value of its differentiated approach. Most cybersecurity firms focus on preventing threats by building firewalls or managing access to information. Rubrik takes a different tack. Instead of trying solely to prevent cyberattacks, the company's solutions deliver value after incidents occur. Its Preemptive Recovery Engine builds a detailed understanding of clients' data over time so that, after an attack, customers can recover data and resume operations as quickly as possible. The goal is to cut recovery time from weeks to days and minimize the revenue and reputational damage from an attack. San Francisco is the strangest city in America right now—you can hop into a self-driving car and be chauffeured by a robot, but out the window you see addicts slumped in doorways, open-air drug markets, the mentally ill screaming at the sky, and entire city blocks consumed by homeless encampments. It's ground-zero for the most disruptive technological forces of our age, and Erez lives in the Bay Area plugged into the capital, the connections, and the companies reshaping the world—the advancements in AI, blockchain, computing, and biosciences are unlike anything the world has seen before, and a tsunami of disruption is coming for everything all at once. During our most recent broadcast, we exposed what we're calling the most asymmetric opportunity of our careers: an overlooked financial company hiding a multi-billion-dollar blockchain asset Wall Street hasn't priced in—it's one of those rare situations Warren Buffett would describe as raining gold when all you have to do is step outside if you want to get rich. Watch the broadcast before the window closes now In that respect, Rubrik's offerings act like "cybersecurity insurance." You hope never to use it, but you'll be glad it's there if something goes wrong. In its latest earnings report, Rubrik posted another strong quarter. Yet the tech stock is down more than 30% in 2026, creating a potential buying opportunity in a unique cybersecurity name. RBRK Smashes Forecasts on Sales and EPS In Q4 of fiscal 2026 (FY2026), Rubrik reported revenue of $378 million, up 46%. Note that the company's fiscal year does not align with the calendar year. The firm's top-line growth comfortably exceeded expectations of roughly 33%. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $0.04, a big improvement from an $0.18 loss in the year-ago quarter. Analysts had expected an $0.11 loss, so the swing into positive territory was surprising. For the full year, adjusted loss per share narrowed to $0.01. Rubrik remains unprofitable on a GAAP basis, but the quarterly GAAP loss per share improved from $0.61 to $0.43. For the full year, the GAAP loss narrowed dramatically from $7.48 to $1.78. Looking into the new fiscal year, Rubrik expects revenue growth of 21% to 22%, down from 48% in FY2026. It also forecasts adjusted profitability for the full year for the first time, with adjusted EPS between $0.07 and $0.27. Both items of guidance topped consensus estimates. Rubrik Pushes Back Hard on AI Disruption Risk One key reason RBRK shares fell sharply in 2026 is the same concern affecting much of the software industry: artificial intelligence (AI) disruption risk. An analyst asked whether data recovery and resilience could be "meaningfully automated by AI over time," potentially threatening Rubrik's core business. CEO Bipul Sinha said, "I don't believe that we have any disruption risk at all from AI." That statement may be emphatic, but there are several reasons Rubrik is relatively well protected from straightforward AI substitution. First, Rubrik serves as the "system of record of last resort around data and identity." When other defenses fail, clients rely on Rubrik to move from chaos back to normal operations. That role protects customers from significant revenue loss and reputational damage. Customers could try to build equivalent capabilities in-house or rely on a new AI vendor, but those options carry substantial execution and operational risk. Given what's at stake, many companies are unlikely to cut corners on this form of "cybersecurity insurance." Rubrik also derives revenue based on the volume of data clients want to protect rather than on a per-user "seat-based" model. That difference matters because AI could reduce headcount without reducing the amount of data generated and processed. In fact, broader AI adoption typically increases the need to manage and protect data, which could make Rubrik's platform more important, not less. Still, claiming Rubrik faces zero AI risk is probably too sanguine. RBRK Could Be Set Up for a Meaningful Recovery After Recent Weakness Rubrik offers a mission-critical product, is growing quickly, and is improving profitability. One caveat is its high stock-based compensation (SBC), which totaled $329 million in FY2026. Because SBC is a noncash expense, excluding it boosts free cash flow; if employees were paid in cash instead, free cash flow would be lower. Encouragingly, SBC fell sharply from $913 million in FY2025. Free cash flow also increased more than tenfold, from $21.6 million in FY2025 to $238 million in FY2026. The MarketBeat consensus price target for Rubrik sits near $91.50, implying more than 70% upside. Price targets updated after the earnings release average about $86, implying roughly 60% upside. Overall, Rubrik's business appears well positioned, and its shares look reasonably attractive following the 2026 sell-off. |
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