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Special Report
TPG Built a Record Year, Then Lost 40%—Is the Selloff Overdone?Reported by Peter Frank. First Published: 4/16/2026. 
Key Points
- TPG delivered strong growth across AUM, earnings, and fundraising, highlighting durable business momentum.
- Market fears around rates, industry liquidity, and AI exposure drove a sharp stock decline despite solid fundamentals.
- The stock’s lower price and dividend yield near 6% may appeal to long-term investors.
- Special Report: Elon’s “Hidden” Company
TPG Inc. (NASDAQ: TPG) built one of the most impressive track records in alternative asset management in 2025, but its stock has fallen roughly 40% since the start of this year. The question is whether the decline foreshadows broader weakness in the economy and private markets, or whether it’s an unfair punishment that creates a buying opportunity. For investors confident in the future of alternatives and an AI-led economy, TPG could be a timely pick. TPG’s Growth Story Remains Strong
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The company’s recent operating results are clear. Assets under management (AUM) grew 23% to more than $303 billion last year. The firm raised a record $51 billion in new capital — up 71% from 2024 — and deployed a record $52 billion across its platforms. Fee-related earnings rose 25% to about $953 million, and the company’s fee margin expanded to 52% in the fourth quarter from 41% a year earlier, reflecting improved profitability as the business scaled. Since going public four years ago, AUM has nearly tripled while fee-related earnings have grown at a 31% compound annual rate. The fourth quarter capped an extraordinary year. TPG reported adjusted earnings of $0.71 per share, well above analyst expectations. Net income attributable to the company rose nearly 500% year over year, and the company’s shares reached a 52-week high at the start of the new year. Market Pressures Trigger a Sharp SelloffThen came the selloff. Like others in alternatives, TPG was swept up in a challenging market environment. Geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, and persistent interest-rate concerns pressured valuations. Worries about AI’s impact on software companies and private credit added another layer of anxiety, cooling sentiment further. Major competitors such as Apollo (NYSE: APO) and BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) moved to limit investor withdrawals from certain products, stoking industrywide liquidity concerns. That contagion affected TPG and peers including KKR (NYSE: KKR) and Blue Owl (NYSE: OWL). The result: a stock that traded around $70 early in the year slid into the high $30s by spring, even as the underlying business continued to perform. TPG CEO Jon Winkelried sought to calm concerns on the company’s first-quarter earnings call, noting that software comprises only about 2% of the firm’s credit AUM and roughly 18% of its private equity AUM. Strategic Moves Signal Continued MomentumEven as the stock sold off, TPG continued to make strategic moves. In January, the firm closed a $500 million stake in Jackson Financial, securing fee-earning AUM of $12 billion over five years as part of a long-term partnership. In March, reports surfaced that OpenAI was in talks with TPG, Advent International, Bain Capital, and Brookfield Asset Management (NYSE: BAM) on a roughly $10 billion deal to distribute enterprise AI products across their portfolio companies. TPG management is projecting another strong year for 2026, providing full-year fundraising guidance of $50 billion. Most analysts share a constructive view. With an overall Moderate Buy rating, the consensus price target is $64 per share. Twelve analysts rate the stock a Buy and five rate it a Hold, with an expected range of $48 to $80 per share. Risks Remain Despite Positive OutlookInvestors should still be cautious. TPG’s earnings depend heavily on deal activity, fundraising, and asset valuations. The company’s dividend payout ratio is well above 500% on trailing earnings — attractive for income hunters but indicative that the dividend depends on continued realizations and is not guaranteed if exit activity slows. With the low end of analyst targets at $48, upside from current levels may be limited in the near term. Competition is intense. Firms like Blackstone (NYSE: BX), Apollo, and KKR each manage hundreds of billions of dollars and have deeper institutional relationships and broader product lines. TPG is growing quickly, but it operates in a market where the largest players are vying for the same capital. A Patient Investor’s OpportunityTPG isn’t a buy at any price, but the recent selloff has made it a more interesting opportunity. The underlying business fundamentals remain solid, and many headwinds may be temporary. The income case has improved for investors: with the stock down, TPG’s annualized dividend of $2.44 per share now implies a yield of roughly 5.5%, higher than most large-cap financials. For patient investors willing to ride out rate uncertainty and deal-cycle volatility, the combination of current dividend yield, a projected 25% EPS growth, and analyst targets well above present levels is compelling. Of course, if the macro environment worsens, downside could persist. Ultimately, TPG appears to be a high-quality business going through a rough patch, not a broken one — the sort of stock that tends to reward patience more than urgency. |
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