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Further Reading from MarketBeat
TPG Built a Record Year, Then Lost 40%—Is the Selloff Overdone?Written by Peter Frank. Posted: 4/16/2026. 
Key Points
- TPG delivered strong growth across AUM, earnings, and fundraising, highlighting durable business momentum.
- Market fears around rates, industry liquidity, and AI exposure drove a sharp stock decline despite solid fundamentals.
- The stock’s lower price and dividend yield near 6% may appeal to long-term investors.
- Special Report: Elon Musk: This Could Turn $100 into $100,000
TPG Inc. (NASDAQ: TPG) built one of the most impressive track records in alternative asset management in 2025, then saw its stock plunge roughly 40% after the start of this year. The question for investors is whether that selloff signals broader trouble for the economy and private markets, or whether it’s an overly harsh reaction that creates a buying opportunity. For those confident in the long-term prospects for alternatives and an AI-led economy, TPG could be worth a closer look. TPG’s Growth Story Remains Strong
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The company’s recent results are striking. Assets under management (AUM) grew 23% to more than $303 billion last year. TPG raised a record $51 billion in new capital—up 71% from 2024—and deployed a record $52 billion across its platforms. Fee-related earnings increased 25% to about $953 million, and the firm’s fee margin expanded to 52% in the fourth quarter from 41% a year earlier as operations became more profitable with scale. Since going public four years ago, AUM has nearly tripled while fee-related earnings have grown at roughly a 31% compound annual rate. The fourth quarter capped an exceptional year. TPG reported adjusted earnings of $0.71 per share, comfortably above expectations. Net income attributable to the company jumped nearly 500% year over year, and the company’s shares hit a 52-week high at the start of the new year. Market Pressures Trigger a Sharp SelloffThen the market turned. Geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, and persistent interest rates pressured valuations. Worries about AI’s impact on software companies and private credit added another layer of concern, cooling investor sentiment. Major competitors such as Apollo (NYSE: APO) and BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) moved to limit withdrawals from certain funds, triggering industrywide liquidity concerns. The contagion affected TPG and peers like KKR (NYSE: KKR) and Blue Owl (NYSE: OWL). As a result, TPG, which traded near $70 early in the year, slid into the high $30s by spring, even as the underlying business continued to perform. CEO Jon Winkelried sought to calm investors on the first-quarter earnings call, noting that software made up only about 2% of the company’s credit AUM and roughly 18% of its private equity AUM. Strategic Moves Signal Continued MomentumDespite the stock weakness, TPG continued to execute. In January, the firm closed a $500 million stake in Jackson Financial, securing fee-earning AUM expected to total $12 billion over five years as part of a long-term partnership. In March, reports surfaced that OpenAI was in talks with TPG, Advent International, Bain Capital, and Brookfield Asset Management (NYSE: BAM) on a roughly $10 billion deal to distribute enterprise AI products across their portfolio companies. TPG management is projecting another strong year for 2026, with full-year fundraising guidance of $50 billion. Analysts are mostly optimistic. The consensus brokerage rating is Moderate Buy, with a consensus price target of $64. Twelve analysts rate the stock a Buy and five rate it Hold. Individual targets range from $48 to $80 per share. Risks Remain Despite Positive OutlookInvestors should still be cautious. TPG’s earnings depend heavily on deal activity, fundraising, and asset realizations. The dividend payout ratio sits well above 500% on trailing earnings—which may enhance current yield but is unsustainably high if realizations slow. Competition is intense. Firms like Blackstone (NYSE: BX), Apollo, and KKR manage larger pools of capital and have deeper institutional relationships and broader product sets. TPG is growing quickly, but it’s competing with well-established giants for the same capital. A Patient Investor’s OpportunityTPG isn’t a buy at any price, but the steep selloff makes it more compelling than it was a few months ago. The business fundamentals remain solid, and many of the current headwinds may be temporary. The income case has improved for investors hurt by the price decline. With the stock down, TPG’s annualized dividend of $2.44 per share now implies a yield of roughly 5.5%, well above most large-cap financials. For patient investors willing to weather rate uncertainty and deal-cycle volatility, the mix of dividend yield, projected EPS growth, and analyst price targets above current levels is attractive. That said, if the macro environment worsens, downside risk remains. Overall, TPG looks like a high-quality business experiencing a rough patch rather than a broken one—one that may reward patience more than urgency. |
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