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Additional Reading from MarketBeat Media
3 Retail Stocks to Watch for a Post-Tax-Day BumpAuthor: Nathan Reiff. First Published: 4/13/2026. 
Key Points
- Some retailers may see a post-tax-day bump in sales as consumers look to spend their refunds.
- Target and Best Buy have both struggled amid external pressures and, in some cases, internal failings, but could be primed for a short-term benefit.
- Deckers is capitalizing on newfound market share and momentum in some of its brands.
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The overlap of the start of earnings season and a boost to some wallets from tax refunds can make mid‑April a time for share‑price bumps. Traders looking for a short‑term “refund effect” often start with retailers, betting that consumers who receive refunds will turn around and spend some of that cash immediately.
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There’s no guarantee of a post‑tax‑day lift, especially in a macro environment where many customers remain cautious amid persistent inflation. Still, the retailers below may merit a look as the tax filing deadline passes, since they could be positioned for short‑term gains. Target Needs a Sales Win, and This May Be the TimeTarget Corp. (NYSE: TGT) has endured a challenging few years: shares declined roughly two‑thirds from a peak above $260 in 2021 to a low in late 2025. That drop reflected a mix of factors, including inventory management problems, rising costs, a customer boycott and other headwinds. The stock has begun to rebound in 2026, rising more than 24% year‑to‑date (YTD). Recent progress on cost management and a major merchandising reset have helped power the recovery. Target is deploying its substantial liquidity—cash and equivalents rose 15% year‑over‑year (YOY) to $5.5 billion as of the end of January 2026—investing more than $2 billion in capital expenditures and other growth initiatives this year. Sales remain a sticking point, however. In the latest quarter, revenue fell 1.5% YOY and missed estimates. To trigger a meaningful post‑tax‑day bump, Target will likely need to engage customers in new ways—through its brand refresh, compelling promotions or deeper discounts. Analysts remain cautious, assigning TGT an overall Hold rating and tempering the consensus price target. One potential bright spot for investors is Target’s dividend: the company has a long record of dividend growth and currently offers a yield of 3.74%. Deckers’ Sales Growth Has Slowed, But Guidance Remains ConstructiveDeckers Outdoor Corp. (NYSE: DECK), maker of brands such as UGG, Teva and Sanuk, has attracted more bullish than bearish coverage overall. MarketBeat tallied a consensus Moderate Buy, with 13 of 25 analysts covering the stock rating it a Buy. After volatility earlier this year, DECK appears to be trending upward again and has risen about 4% YTD, outpacing its trailing‑12‑month performance. In its Q3 fiscal 2026 (ended Dec. 31, 2025), Deckers showed resilient sales despite external pressures: revenue of $1.96 billion was up 7% YOY, and diluted EPS of $3.33 was a record. Strong HOKA and UGG demand helped drive results as the company gained share in athletic footwear and other categories. If Deckers can sustain that momentum, it may capture a portion of consumers’ refund dollars and further lift sales. The quarter also supported an optimistic outlook: Deckers raised full‑year guidance to $5.4 billion–$5.43 billion in revenue and EPS of $6.80–$6.85, with expected improvement in gross and operating margins. Although revenue growth has slowed in recent periods, Deckers’ valuation looks more attractive. Its price‑to‑earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.2 is roughly half of what it was two years ago. Best Buy Could Benefit If Refund Dollars Tilt Toward Big‑Ticket ElectronicsConsumer electronics giant Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE: BBY) has faced soft sales as consumer spending weakens, contributing to a consensus Hold rating on Wall Street. Still, the company has outperformed on profitability, beating EPS expectations by $0.13 in the most recent quarter. Because electronics are often big‑ticket purchases consumers save for, some buyers may splurge on items like TVs, computers or appliances after receiving a tax refund. Management cautions that any post‑tax‑day boost would likely be short‑lived, with revenue and EPS expected to remain relatively flat in coming quarters. Investors speculating on a temporary bump may be attracted by Best Buy’s dividend: despite a relatively high payout ratio, the stock offers a yield of 6.16%, which could appeal to income‑focused buyers. BBY shares are down roughly 6% YTD, leaving room for a near‑term bounce after tax day (analysts see upside potential of more than 20%). |
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