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No alerts. No replays. You're inside the process as same-day setups like XSP +171%, MSFT +95%, and IWM +206% take shape in real time.
The 7 biggest stocks in America reset 3 times a week now. Most traders haven't caught up yet.
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Happy Easter Sunday to you,
Before I graduated college, I had a choice to make: get a real job or play poker for a living.
Online poker had just exploded, and I was good…VERY GOOD.
I paid for my entire fall semester at college with just a single weekend trip to Atlantic city playing the lowest no-limit tables available.
All my winnings came from a grand total of twelve minutes of action…out of two straight days playing, only stopping to sleep and eat.
Sure enough, when I started trading, I encountered the EXACT same phenomenon.
Most of my earnings came from just a few well placed trades.
And it happened this week for me.
Miraculously, I was looking at the chart, already long the indices, when the "news" hit on Tuesday, sending markets skyrocketing.
I managed to add a massive amount to my position and ride that bucking bronco.
Two days later, I picked off the top in oil with a nice 10:1 reward/risk ratio that paid handsomely.
I'll spend the next seven months trying not to give it all back.
I used to think I was alone…that this lumpy behavior was a manifestation of my ADHD.
Apparently not.
Jeff Bierman addressed this directly in his Thursday Genesis COG members newsletter.
He expects 20% of his positions to account for 80% of his profits.
It's also the math propelling Don's 0DTE trades.
You can lose a few trades in a row, not a problem. Because the winners are SO large they more than make up for it.
And once in a while, you get that super salami sandwich that pays for a vacation to the Bahamas.
But are you the same way? Do most of your profits come from a handful of trades? Or are you able to keep earning slow and steady?
Reply to this email and let me know.
I almost forgot…I did get a real job. Good thing too, because online poker was banned a few years later.
Jordan Schneir
Editorial Director, TheoTRADE
Don Kaufman: Fast 35% win while the world panics (+ a $1.8T problem nobody's watching)
I paid 80 cents on a Starbucks In/Out spread. This morning I sold it for $1.08. Done.
35% profit in one day.
Meanwhile, oil is ripping, and the tape is whipping in every direction. None of it mattered. I knew the expected move. I knew the range. I traded it, took the money, and moved on.
That is how you survive a market like this. Fast. Defined risk.
You do not need to be right about Iran.
You need to know what the options are pricing in and trade within that range. The expected move tells you exactly what the market thinks is possible today. Use it.
Now here is what I was watching while that Starbucks trade was on. A story that broke this morning and has nothing to do with oil. And unlike Iran, this one does not resolve on a headline.
Blue Owl Capital just disclosed the numbers on their private credit funds. Private credit is money lent directly to companies by investment firms, not banks.
It became one of the hottest asset classes of the last decade. A $1.8 trillion market built on the promise of better yields and patient capital.
The patience is running out.
CLICK HERE to continue reading Don's article.
Brandon Chapman: How Options Traders Are Targeting Ford
Someone just bought downside protection on Ford through the earnings window.
The position was over 3,000 contracts at the $10 strike for May 1 expiration, and the open interest jump confirms every one of them was brand new.
Someone placed a fresh directional bet that Ford reaches $10 inside a month.
If you have been watching oil prices climb while Ford sits range-bound near $11.50, that tension is exactly what this print is pricing in. Higher gas prices do not help move cars off the lot.
Ford announces earnings at the end of April. The May 1 expiration extends just past the report.
The Block Hunter Console caught the moment open interest at $10 jumped from 359 to over 3,400 in a single session. The largest block printed at 2,200 contracts.
Ford moves about $1.60 in a typical monthly cycle, and the $10 target is $1.50 away. The math works.
The tricky part is the implied volatility. It is elevated enough that buying a naked put bleeds premium even if you are right on direction.
There is a spread structure that solves that, and the earnings date gives you a built-in rule for when to close.
CLICK HERE to continue reading Brandon's article.
Gianni Di Poce: The Silent Tech Story
Holiday weekends tend to produce strange market behavior. I've seen it happen dozens of times over the years.
Human traders leave their desks early.
The algorithms take over with one less day in the trading week.
Last week was no exception. Markets experienced a sharp rebound after breaking through a key technical level.
The big debate right now is whether stocks are retesting former support as resistance or whether we just witnessed a false breakdown.
Time will give us the answer shortly.
But as keen sector observers, we know exactly what to look for coming out of a low.
There's a niche theme developing that most traders are completely ignoring.
And I'm going to show you where it is.
CLICK HERE to continue reading Gianni's article.
Jeff Bierman: How I Trade a Bear Market Playing Ping Pong
Every day, I pick up my daughter from school at 10:00 A.M.
I have road rage the whole way there and back. She sits in the passenger seat and white-knuckles it while I fight Chicago traffic.
What she does not know is that by the time I get home, PayPal has already paid for another textbook.
You see, I trade PayPal almost every other day.
Buy at $44 - sell it at $45 - $25 to $30 in profit each time.
And it will put my daughter through college.
This is how I survive a bear market. I do not swing for the fences. I play ping pong.
I call it the Bierman Ping Pong Game. It is the single most practical skill I can teach you right now.
It's not glamorous, but it will keep you alive.
And this weekend, I'll show you exactly how it works.
CLICK HERE to continue reading Jeff's article.
Blake Young: Why a $5 Crude Pullback Changes Nothing About Energy
Crude oil dropped $5 on Thursday after Iran-Oman negotiation headlines hit.
If that pullback made you start looking for energy shorts, the math says you are wrong.
Wednesday's futures open was $98.84. Thursday's high was $113. Oil is still up $10 in two sessions.
The supply deficit that drove this rally has not changed. Even a best-case deal is months away from putting additional barrels on the water.
Here is why the energy thesis is intact, where crude is headed, and one trade that pays you to wait.
CLICK HERE to continue reading Blake's article.
Tony Rago: My Favorite Way to Trade Headlines
Headlines can move markets in a blink, whipping traders out of positions before they can even react. You do not have to let them control your trading.
All you need is a plan you trust. That is what kept me grounded this week.
Tuesday morning, I was walking the room through an ES trade: long from the 26, targeting the 88...a normal Golden Setup executed in the futures room with everyone watching.
...then a headline dropped about Iran, and the dome disappeared.
"If you're sitting in a trade and that news hits and your dome just disappears, price just completely goes away, and you got to kind of look for it."
The order book emptied out.
Impulse bars of 105 and 158 handles printed back to back.
If you were on the right side, your bracket either took you out at breakeven or you were staring at a runner.
If you were on the wrong side, you were in trouble.
I was on the right side because I had direction.
I got my 62 points across all contracts, and the only reason it worked is because I had a plan mapped before the headline ever hit the wire.
That is the lesson this week delivered over and over again. Your levels and your plan are the only things that stay constant.
CLICK HERE to continue reading Tony's article.
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