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This Week's Exclusive News 2026 Food Inflation Outlook: This ETF Could OutperformSubmitted by Jordan Chussler. Published: 2/21/2026. 
Key Points - With a loss of more than 6%, consumer discretionary stocks have performed the worst over the past month.
- But the fast food and quick service restaurant market is expected to grow at a 14.8% CAGR through 2033.
- As dining out is forecast to get nearly 5% more costly in 2026, the EATZ ETF provides a basket of fast food and casual dining restaurants that are poised to take advantage.
- Special Report: [Sponsorship-Ad-6-Format3]
Consumer discretionary stocks haven't fared well in 2026. After finishing 2025 with a 6% gain—the third weakest of the S&P 500's 11 sectors—the group has posted a 2.7% year-to-date (YTD) loss, ranking third-worst so far. Things have looked even bleaker over the past month, during which the consumer discretionary sector lost 6.46%, dead last in the S&P 500. But help could arrive later this year from an unlikely source: food inflation. Last month, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released its Food Price Outlook for 2026. While the cost of some food items is expected to slow, most are forecast to rise. One notable takeaway is that prices for food away from home (i.e., dining out) are expected to rise nearly 5%. That's good news for an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that provides basket exposure to fast-food and fast-casual dining chains. Food Inflation Is Not Going Away If you thought prices were out of control in 2025, they remain elevated in 2026. Products like pork and eggs are expected to moderate, but beef and veal prices are forecast to increase 9.4% in 2026. That rise will affect diners more than grocery shoppers. Food-at-home prices are predicted to increase 1.7%, while food-away-from-home prices are expected to climb 4.6%. That may dissuade some people from dining out. Still, many restaurant companies that saw their stocks struggle in 2025 posted top-line revenue growth despite falling share prices and shifting consumer sentiment. Take, for instance, Chipotle (NYSE: CMG). Despite CMG's shares being battered last year, the company has consistently posted year-over-year (YOY) revenue growth. That included a slower 5.41% YOY increase most recently, even as the stock fell more than 30%. From 2022 to 2024, the company averaged 14.45% YOY revenue growth. Inflation remains sticky this year but is down considerably from 2022's 41-year high, when food prices rose 9.9%. As a result, Chipotle's slower revenue growth last year could be an outlier, with stronger results possible even if annual growth moderates slightly. Although consumers lament the loss of dollar menus, they are also—albeit begrudgingly—accepting the reality of $12 burgers, $15 burritos, and $20 pizzas. According to industry consultancy Grand View Research, the global fast food and quick service restaurant market, estimated at more than $296 billion in 2025, is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.8% from 2026 through 2033, reaching a forecasted value of more than $885 billion. That is encouraging for one ETF in particular. Order Up Exposure With the EATZ ETF Since its launch on April 20, 2021, the AdvisorShares Restaurant ETF (EATZ) has provided investors with targeted exposure to the fast-food and quick-service restaurant market. The fund is actively managed and carries a 0.99% expense ratio, partially offset by a modest dividend yield of 0.48%, or roughly $0.13 per share annually. The ETF's holdings, by weight, include Nathan's Famous (NASDAQ: NATH), Dutch Bros (NYSE: BROS), Darden Restaurants (NYSE: DRI), Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM), Chipotle, The Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ: CAKE), El Pollo Loco (NASDAQ: LOCO), Texas Roadhouse (NASDAQ: TXRH), Domino's (NASDAQ: DPZ), DoorDash (NASDAQ: DASH), Wingstop (NASDAQ: WING), and others. Admittedly, some of those stocks struggled over the past year. In many cases, however, that appears to be a temporary setback rather than a new normal. For example, Chipotle has repeatedly bounced back after periods of slower revenue growth: after nearly 15% YOY growth in 2019, the pandemic reduced growth to about 7.13% in 2020, then revenue growth rebounded the following year and exceeded 26% in 2022. Last year, Chipotle posted record net income. So did Dutch Bros, Darden Restaurants (owner of Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse), and Texas Roadhouse. Domino's, which reports earnings Feb. 23, is on pace to set record revenue, as are The Cheesecake Factory and DoorDash when they next report. The fund carries an aggregate Moderate Buy rating despite a notable current short interest near 24%—about 21,000 of the roughly 90,000 shares outstanding. EATZ also has limited liquidity, with an average daily trading volume of about 2,240 shares. For investors who believe in the long-term prospects of the global fast-food and quick-service market, the AdvisorShares Restaurant ETF can serve as an all-you-can-eat addition to a portfolio.
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