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Bonus Story from MarketBeat
Why Simply Good Foods Stock Just Had Its Worst Day in YearsBy Chris Markoch. Article Posted: 4/10/2026.
Key Points
- Shares of Simply Good Foods stock plunged over 18% after the company missed revenue estimates and cut full-year guidance.
- Quest faces rising competition, while Atkins struggles against GLP-1 weight loss drugs.
- SMPL may look cheap at 6.5X foward earnings, but ongoing headwinds suggest caution for long-term investors.
- Special Report: Elon Musk: This Could Turn $100 into $100,000
Simply Good Foods Co. (NASDAQ: SMPL) has a complex problem. The company is facing pressure with both its Quest and Atkins brands, but the problems are distinct and require different responses. Investors should know this may take more than a quarter to turn around, so SMPL may be a stock to avoid for now. The headline numbers from its Q2 2026 earnings report were mixed. On the bottom line, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.45 beat the $0.40 estimate. It was the current and forecasted revenue numbers, however, that triggered the stock’s sharp decline. Simply Good Foods posted revenue of $326.01 million, about 5% below analysts’ forecasts of $343.87 million.
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That was also 9.45% lower year over year. Adding to the disappointment, the company lowered its full-year revenue guidance. It now anticipates a decline between 7% and 10%. Previously, the company had guided a range of –2% to 2%. Investors were quick to deliver a verdict. SMPL dropped more than 18% on volume that was over six times the average, bringing the stock back to 2017 trading levels. At such a deep discount, is the consumer staples stock a value play or a falling knife? It’s complicated: the company is, in many ways, a victim of its own success. Quest Brand Growth Slows as Competition Heats UpSimply Good Foods was a pioneer in the high-protein snack space with its Quest brand. The brand’s overall retail takeaway grew 2.4% in the quarter but was down 12% year over year. That requires a closer look because Quest is divided into two categories: chips and bars. The chip category grew by 14%, while bar consumption dropped by 5%. A larger issue is that Quest was already facing competition in the bar segment. On the conference call, analysts asked about the scope of the threat from PepsiCo (NASDAQ: PEP) and its Doritos Protein Chips in the chips market. The company acknowledged the threat is real and plans to allocate a significant portion of capital expenditures to increase capacity in this area. Atkins Struggles in the Age of GLP-1 Weight Loss DrugsThe challenge is different for the company’s Atkins brand. Atkins is the company’s meal-replacement line and was a go-to solution before GLP-1 weight-loss drugs became popular. Simply Good Foods isn’t alone—customers now have a pharmaceutical alternative to the Atkins lifestyle, and the brand is suffering. Simply Good Foods is attempting to reposition Atkins as a complement to GLP-1 products. However, that’s a marketing challenge that may take many quarters to resolve, if it can be resolved at all. Illustrating the difficulty, the company lost distribution at key retailers after cutting back on unprofitable promotional spending—the incremental revenue from promotions wasn't enough to offset the margin impact. Rising Costs and Macro Pressures Add to Margin ConcernsIdentifying the threats to Quest and Atkins doesn't make them easy to solve, especially with macroeconomic headwinds. For example, tariffs and rising cocoa prices have increased production costs, directly eroding earnings. At its core, this is a company that helped invent a category that, on one side, is getting crowded and, on the other, is becoming less necessary. That creates a difficult dilemma for investors. It's also likely to weigh on analyst sentiment. As of the market close on April 9, SMPL still had a consensus price target of $28.33, representing roughly 140% upside. But that figure is misleading, since it's based on analyst ratings over the past 12 months. The latest update came from UBS Group on April 2, when the firm reiterated a Neutral rating and lowered its price target to $16 from $23. That leaves far less upside for investors, and many more analysts are likely to lower their targets in the coming days and weeks. Analyst Price Targets Likely Headed LowerIf investors focus only on the relative strength index (RSI) for SMPL, they might conclude the sell-off is overdone. There also appeared to be buying late in the session, which could create a short-term opportunity for swing traders after an 18% drop.  For long-term investors, however, the case is different. Until Simply Good Foods can demonstrate it can reverse the slide in Atkins revenue while preventing Quest from losing share, SMPL looks more like a trade than a long-term investment. |
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