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3 Retail Stocks to Watch for a Post-Tax-Day BumpWritten by Nathan Reiff. Published: 4/13/2026. 
Key Points
- Some retailers may see a post-tax-day bump in sales as consumers look to spend their refunds.
- Target and Best Buy have both struggled amid external pressures and, in some cases, internal failings, but could be primed for a short-term benefit.
- Deckers is capitalizing on newfound market share and momentum in some of its brands.
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The start of earnings season combined with tax-refund boosts to some wallets can make mid‑April a time for share‑price bumps. Traders seeking a short-term “refund effect” often begin with retailers, hoping consumers will immediately spend their refunds.
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To be sure, there's no guarantee of a post‑tax‑day lift, especially in a macro environment where consumers continue to tighten their belts amid persistent inflation. Still, the retailers below may be worth watching as the tax filing deadline passes, since they could be positioned for short-term gains. Target Needs a Sales Win, and This May Be the TimeTarget Corp. (NYSE: TGT) has had a turbulent few years: its shares fell nearly two-thirds from a 2021 high above $260 to a low in late 2025. Reasons include inventory-management problems, rising costs, a customer boycott and other external factors. The stock has begun to rebound in 2026, rising more than 24% year-to-date (YTD). The company's recent progress on cost control, paired with a major merchandising reset, is helping drive performance. Target is deploying its substantial liquidity—cash and equivalents grew 15% year-over-year to $5.5 billion as of the end of January 2026—to invest more than $2 billion in capital expenditures and other growth initiatives this year. Sales remain a sticking point, however. In the latest quarter, revenue fell 1.5% year-over-year, missing estimates. To get a post‑tax‑day lift, Target will likely need to engage customers in new ways—perhaps via its brand refresh or with aggressive promotions. Analysts remain cautious, assigning TGT an overall Hold rating and tempering the consensus price target. One bright spot for investors is the firm's dividend: Target has continued its long tradition of dividend growth and currently yields 3.74%. Deckers’ Sales Growth Has Slowed, But Guidance Stayed ConstructiveMaker of iconic footwear and apparel brands like UGG, Teva and Sanuk, Deckers Outdoor Corp. (NYSE: DECK) has attracted more bullish than bearish coverage overall. MarketBeat tallied a consensus Moderate Buy, with 13 of 25 analysts covering the stock rating it a Buy. After some volatility earlier this year, DECK appears to be trending upward again and has risen about 4% YTD, outpacing its trailing‑12‑month performance. For Q3 fiscal 2026 (ended Dec. 31, 2025), Deckers showed resilience: revenue rose 7% year‑over‑year to $1.96 billion, and diluted EPS of $3.33 was a record. HOKA and UGG sales helped drive the strength as the company gained share in athletic footwear and other categories. If Deckers can continue to leverage that momentum, it could capture additional sales as consumers spend refund checks. Management lifted full‑year guidance, now expecting revenue between $5.4 billion and $5.43 billion and EPS between $6.80 and $6.85, with improvements projected for gross and operating margins. Revenue growth has moderated recently, but Deckers' valuation looks increasingly attractive—a price‑to‑earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.2 is roughly half what it was two years ago. Best Buy Could Benefit If Refund Dollars Tilt Toward Big‑Ticket ElectronicsConsumer-electronics retailer Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE: BBY) has also faced sales pressure amid softer consumer spending, earning a consensus Hold rating on Wall Street. Still, the company has managed to outperform on profit, topping EPS estimates by 13 cents in the last quarter. Because electronics are often big‑ticket items, consumers may be more inclined to splurge on them after receiving a tax refund. Management cautions, however, that any post‑tax‑day boost would likely be short‑lived, with revenue and EPS expected to remain flat into coming quarters. Investors willing to bet on a temporary lift might also be drawn to Best Buy's large dividend. With a yield of 6.16%—albeit at a relatively high payout ratio—BBY can appeal to income‑focused, buy‑and‑hold investors. BBY shares are down about 6% YTD, potentially leaving room for a post‑tax‑day lift; analysts see upside of more than 20%. |
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