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Thursday's Exclusive Story Why It's Not Time to Give Up on the Gold Trade By Chris Markoch. Article Published: 3/28/2026. 
Key Points - Gold’s recent pullback reflects a stronger U.S. dollar and profit-taking, but long-term fundamentals still point to higher prices.
- The U.S. fiscal outlook, including a $42 trillion net deficit and rising Treasury yields, strengthens the case for gold as a hedge.
- Investors can gain exposure through GLD for direct price tracking, GDX for leveraged upside, or Newmont for income and stability.
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What's going on with gold? After surging above $5,000, gold has pulled back roughly 20%. That decline isn't surprising after such a strong run, but it does raise the question: why? Conventional wisdom points to a stronger dollar — despite the U.S. having its own debt challenges (more on that below), it remains the safest option in a troubled global environment. Much of the world's commerce is still denominated in dollars. Because the dollar and gold often move inversely, a stronger dollar can push gold lower. That explanation has some merit. It's also likely that many speculative traders who jumped on the gold rally decided to lock in profits as prices fell. SpaceX is already one of the most valuable private companies on Earth, and some analysts believe its valuation could reach over $1.5 trillion. But since SpaceX isn't publicly traded, most investors assume they have no way to invest—that assumption may be wrong. According to veteran investor Matt McCall, there's a little-known public investment vehicle that provides exposure to SpaceX and dozens of other private companies, and today shares trade for less than $30. Click here to see the full story It's difficult to forecast precisely where gold will be next week, next month, or several years out. Still, the long-term trend for gold — and many other basic materials — looks constructive. The evidence for that came directly from a federal report. U.S. Debt Strengthens Gold's Long-Term Case In March 2026, the U.S. government published the Financial Report of the United States Government for fiscal year 2025, an annual accounting of what the country owns and owes. This year's report showed roughly $6 trillion in assets versus nearly $48 trillion in liabilities — implying a net worth of about negative $42 trillion, the largest shortfall on record. You don't need to be an accountant to see that is problematic. The report also excludes large unfunded obligations, such as future Social Security payouts, which makes the fiscal picture even more concerning. Rising yields on the 10-year Treasury — about 4.34% as of March 25 — add to the risk. While that yield has been in this range for roughly two years, the behavior of investors is different this time. In past crises, global investors rushed into U.S. Treasuries as a safe haven; that strong bid has been less evident recently. Now consider the U.S. request for an emergency $200 billion to fund operations related to Iran. If the conflict continues, that may be only a down payment. If the Treasury lacks sufficient revenue, additional financing measures — whether increased debt issuance or looser monetary conditions — could follow, raising inflationary pressure. Higher inflation is generally bullish for gold. Gold's Role Is Wealth Preservation, Not Growth Part of gold's recent pullback is simply profit-taking. Speculators are entitled to cash out, and as Warren Buffett has noted, gold is "just a metal." The primary reason to own gold is preservation of purchasing power — insurance against fiscal or monetary stress — rather than capital appreciation. Many gold owners would prefer not to hold it in a perfect world. But as the federal report underscores, the world isn't perfect. Gold remains a form of insurance for that imperfect world. Gold will always have critics, but even Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) recently suggested investors could allocate up to 20% of a traditional portfolio to gold. You don't have to own physical bullion to gain exposure — here are three practical options. GLD ETF: A Simple Way to Track Gold Prices The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSE: GLD) tracks the price of physical gold bullion stored in vaults, offering direct exposure without the hassles of personal storage. With an expense ratio of 0.40%, it provides liquidity and ease of integration into a portfolio. GLD is suitable for conservative investors seeking a hedge against inflation and dollar weakness, particularly given recent U.S. debt concerns. However, shares represent "paper gold," and investors should consider counterparty and operational risks during extreme crises when deciding whether to hold GLD for many years. GDX ETF: Amplified Exposure to Gold's Upside If gold begins a sustained advance, gold mining stocks can outperform due to operational leverage. The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) holds a diversified basket of major mining companies, which can amplify returns when gold prices rise. Its 0.51% expense ratio balances cost with broad sector coverage, making it a choice for investors seeking higher upside amid geopolitical or fiscal uncertainty. Newmont: Income and Stability in a Volatile Market Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM), the world's largest gold producer, offers direct exposure to a major, well-capitalized miner with strong reserves and steady production. Trading at more attractive valuations after the pullback, Newmont benefits from scale, cost efficiencies, and a dividend that yields roughly 1%. It can be a way to blend income and the safe-haven properties of gold in uncertain fiscal times. | 
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