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This Week's Bonus Content
Tesla: Why Things Could Get Worse Before They Get BetterSubmitted by Sam Quirke. Posted: 4/13/2026. 
Key Points
- Tesla shares have had a rough first quarter and remain under pressure after this week’s weak delivery data.
- Analyst opinion is sharply divided, with recent price action pointing to further downside risk in the near-term.
- However, with earnings approaching and sentiment close to rock bottom, the setup could still favor a sharp rebound if the report is strong enough.
- Special Report: Elon’s “Hidden” Company
Shares of automotive giant Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) are trading around $345, down roughly 30% from December highs and caught in a grinding downtrend that shows little sign of reversing. What began as a healthy pullback in January has increasingly looked more persistent, with each rally attempt being sold into and new lows being set. At the start of the year there was a clear narrative shift underway. Investors were beginning to view Tesla as much as a robotics and automation company as an electric vehicle (EV) maker. That reframing supported the company’s triple‑digit valuation and resilient bullish sentiment, but in recent weeks that optimism has started to fade. Weak delivery data released this week refocused attention on the core automotive business. A lack of meaningful results from the pivot to automation leaves bulls with little to hold onto. With under two weeks until the next earnings report, things could get worse for Tesla before they get better. Here’s what’s going on. Weak Deliveries Bring Focus Back to the Core Business
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This week’s delivery report was a setback for Tesla investors, arriving after an already difficult first quarter. Expectations were modest, but the numbers were still disappointing and reinforced concerns about slowing demand and rising competition in the EV market. When Wall Street supported Tesla’s long‑term autonomy and AI narrative, short‑term delivery hiccups were easier to ignore. Now, with that narrative having lost momentum, investors are once again anchoring expectations to the company’s core automotive performance. A Premium Valuation Means Even Less Room for ErrorEven after the recent pullback, Tesla’s valuation remains lofty. With a price‑to‑earnings ratio well above 300, the stock is priced for significant future growth, leaving little room for disappointing updates like this week’s delivery report or continued uncertainty around the path to profitability for its autonomy and robotics plans. Some analysts still believe in the company’s long‑term potential. This past week Deutsche Bank reiterated its Buy rating, arguing the weakness is an opportunity rather than a warning sign. That view must be balanced against JPMorgan’s recent update, which reiterated a Sell rating, echoing BNP Paribas’s stance last month. Price Action Suggests More Pain Could Be ComingBears argue that weakening fundamentals combined with a premium valuation are a poor mix. The chart’s ongoing downtrend, which hit fresh lows this week, supports that view. Technically, the stock has been forming a series of lower highs and lower lows since December, and until that trend reverses, it’s hard to be bullish. At the same time, sentiment has turned increasingly negative, and the stock’s relative strength index (RSI) is flirting with extremely oversold levels. That creates an interesting setup for sidelined investors. On one hand, Tesla’s fundamentals and price action point to further downside risk. On the other, you could argue that the worst case may be largely priced in. Historically, this is exactly where being a Tesla bull has paid off—Tesla has a history of surprising skeptics when bearish conviction peaks. Earnings Will Be KeyThe company’s upcoming earnings report, due April 22, takes on added importance. With expectations lower and sentiment near recent lows, the potential for an upside surprise exists but may be limited. Investors will watch closely for any signs that the longer‑term strategy around autonomy, robotics and AI is beginning to yield tangible progress. Updates on margins and EV demand trends will also be critical to assessing whether the core business is stabilizing. If Tesla delivers modestly better‑than‑expected results and provides a clearer path forward, the stock could attract buyers. Conversely, if the report disappoints or reinforces current concerns, the downtrend could produce fresh lows. Given the stock’s premium multiple, the market may be unforgiving. |
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