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Exclusive News Amazon Is Rising While the Market Falls—Here's WhyWritten by Sam Quirke. Article Published: 3/14/2026. 
Key Points - Amazon shares have climbed as much as 12% since mid-February, even as the S&P 500 has fallen as much as 5%.
- There are several reasons to think this could be the start of a shift in sentiment, including recent analyst updates that call for as much as 35% of potential upside.
- Backing up this argument are Amazon’s technical indicators, which point to improving momentum as the stock rebounds from oversold conditions.
- Special Report: Have $500? Invest in Elon's AI Masterplan
Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN), along with many of its tech peers, spent much of last year battling investor anxiety over the scale of its artificial intelligence (AI) spending plans. Those fears intensified following last month's earnings report, when management outlined a capital expenditure forecast of roughly $200 billion in 2026. Given that figure represented a staggering 50% increase from the prior year, investors were understandably rattled about the cost of building massive AI infrastructure and how it could affect margins. I've worked for the CIA, personally met four US presidents, and spent 45 years studying the markets—calling Black Monday six weeks before it happened, predicting the fall of the Berlin Wall, and pinpointing the exact bottom in 2009. But what I'm about to share with you is the boldest prediction of my career. After meeting Elon Musk face-to-face at a private gathering of Wall Street elites and months of my own research, I'm now staking my reputation on one date: March 26, 2026. That's when I believe Elon will announce the SpaceX IPO—what Bloomberg is calling the biggest listing of all time. I have found an access code that lets you grab a pre-IPO stake before it happens, but in 72 hours, your window could close. Click here to see how to claim your SpaceX access code The reaction was swift, and the stock sold off to its lowest level since last May in the days following the report. However, just a few weeks later the narrative appears to be shifting. Shares are currently trading just above $210, having bounced from support around $200 — a notable move given that the broader market has moved in the opposite direction. Over the same period, the S&P 500 has fallen roughly 5% amid rising geopolitical tensions and a surge in oil prices, weighing on risk sentiment. Amazon's ability to climb while the broader market sells off suggests investors may finally be looking past the AI-spend concerns, and the evidence goes beyond price action alone. Amazon Is Gaining Even When the Market Is Falling One of the clearest signals that sentiment may be changing is the stock's recent price behavior. After trending down from November through mid-February, Amazon found strong support near $200. Bears were unable to push it lower, and buyers have stepped in aggressively since, helping to lift the stock as much as 12%. That move is more significant when viewed against the broader market backdrop: while Amazon climbed, the S&P 500 dropped nearly 5% amid geopolitical concerns and higher oil prices. Stocks that rally while the broader market is falling are uncommon, and this divergence points to renewed interest in Amazon's prospects. After a disappointing 2025 and a weak start to 2026, the market may be moving beyond the AI-spend worries. Analysts Remain Strongly Bullish Another sign that investors may be warming to Amazon is fresh support from Wall Street analysts. Despite concerns about AI spending, analysts have in recent weeks not only reiterated Buy ratings but also boosted their price targets. Wolfe Research is among the latest firms to do so. Earlier this week, it reiterated its Buy rating and raised its price target to $255, implying roughly 20% upside. That echoed Evercore's move at the end of February, when it reiterated a Buy rating and set a $285 price target, implying potential upside of about 35%. Overall, Amazon carries a Moderate Buy consensus rating on MarketBeat. Price targets should never be treated as guarantees, but the consistency of these bullish calls is notable. When multiple analysts maintain strong stances after a selloff, it suggests underlying confidence in the company's ability to keep growing. Technical Indicators Are Turning Constructive Beyond improving price action and analyst support, Amazon's technical setup is beginning to look more constructive. Momentum indicators that earlier reflected a deepening downtrend are starting to reverse. For example, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) recently produced a bullish crossover, and the relative strength index (RSI) has rebounded from deeply oversold levels. An RSI recovery from deeply oversold conditions can indicate fading bearish momentum and that buyers are regaining control. These technical signals are appearing alongside a strong bounce off support, a combination that increases the reliability of each signal on its own. While none of these indicators guarantee a sustained rally, they raise the probability of a larger recovery forming. Looking ahead, if Amazon can continue consolidating above the $200 level, that should form a solid base for a broader recovery rally. While investors were justified in focusing on the risks associated with the company's AI spending strategy, they are also justified in beginning to look beyond those near-term risks to the long-term opportunity that investment could create. | 
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