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This Month's Featured Content Is Oracle the First of the AI Bubbles to Pop? Submitted by Sam Quirke. Originally Published: 3/28/2026. 
Key Points - Oracle shares have sunk 60% from last year’s highs, raising fresh questions about whether the AI hype cycle is already unwinding.
- However, despite the selloff, recent earnings and analyst commentary suggest the underlying story may be more resilient than the market is pricing in.
- With sentiment deeply negative and expectations close to rock bottom, the setup is starting to look more attractive than it has in months.
- Special Report: The Biggest IPO Ever: Claim Your Stake Today
Tech giant Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) has gone from being one of the biggest beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence (AI) rally to one of its most notable casualties. After surging to more than $345 last September as the AI boom picked up pace, the stock has since fallen to just above $140, suffering a nearly 60% decline. Why is the White House suddenly building a new "Fort Knox?" Hidden inside this fortress lies a critical new resource Moody's calls "the new oil." Demand is doubling every 6 months, and Fox News is calling it the "new arms race." On April 20, a major event could ignite a handful of under-the-radar stocks, setting off what could be biggest commodity boom in history. Click here for all the details. The original rally and the subsequent fall didn't happen in a vacuum. They were driven by aggressive investor positioning around AI infrastructure, with Oracle increasingly viewed as a core beneficiary of surging demand for cloud and enterprise AI workloads. Expectations peaked last September, and the stock followed. Now that dynamic is working in reverse, raising a central question: is Oracle the first major AI name whose bubble has burst, or has the market overcorrected and created a compelling entry opportunity? Here's a closer look. The Bear Case Is Hard to Ignore The bear case is straightforward. Last summer and into early fall, Oracle was swept up in the broader AI enthusiasm. In the months that followed, awkward questions began to surface about the company's strategy and execution — chiefly that Oracle has had to make heavy investments in AI infrastructure, particularly in cloud and data center capacity, which requires significant capital. A report last month that the company was planning to raise upwards of $50 billion to build additional capacity was met with skepticism rather than excitement; the prevailing view was that spending was running too far ahead of returns. Broader market dynamics have amplified those concerns. Rising yields and a reduced appetite for risk in recent weeks have made investors less willing to pay for long-duration growth stories, especially those with heavy upfront investment requirements. In that context, Oracle's selloff looks less like an anomaly and more like a reflection of a shifting market environment. If the AI trade continues to unwind amid high investor skepticism, it wouldn't be surprising to see some peers come under pressure as well. But the Outlook Is Still Bullish There is a counterpoint to the bearish narrative. Despite the steep share-price decline, Oracle's recent earnings reports have generally come in ahead of expectations, and analyst commentary has turned more constructive. Bank of America, for example, rated the stock a Buy this week, echoing similar moves from Mizuho, Guggenheim and Citigroup earlier this month. There's a growing view that some of the more bearish concerns should ease after the last earnings report. Taken together, these updates suggest that while sentiment has deteriorated sharply, upside potential hasn't entirely disappeared. Some recent price targets range up to $400, implying roughly 185% upside from current levels. It's also worth noting that Oracle isn't trying to win the AI race the same way some hyperscalers are. Instead, it is positioning itself as a critical infrastructure layer — providing cloud capacity and the enterprise software backbone that AI applications rely on. That distinction matters because Oracle can benefit from broader AI adoption regardless of which platforms or models ultimately dominate. If that thesis holds over the coming months, the current pullback may prove to be more of a sentiment reset than a full-scale breakdown. The Next Move Will Come Down to Confidence Looking ahead, the key driver for Oracle's stock isn't whether AI matters, but whether investors believe the company can convert the AI opportunity into sustainable growth. That makes the next earnings report in June particularly important. Expectations are now significantly lower than they were just a few months ago. If Oracle shares stabilize around a support level and the company delivers a solid report, it would go a long way toward restoring confidence in its growth trajectory. Conversely, any sign that growth is faltering or that spending is not translating into returns would reinforce the bearish narrative and keep pressure on the stock. | 
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