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This Week's Bonus Content
Apple's Foldable iPhone Foray: A Real Needle Mover or Hype Train?Author: Leo Miller. First Published: 4/15/2026. 
Key Points
- After seeing record-breaking demand for the iPhone 17 lineup, Apple is gearing up to release its first foldable phone
- Analysts expect Apple to take significant foldable market share during 2026
- However, the size of the foldable market raises questions about how impactful this endeavor could be
- Special Report: Elon Musk already made me a “wealthy man”
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) hit it out of the park with its iPhone 17 lineup. The new family of flagship devices helped the company post its highest iPhone sales ever in Q4 2025 and record its highest total revenue. Despite concerns that Apple lacks a clear artificial intelligence (AI) strategy, excitement over the iPhone 17 pushed the stock to all-time highs in December 2025. Now, the Magnificent Seven company is entering a high-tech market it has long been absent from: foldable phones.
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According to Bloomberg Technology, the company is set to debut its first foldable phone, reportedly dubbed the “iPhone Ultra,” in September 2026. (There are also reports that manufacturing issues could delay the device’s release.) For investors, the question is whether the iPhone Ultra can move the needle for the tech giant or if it will be just another premium device. Here’s what the data shows. Apple Projected to Reaccelerate Foldable Market Growth to 30%Foldable phones got off to a fast start during their first few years on the market. Research firm Omdia notes the first foldables appeared in 2019, and by 2021 annual shipments rose 309% year over year to 9 million units. The market is still growing, but that growth has tapered significantly. IDC estimates foldable phone sales will reach around 20.6 million units in 2025, or roughly 10% growth year over year. That represents about a 23% compound annual growth rate from 2021 to 2025 — a sharp slowdown from the early explosive gains but still notable given that overall smartphone shipments declined considerably from 2021 to 2025. Omdia reports overall smartphone shipments rose just 2% year over year in 2025. Apple’s entry could reaccelerate growth. IDC expects foldable shipments to climb about 30% in 2026 and projects Apple will take a substantial share of the market — roughly 22% of shipments and 34% of sales value. IDC estimates the iPhone Ultra could carry an average price near $2,400, about double the $1,199 base price for the lowest-storage iPhone 17 Pro Max. Analysts are generally optimistic about Apple gaining traction in this high-growth segment. Whether that will translate into a meaningful move in Apple’s share price, however, is less certain. Low Foldable Penetration Likely Limits Near-Term ImpactDespite enthusiasm, foldables still make up a very small portion of the global smartphone market. Counterpoint Research reports foldables accounted for just 1.6% of the smartphone market in 2025. That low base is the biggest factor limiting the iPhone Ultra’s potential to move Apple shares in the near term. Apple’s absence from the category likely held back adoption; the company commands roughly 50% of U.S. smartphone market share as of Q3 2025, so offering a foldable could change consumer perceptions and accelerate penetration. Even in the largest foldable market, China, penetration remains low. Omdia estimates foldables accounted for just 3.2% of the Chinese market in H1 2025. After six years of availability, that raises questions about how big the market can ultimately become. Looking further out, IDC expects foldable sales to slow after 2026 — from the projected 30% jump in 2026 down to about 9.3% growth by 2029. Still, that would outpace non-foldable smartphone growth, which IDC forecasts will not exceed 3% in any year from 2026 to 2029. IDC also sees Apple continuing to gain share, with shipment market share rising toward 34% by 2029. 2026: A Test Run for Apple’s Foldable AmbitionsThe data present an intriguing picture: foldables are poised to grow faster than the overall market but are starting from a tiny base. If consumers respond well to the iPhone Ultra and Apple captures significant share, the stock could see an incremental boost in late 2026. The longer-term impact could be more meaningful if foldables become a sustainable, high-growth business for Apple. Higher-priced devices like the iPhone Ultra could also support better margin profiles if average selling prices remain elevated. However, sustainable is the key word. A 2023 Kantar report found that 55% of consumers who bought foldables later switched back to conventional smartphones. Overall, foldables remain a niche today, and the iPhone Ultra alone is not a primary reason to own Apple stock. Still, shares could see meaningful upside over a multi-year period if Apple’s foldable foray proves successful and it convinces customers to stick with the product beyond 2026. |
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