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This Month's Exclusive Story
Tesla: Why Things Could Get Worse Before They Get BetterSubmitted by Sam Quirke. First Published: 4/13/2026. 
Key Points
- Tesla shares have had a rough first quarter and remain under pressure after this week’s weak delivery data.
- Analyst opinion is sharply divided, with recent price action pointing to further downside risk in the near-term.
- However, with earnings approaching and sentiment close to rock bottom, the setup could still favor a sharp rebound if the report is strong enough.
- Special Report: Have $500? Invest in Elon’s AI Masterplan
Shares of automotive giant Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) are trading around $345 — roughly 30% below their December highs — and remain stuck in a grinding downtrend. What began as a healthy pullback in January has increasingly taken on a longer-term character, as each rally is sold into and lower lows are set. At the start of the year, a clear narrative shift emerged: investors began embracing Tesla as a robotics and automation company rather than solely an electric vehicle (EV) maker. That reframing helped justify the company’s triple-digit valuation and resilient bullish sentiment, but in recent weeks that optimism has faded. This week’s weak delivery data has refocused attention on the core automotive business; with little tangible progress from the automation pivot, bulls have less to hang onto. With just under two weeks before the next earnings report, the risk is that things could worsen before they improve. Here’s what to watch. Weak Deliveries Bring Focus Back to the Core Business
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This week’s delivery report was a hard blow for Tesla investors, arriving after an already difficult first quarter. Expectations were modest, but the results disappointed and amplified concerns about slowing demand and mounting competition in the EV market. When Wall Street was backing Tesla’s pivot to autonomy and AI, short-term delivery fluctuations were easier to overlook. Now that narrative has lost some momentum, and investors are once again anchoring expectations to the company’s core automotive business. A Premium Valuation Means Even Less Room for ErrorThat would be less worrying if, after the recent pullback, Tesla’s valuation weren’t still frothy. With a price-to-earnings ratio well above 300, the stock is priced for significant future growth — leaving little tolerance for disappointing updates like this week’s delivery figures or continued doubts about the path to profitability for its autonomy and robotics initiatives. There are still analysts who believe in the company’s potential. This past week Deutsche Bank reiterated its Buy rating, arguing current weakness is an opportunity rather than a warning sign. That view must be balanced against JPMorgan’s update this week, which reiterated its Sell rating and echoed BNP Paribas’s stance from last month. Price Action Suggests More Pain Could Be ComingBears point out that weakening fundamentals combined with a premium valuation make for a risky mix. The chart’s ongoing downtrend, which hit fresh lows this week, supports that argument. Technically, the stock has been making a series of lower highs and lower lows since December, and until that pattern shows signs of reversing, it’s difficult to be bullish. Sentiment has turned increasingly negative, with the stock’s relative strength index approaching extremely oversold levels. That creates an interesting setup for those sitting on the sidelines. On one hand, Tesla’s fundamentals and price action point to further downside. On the other, you could argue much of the worst-case scenario is already priced in. Historically, that’s often where being a Tesla bull has paid off — the company has a record of surprising skeptics when bearish conviction peaks. Earnings Will Be KeyThe company’s upcoming earnings report, due on 22 April, takes on added importance. With expectations having fallen considerably and sentiment as low as it’s been in a while, the potential for an upside surprise is limited but not impossible. Investors will look for signs that the long-term strategy around autonomy, robotics, and AI is translating into tangible progress. Updates on margins and EV demand trends will also be critical in determining whether the core business is stabilizing. If Tesla can deliver even modestly better-than-expected results while providing a clearer path forward, the stock could start finding demand. Conversely, if the report fails to address these concerns or reinforces them, the downtrend could easily push the stock to fresh lows. With the stock still trading at a premium multiple, the market is unlikely to be forgiving. |
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