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Corrugated Cash Flow: Hiding in Packaging Stocks
Author: Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Article Posted: 3/31/2026.
Key Points
- The packaging sector provides stability because its products are essential to daily life, ensuring consistent demand regardless of broader economic conditions.
- Industry leaders are delivering record-setting financial results, translating strong operational performance into significant free cash flow generation.
- A strong commitment to shareholder value is evident in dividend increases and buyback programs, driven by a confident outlook for the future.
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Investors today are navigating a market marked by heightened uncertainty. With the Nasdaq in a correction and geopolitical tensions creating disruptions across the global economy, high-growth stocks that once led the market are under significant pressure. That widespread risk-off sentiment has many looking for a safe harbor—an investment that preserves value and offers protection against persistent inflation.
In this environment, a classic strategy is regaining attention. Recent advice from Wall Street analysts highlights a sector often overlooked because it lacks glamour: paper and packaging. The suggestion is that companies producing the everyday containers that hold our goods may be among the most resilient holdings. The key question for investors is whether the predictable business of making boxes and cans can provide the stability and inflation protection portfolios need now.
Why Boring Is the New Bullish
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Watch the briefing and get the names of all 7 companiesThe case for packaging stocks rests on a simple but powerful idea: consistent demand. These companies are broadly non-cyclical or defensive because their products are essential to daily life. Consumers might delay buying a new car, but they continue to purchase groceries, beverages and household staples. That steady demand generates predictable revenue for packaging manufacturers and insulates them from the dramatic swings that affect more volatile sectors. In a market that punishes speculation, predictability becomes a valuable asset.
The sector also offers a structural hedge against inflation. A core advantage of industry leaders is pricing power. Because their products sit at the center of consumer supply chains, they can pass rising input costs—aluminum, tinplate and energy—through to customers more effectively than many businesses in discretionary sectors. That ability to protect margins is critical when inflation is high and helps preserve investor returns.
The Heavyweights of Hedging
At the forefront of this defensive group are two industry giants: Ball Corporation (NYSE: BALL) and Crown Holdings (NYSE: CCK). Both companies have shown strong financial discipline and operational execution, making them clear examples of the packaging investment thesis.
A Year of Record-Breaking Performance
Ball and Crown recently closed out 2025 with record-setting results that underscore their resilience. Ball Corporation, the world's largest manufacturer of aluminum beverage cans, reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $0.91 per share on revenue of $3.35 billion, comfortably beating analyst expectations and capping a year of robust global volume growth in its beverage packaging segments.
Not to be outdone, Crown Holdings posted fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.74 per share, topping consensus estimates, and generated $1.15 billion in adjusted free cash flow for the year. That result highlights the company's operational efficiency and strong market position in North American tinplate and global beverage cans. These performances, achieved amid broader economic concerns, illustrate the stability of their business models.
The Engine of Investor Value
Strong financial results matter only if they translate into shareholder value, and both firms excel here. Ball has issued a confident outlook for 2026, guiding to double-digit earnings-per-share growth and projecting more than $900 million in free cash flow.
That cash generation fuels the company's ability to consistently return capital to investors through dividends and share repurchases.
Crown recently sent a clear signal of corporate confidence by announcing a 35% increase in its quarterly dividend. Such a sizable raise indicates management expects sustained cash flow and financial strength. While some executives have sold shares, that activity should be viewed alongside overwhelming institutional ownership, which suggests major professional funds remain heavily invested for the long term.
An Opportunity in the Pullback
Despite strong fundamentals, both Ball and Crown have seen their share prices retrace in the recent market sell-off. That divergence between robust operations and softer market valuations can create opportunity for long-term investors.
Wall Street analysts retain a Moderate Buy consensus on both stocks. The average analyst price target for Ball sits near $68.77, implying roughly 15% upside from current levels. For Crown, the analyst consensus price target is about $125.21, representing potential upside of more than 25%. Those estimates suggest experts see significant value above today's prices.
The Enduring Value of Boring
In a market seeking stability, the packaging sector makes a persuasive case for a defensive rotation. Consistent demand, strong cash-flow generation and inflation-resistant business models among leaders like Ball and Crown support a portfolio strategy focused on capital preservation and predictable returns. While these names won't deliver the dramatic volatility of high-growth tech, their appeal lies in reliability and steady income: Ball as a global leader with a clear growth path, and Crown as a cash-flow engine committed to shareholder returns.
For investors looking to build resilience into their portfolios, packaging warrants closer attention. The gap between the industry leaders' record financial results and recent stock valuations is a productive starting point for further research, especially for those prioritizing capital preservation and stable cash flow in an uncertain economic backdrop.
Merck Just Made a Big Bet on a New Cancer Growth Engine
Reported by Jessica Mitacek. Published: 3/31/2026.
Key Points
- Merck is set to acquire Terns Pharmaceutical for $6.7 billion, adding its promising leukemia treatment to its growing hematology and cancer pipeline.
- This is Merck’s third multi-billion dollar deal in a year, a bolt-on strategy projected to drive a $70 billion commercial opportunity by the mid-2030s.
- With an average five-year gross margin of 73% and 14 consecutive years of dividend increases, Merck remains a top-tier performer with a Moderate Buy rating.
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While the health care sector has struggled this year, that hasn't been the case for all of Big Pharma.
Shares of New Jersey-based Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK) have outperformed both the sector and the broad market, rising more than 12%.
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See the one infrastructure stock Wall Street is about to chaseMerck's stock jumped after it announced the acquisition of Terns Pharmaceuticals—a deal that will bolster its cancer-treatment pipeline and reinforce Merck's reputation as a top-tier serial acquirer.
That M&A activity has helped fuel Merck's steady growth and market-cap expansion. Merck's market capitalization is currently more than $296 billion, behind only Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) and AbbVie (NYSE: ABBV), at roughly $830 billion and $370 billion, respectively.
Merck's Terns Acquisition Is a Pivotal Oncology Play
On March 25, Merck announced it had reached an agreement to acquire Terns, a clinical-stage oncology company developing therapies including TERN-701, an oral allosteric BCR–ABL1 inhibitor for chronic myeloid leukemia.
According to the press release, Merck will acquire Terns for $53 per share in cash, valuing the company at about $6.7 billion. Merck said the deal expands its hematology portfolio with a "potential best-in-class candidate for the treatment of certain patients with chronic myeloid leukemia."
The Terns agreement is Merck's third multi-billion-dollar acquisition in the past year. Although TERN-701 is still in clinical development, it has shown "encouraging rates of molecular response and deep molecular response," including in patients with high disease burden who previously received multiple lines of therapy.
M&A Activity Has Helped Support Merck's Earnings and Dividend Profile
Merck's ability to land the Terns deal underscores its central role in the pharmaceutical industry and its strong earnings track record: the company has missed analyst estimates only once in the past 19 quarters (since Q2 2021).
When the company reported Q4 2025 financials on Feb. 3, it reported earnings per share (EPS) of $2.04, beating expectations of $2.01, and revenue of $16.40 billion, ahead of the $16.19 billion consensus. With a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 16.45, Merck's EPS is forecast to grow nearly 10% over the next year, from $9.01 to $9.90.
In his earnings call comments, CEO Rob Davis attributed the company's steady growth to new product launches, progress in key clinical programs, and added scale in respiratory and infectious diseases from the Verona Pharma and Cidara Therapeutics acquisitions.
"As a result of this progress, we now have line of sight to over $70 billion of potential commercial opportunity by the mid-2030s, $20 billion more than just a year ago and more than double consensus 2028 peak Keytruda revenue of $35 billion," Davis said.
While those revenue forecasts are appealing to shareholders and potential investors, the main takeaway is the rapid scale Merck has achieved through its acquisition strategy.
M&A activity, including the Terns deal, has become a hallmark for the company. Merck acquired Verona Pharma and Cidara Therapeutics in transactions valued at $10 billion and $9.2 billion, respectively, and most recently agreed to acquire Terns for about $6.7 billion.
Merck continues to pursue a bolt-on acquisition strategy to diversify its oncology, immunology, and infectious-disease pipeline.
Integrating these biotech companies into its portfolio accelerates growth, expands market share, and lowers barriers as Merck enters new markets.
As a result, the company has maintained a five-year average gross margin above 73%.
Those high and expanding margins indicate superior pricing power and operational efficiency, which together allow Merck to sustain and grow its dividend, currently yielding 2.84% (or $3.40 per share annually).
Dividends are common among mature health care companies—especially large pharmaceutical and established managed-care firms—but Merck stands out.
The company has increased its payout for 14 consecutive years and posts a five-year dividend growth rate of 5.75%.
How Wall Street Feels About Merck
Of the 18 analysts currently covering the stock, Merck has a consensus Moderate Buy rating; 11 analysts rate MRK a Buy. With an average one-year price target of $127.13, Wall Street sees potential upside of more than 7%.
Institutional ownership remains above average at more than 76%, with inflows of nearly $37 billion exceeding outflows of around $19 billion over the past 12 months. Meanwhile, current short interest of just 1.18% of the float—about 29 million of the 2.47 billion shares outstanding—suggests Wall Street's bears are keeping their distance.
Merck has been in the green zone, according to TradeSmith's financial health indicator, for more than six months and scores higher than 93% of the companies evaluated by MarketBeat, ranking 39th out of 858 stocks in the medical sector.
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