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Today's Bonus Story
3 Retail Stocks to Watch for a Post-Tax-Day BumpReported by Nathan Reiff. Publication Date: 4/13/2026. 
Key Points
- Some retailers may see a post-tax-day bump in sales as consumers look to spend their refunds.
- Target and Best Buy have both struggled amid external pressures and, in some cases, internal failings, but could be primed for a short-term benefit.
- Deckers is capitalizing on newfound market share and momentum in some of its brands.
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The start of earnings season, combined with tax refunds boosting some wallets, can make mid-April a time for share-price bumps. Traders seeking a short-term “refund effect” often focus on retailers, hoping consumers will immediately spend their refunds.
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There is no guarantee of a post–tax-day bounce, particularly in a macro environment where consumers remain cautious amid persistent inflation. Still, the retailers below may be worth watching as the tax filing deadline passes; they could be positioned for short-term gains. Target Needs a Sales Win, and This May Be the TimeTarget Corp. (NYSE: TGT) has had a turbulent few years: shares fell nearly two-thirds from a high above $260 in 2021 to a low in late 2025. The reasons are many, including inventory missteps, rising costs, a customer boycott and other external pressures. The stock has begun to rebound in 2026, rising more than 24% year-to-date (YTD). Recent gains reflect improved cost management and a major merchandising reset. Target is putting its liquidity to work — it grew cash and equivalents by 15% year-over-year (YOY) to $5.5 billion as of January 2026 — and plans more than $2 billion in combined capital expenditures and growth investments this year. Sales remain a sticking point. In the latest quarter, revenue declined 1.5% YOY and missed estimates. For a post-tax-day bump, Target will need to reengage customers — perhaps via its brand refresh or aggressive promotions. Analysts remain cautious, giving TGT shares an overall Hold rating and tempering the consensus price target. One bright spot for investors is Target's dividend: the company continues a long history of dividend growth and currently offers a yield of 3.74%. Deckers’ Sales Growth Has Slowed, But Guidance Stayed ConstructiveMaker of iconic footwear and apparel brands including UGG, Teva and Sanuk, Deckers Outdoor Corp. (NYSE: DECK) has attracted more bullish than bearish coverage overall. MarketBeat tallied a consensus Moderate Buy, with 13 of 25 analysts rating the stock a Buy. After some volatility, DECK is trending upward and has risen about 4% YTD, outpacing its trailing-12-month performance. For Q3 fiscal 2026 (ending Dec. 31, 2025), Deckers showed resilience: revenue of $1.96 billion was up 7% YOY, and diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.33 was a record, according to the company's report. Strength at HOKA and UGG helped drive performance as the company gained market share in athletic footwear. If Deckers can sustain that momentum, it could see an uplift as consumers spend refund checks. The company raised full-year guidance, now forecasting $5.40 billion to $5.43 billion in revenue and EPS of $6.80 to $6.85, with projected improvements in gross and operating margins. Although revenue growth has slowed in recent periods, Deckers' valuation looks more attractive: the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.2 is roughly half of what it was two years ago. Best Buy Could Benefit If Refund Dollars Tilt Toward Big-Ticket ElectronicsConsumer electronics retailer Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE: BBY) has faced sales pressure amid weaker consumer spending, contributing to a Hold rating across Wall Street. Still, the company has outperformed on profit, topping EPS estimates by $0.13 in the most recent quarter. Electronics are often big-ticket purchases that consumers save for, so refund dollars could prompt splurges on items like TVs, laptops or appliances. Management, however, cautions any post–tax-day lift would likely be short-lived, with revenue and EPS expected to remain broadly flat into coming quarters. Investors eyeing a short-term boost may also be attracted to Best Buy's dividend. While the payout ratio is relatively high, the yield of 6.16% can be appealing for income-focused buyers. BBY shares are down about 6% YTD, leaving room for a potential post–tax-day bump (analysts see upside potential north of 20%). |
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