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Expedia Stock Turns Volatile After Rally. Where Does It Go Next?
Written by Jennifer Ryan Woods. Article Published: 3/20/2026.
Key Points
- Expedia shares more than doubled between April and January after a series of strong earnings reports, but the stock became volatile heading into its fourth-quarter results and fell further after the report as investors reacted to expectations for slower margin expansion.
- Analyst sentiment remains mixed, with the stock trading below its recent highs even as the average price target suggests roughly 17% upside.
- Expedia’s strong balance sheet, growing B2B business, and continued travel demand support the bullish case, but rising short interest, macroeconomic uncertainty, and concerns about margin growth suggest the stock could remain volatile even if the long-term outlook remains positive.
- Special Report: Elon Musk's $1 Quadrillion AI IPO
Shares of online travel company Expedia Group (NASDAQ: EXPE) have hit some turbulence. After more than doubling over the past year following several strong quarters, the stock soared to a 52-week high in January.
Soon after, however, shares began to pull back. The decline accelerated after the company released its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Feb. 12, and although the stock has regained some ground since then, trading remains volatile. That has left investors wondering whether the drop from its highs is a buying opportunity or a sign the rally has run out of steam.
Mixed Signals Leave Investors Uncertain
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See the one infrastructure stock Wall Street is about to chaseInvestors are getting mixed signals about where Expedia's stock could go next. On the positive side, price targets point to meaningful upside from current levels, and valuation metrics suggest the stock may still be undervalued.
News that OpenAI abandoned plans to move directly into travel bookings also eased concerns about potential disruption to online travel agencies.
The company's fundamentals remain solid, with strong growth in its B2B and advertising businesses, which management expects to continue into 2026.
The balance sheet is also in good shape, with more than $5 billion in cash and manageable debt levels.
However, there are reasons for caution. Macroeconomic pressures — including geopolitical tensions, higher fuel prices and weak consumer sentiment — could weigh on travel demand. There are also concerns about Expedia's margin growth in the year ahead.
Strong Earnings Fueled the 2025 Rally
A new wave of enthusiasm for Expedia began after the company's better-than-expected second-quarter 2025 earnings report, which saw the company return to profitability amid strong bookings and advertising revenue. The consumer segment, which had previously been weak, also began to stabilize.
Momentum accelerated after the third-quarter earnings report. Wall Street applauded another quarter that surpassed expectations, with continued growth across Expedia's business segments. Shares, which had already climbed about 68% between April and the Q3 report, rose more than 20% in the two days following the release, prompting a wave of analysts to raise their price targets. The rally carried through the end of 2025, with the stock gaining another 38% before reaching an all-time high of $303 on Jan. 9.
Profit Taking and Margin Concerns Trigger Pullback
After hitting its peak, momentum began to fade. Some profit-taking followed the long run-up, and the decline accelerated after Expedia released its fourth-quarter earnings, even though the company posted double-digit growth in bookings and revenue and beat analyst expectations.
Expedia also issued optimistic guidance for 2026. Investors, however, focused on management's expectation that EBITDA margin expansion would be more moderate than the prior year. That more cautious margin outlook sent shares down roughly 12% in the sessions following the release.
There is a case that the stock could move higher. Although analyst sentiment is mixed — with 22 Hold ratings and 13 Buy ratings — the average 12-month price target is about $281, implying roughly 17% upside from recent prices near $240.
Valuation Suggests Expedia May Still Be Undervalued
Even with shares up more than 45% over the past year, the stock may be undervalued compared to peers. Expedia's price-to-earnings growth (PEG) ratio of about 0.71 is lower than that of several competitors: Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: BKNG) has a PEG of 0.97, while Airbnb Inc. (NASDAQ: ABNB) has a PEG of 1.55.
Expedia also trades at a lower price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of about 2.01, compared with roughly 5.22 for Booking and 6.55 for Airbnb, and far below the broader internet commerce industry, which has an average P/S ratio near 26. Its price-to-earnings ratio of about 24.5 is lower than Booking's and Airbnb's — 26.7 and 32.7, respectively — though slightly above the industry average of around 20.4.
Volatility Likely to Continue Despite Upside Potential
Still, valuation doesn't erase the risks. Macroeconomic uncertainty remains a major concern: geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, rising fuel costs and softening consumer sentiment could all reduce travel demand, particularly among budget-conscious travelers.
Short interest has also been trending higher. About 7.4% of Expedia's float is currently sold short, the highest level since June 2021, suggesting a growing number of investors are betting the stock could fall further.
Taken together, Expedia's outlook remains mixed.
The company continues to show solid fundamental growth, its valuation looks attractive, and analyst price targets suggest upside. At the same time, slower margin expansion, macroeconomic uncertainty, the stock's sharp run over the past year and rising short interest could keep trading volatile in the near term. For investors willing to tolerate that volatility, the recent pullback may present an opportunity, but the path forward for Expedia stock is unlikely to be smooth.
USA Rare Earth: As Losses Rise, Operational Progress Matters More
Authored by Leo Miller. Publication Date: 4/1/2026.
Key Points
- As China wields massive control over the rare earth elements market, USA Rare Earth is working to bolster America's supply chain.
- The small company has ambitious goals, targeting over $2.5 billion in revenue by 2030.
- Despite widening losses, the firm's progress on operational and funding efforts is far more important long-term.
- Special Report: Elon Musk's $1 Quadrillion AI IPO
USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ: USAR) is a small company working to solve a big problem: the United States' reliance on China for rare earth elements (REEs). Currently, mining company MP Materials (NYSE: MP) is the only U.S. firm producing and processing REEs at scale. It is also the only U.S. company making permanent magnets, the vital products made using REEs.
Excitement around REE companies has helped USA Rare Earth's shares rise approximately 150% over the past 52 weeks. Still, the basic materials stock is among the most volatile in the market and is now more than 50% below its highs.
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Watch the briefing and get the names of all 7 companiesThe company recently reported earnings. Its adjusted loss per share widened from $0.15 to $0.19, causing the firm to miss estimates by a significant margin. However, for an early-stage company like USAR, revenue and earnings don't tell the full story.
USAR's primary objective is to become a fully integrated mine-to-magnet producer in the United States. By reviewing the progress the firm has made, investors can get a clearer sense of what to expect going forward.
Why Building up REE Magnets Is a Strategic Priority for the U.S. Government
The U.S. government recognizes that REEs — and ultimately permanent magnets — are critical to both economic and national security. Technologies from consumer electronics and electric vehicles to clean energy infrastructure and defense systems depend on permanent magnets.
China dominates this industry and has used that influence to control prices and as a geopolitical tool. Overall, China controls around 60% of worldwide REE mines, 90% of processing, and 94% of permanent magnet production.
This is why the U.S. Department of Defense invested $400 million in MP Materials and guaranteed MP a $110/kg price floor on neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide. Producers refine REEs to create NdPr oxide, which they can then use to make magnets. In September 2025, this price floor was 86% higher than the market price MP received, highlighting the government's substantial support for domestic operations. With that context, let's examine how USAR's strategy is progressing.
USAR's Site Development and Funding Gain Steam
USAR noted several developments in its earnings report that indicate the firm is moving toward its goal. The company's Round Top deposit in Texas is its flagship asset, containing a significant amount of REEs. Notably, the firm is now targeting commissioning and commercial production at Round Top in late 2028 — two years earlier than previously planned.
The firm acquired Less Common Metals (LCM) in November 2025, which will support key manufacturing steps for eventual magnet production. The acquisition also enabled USAR to generate revenue after registering no sales in 2024, since LCM had existing customer relationships.
Sales were still modest at $1.64 million. Because the acquisition closed in late November 2025, those sales likely represent only about a month of revenue, so 2026 sales should be materially larger. More importantly, LCM's strategic role in supporting USAR's long-term mine-to-magnet ambitions matters more than the near-term revenue it brings.
USAR has also commissioned its Stillwater magnet production site in Oklahoma. The company expects this facility will allow it to begin fulfilling customer orders for permanent magnets in Q2 2026.
Funding is another area of progress. The company raised gross proceeds of $1.5 billion from a private stock offering and expects to sign an agreement with the Department of Commerce in April to access an additional $1.6 billion in support. It is important to note most of the Department of Commerce assistance would be provided as a loan.
Combined with $360 million in cash and equivalents and proposed support from the French government, this could provide nearly $3.5 billion in total funding. That would bring USAR closer to the estimated $4.1 billion needed to build out its mine-to-magnet platform.
USAR: High Upside Potential With Substantial Risks
USAR is targeting $2.6 billion in revenue in 2030 and $900 million in free cash flow. With a market capitalization near $3.3 billion today, a successful execution of this plan would make the current valuation look inexpensive. However, the plan faces meaningful risks.
The Department of Commerce funding is not guaranteed; if that deal falls through, it would leave a significant gap in USAR's financing. The actual cost to build the projects could also exceed current estimates, and construction or mining setbacks could delay large-scale revenue generation.
Still, the strategic imperative to diversify the REE supply chain is a clear tailwind for USAR. The Round Top deposit is particularly rich in heavy REEs, which are required for advanced technologies and typically trade at much higher prices than the light REEs that MP specializes in.
Overall, USAR is a high-risk, high-reward investment that requires significant investor conviction before considering a position.
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