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Additional Reading from MarketBeat Media
Why It's Not Time to Give Up on the Gold TradeAuthored by Chris Markoch. Publication Date: 3/28/2026. 
Key Points
- Gold’s recent pullback reflects a stronger U.S. dollar and profit-taking, but long-term fundamentals still point to higher prices.
- The U.S. fiscal outlook, including a $42 trillion net deficit and rising Treasury yields, strengthens the case for gold as a hedge.
- Investors can gain exposure through GLD for direct price tracking, GDX for leveraged upside, or Newmont for income and stability.
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What’s going on with gold? After surging above $5,000, it has fallen roughly 20%. That pullback isn’t unexpected after such a strong run, but it does raise the question: why? The conventional explanation is a stronger U.S. dollar. Despite its own fiscal problems (more on that below), the U.S. is still seen as the safest option in a rocky global landscape, and much of international commerce is denominated in dollars. Because the dollar and gold typically move in opposite directions, a stronger dollar tends to push gold lower. That likely explains part of the decline. It’s also probable that many speculators who jumped on the gold rally chose to lock in gains.
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It’s futile to predict gold’s exact price next week, next year or five years from now. Still, the longer-term trend for gold — and many other basic materials — looks constructive. Much of the evidence for that comes from a single government document. U.S. Debt Strengthens Gold’s Long-Term CaseIn March 2026, the U.S. government released the "Financial Report of the United States Government for fiscal year 2025." This annual Treasury report accounts for what the country owns and what it owes. This year’s report shows about $6 trillion in assets versus nearly $48 trillion in liabilities. In accounting terms, that implies a negative net worth of roughly $42 trillion — the largest shortfall on record. You don’t need to be an accountant to recognize that as problematic. What makes the picture worse is that the report doesn’t fully account for unfunded obligations such as Social Security. Adding to the concern are rising yields on the 10-year Treasury note, which was around 4.34% as of March 25. While that level has been relatively steady for the past two years, an important distinction exists: in past crises, global investors often flocked to U.S. Treasuries as a safe haven. That dynamic is weaker today. Now consider that the United States is seeking emergency funding — roughly $200 billion — for operations related to Iran. If the conflict continues, that figure could be only an initial outlay. If the Treasury lacks sufficient revenue to cover higher spending, the result may be more money creation and higher inflation — developments that are typically bullish for gold. Gold’s Role Is Wealth Preservation, Not GrowthPart of gold’s recent pullback stems from speculators taking profits. That’s understandable — and Warren Buffett was right when he called gold “just a metal.” The primary rationale for holding gold isn’t growth; it’s wealth preservation. Most long-term gold owners would prefer not to need it in a perfect world. But as the U.S. government’s own accounting underscores, the world is imperfect. Gold functions as insurance against those imperfections. Gold has its skeptics, but even Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) has suggested that investors could allocate up to 20% of a traditional portfolio to gold. You don’t have to own physical bullion to gain exposure — here are three practical alternatives. GLD ETF: A Simple Way to Track Gold PricesThe SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSE: GLD) tracks the price of physical gold bullion held in vaults, offering direct exposure without the hassle of storing metal yourself. With an expense ratio of 0.40%, it provides liquidity and is easy to integrate into a portfolio. GLD suits conservative investors seeking a hedge against inflation and dollar weakness, concerns underscored by recent U.S. debt dynamics. However, GLD represents “paper gold” — shares that correspond to bullion held by the fund rather than metal you physically control — so there are counterparty considerations during extreme crises. GDX ETF: Amplified Exposure to Gold’s UpsideIf gold embarks on a sustained rally, gold mining stocks tend to outperform bullion because of operational leverage. Rather than picking individual miners, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) holds a diversified basket of major producers, which can amplify returns when gold prices rise. Its 0.51% expense ratio offers broad sector coverage at a reasonable cost, making it suitable for investors seeking greater upside amid geopolitical or fiscal uncertainty. Newmont: Income and Stability in a Volatile MarketNewmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM), the world’s largest gold producer, provides direct equity exposure to established reserves and steady production. Trading at more attractive valuations after the recent pullback, Newmont benefits from cost efficiencies and pays a dividend yielding about 1%. It can be a choice for investors looking to blend income with gold’s safe-haven characteristics during uncertain fiscal times. |
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