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3 Retail Stocks to Watch for a Post-Tax-Day BumpSubmitted by Nathan Reiff. Article Published: 4/13/2026. 
Key Points
- Some retailers may see a post-tax-day bump in sales as consumers look to spend their refunds.
- Target and Best Buy have both struggled amid external pressures and, in some cases, internal failings, but could be primed for a short-term benefit.
- Deckers is capitalizing on newfound market share and momentum in some of its brands.
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The overlap of the start of earnings season and a boost to some wallets from tax refunds can make mid-April a time for short-term share-price gains. Traders hunting for a near-term "refund effect" often start with retailers, betting that consumers who receive refunds will turn around and spend some of that money quickly.
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There is no guarantee of a post-tax-day bump, especially with consumers tightening their belts amid persistent inflation. Still, the retailers below may merit a look as the tax filing deadline passes because they could be positioned for short-term upside. Target Needs a Sales Win, and This May Be the TimeTarget Corp. (NYSE: TGT) has experienced a turbulent few years — shares fell nearly two-thirds from a peak above $260 in 2021 to a low in late 2025. The decline reflected several issues, including inventory missteps, rising costs, a customer boycott and other external pressures. The stock has begun to rebound in 2026, up more than 24% year-to-date (YTD). Recent improvements in cost management and a major merchandising reset have helped. Target is deploying its cash — cash and equivalents rose 15% year-over-year (YOY) to $5.5 billion as of the end of January 2026 — and plans to invest more than $2 billion in capital expenditures and other growth initiatives this year. Sales, however, remain a sticking point. In the latest quarter, revenue declined 1.5% YOY and missed estimates. To see a post-tax-day lift, Target will need to re-engage customers, perhaps via its brand refresh or promotional pricing. Analysts are cautious — TGT carries an overall Hold rating with a tempered consensus price target — but one bright spot is the company's dividend. Target maintains a long record of dividend growth and currently yields 3.74%. Deckers’ Sales Growth Has Slowed, But Guidance Stayed ConstructiveMaker of iconic footwear and apparel brands such as UGG, Teva and Sanuk, Deckers Outdoor Corp. (NYSE: DECK) has attracted more bullish than bearish coverage overall. MarketBeat tallied a consensus Moderate Buy, with 13 of 25 analysts rating the stock a Buy. After some volatility this year, DECK appears to be trending higher and has risen about 4% YTD, outperforming its trailing-12-month performance. In its Q3 fiscal 2026 (ending Dec. 31, 2025), Deckers showed resilience: revenue of $1.96 billion was up 7% YOY, and diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.33 was a record. Strength from HOKA and UGG helped the company gain market share in athletic footwear and other categories. If Deckers can extend that momentum, it could benefit from consumers spending refund checks. The outlook looks constructive: Deckers raised full-year guidance to $5.40–$5.43 billion in revenue and $6.80–$6.85 in EPS, and it expects gross and operating margins to expand. Revenue growth has moderated in recent periods, but the valuation looks more attractive: the company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.2 is roughly half of what it was two years ago. Best Buy Could Benefit If Refund Dollars Tilt Toward Big-Ticket ElectronicsConsumer-electronics retailer Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE: BBY) has also faced sales pressure amid weakening consumer demand, resulting in a Hold consensus on Wall Street. Still, the company has outperformed on profit, beating EPS estimates by $0.13 in the most recent quarter. Electronics are often big-ticket purchases that consumers save for, so refund recipients might be more inclined to splurge on TVs, appliances or gadgets. Management, however, warns any post-tax-day lift would likely be short-lived, with revenue and EPS expected to remain relatively flat in coming quarters. Investors willing to bet on a temporary bump may also be attracted to Best Buy's dividend. Despite a relatively high payout ratio, the stock yields 6.16%, appealing to income-focused buyers. BBY shares are down about 6% YTD, potentially leaving room for a post-tax-day bounce (analysts see upside potential north of 20%). |
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