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3 Energy Stocks to Buy as AI Power Demand Surges—and 2 to AvoidBy Bridget Bennett. Posted: 4/5/2026. 
Key Points
- Mastec, Regal Rexnord, and EQT are positioned to benefit from a multi-year AI and energy infrastructure buildout that analysts say is only in its early innings
- Coreweave and Oklo face serious profitability concerns under uniform accounting analysis, with market expectations far exceeding what their business models can deliver
- Natural gas remains the most viable near-term power source for data centers, while small modular nuclear reactors are still five-plus years from commercial viability in the United States
- Special Report: Elon Musk’s $1 Quadrillion AI IPO
The biggest names in energy and technology are in the same room this week—and the conversation isn't about oil prices but electricity. That distinction matters. Often dubbed the "Super Bowl of energy," CERAWeek is the world’s premier annual energy conference, where the major players gather in Houston, Texas, to discuss global energy markets, geopolitics, and technology.
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This year, speakers from Amazon Web Services (NASDAQ: AMZN), Alphabet's Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA), and Meta (NASDAQ: META) are sharing the stage with legacy energy producers, and the dominant theme is power demand. Altimetry Research’s Joel Litman and Rob Spivey highlight one major takeaway from the conference: the United States is not energy-independent when it comes to electricity, and the AI-driven buildout could take five to ten years. That creates a specific, investable opportunity—and a few traps worth avoiding. U.S. Electricity Demand Is Outpacing the GridFor roughly 15 years, electricity usage in the United States barely moved, even as GDP grew. That trend began to change around 2022. Even before the latest geopolitical concerns in the Middle East, power demand was rising. Reindustrialization, the proliferation of data centers, and the rise of AI computing have pushed consumption sharply higher. Data center electricity demand alone could account for as much as 10% of total U.S. usage, and the infrastructure to support it simply doesn't exist yet. That's the tension at CERAWeek this year. Energy producers and AI hyperscalers are negotiating who builds what—and who pays for it. Residential electricity rates still exceed commercial rates on a per-kilowatt-hour basis, a dynamic that could become politically sensitive heading into November's elections. Companies that need reliable power may increasingly be forced to source it at market prices or go off-grid entirely, which only accelerates total demand. 3 Stocks Positioned to Profit From the AI Power Buildout1. MasTec: The Builder Behind the BuildoutMasTec (NYSE: MTZ) is the engineering, procurement, and construction firm that builds power plants, lays fiber-optic cable, and constructs data centers. Its client list reads like a who's who of the energy-AI convergence: Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI), Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK), AT&T (NYSE: T), IBM (NYSE: IBM), and Microsoft. What makes the case compelling is what standard financial reporting misses. According to Altimetry, MasTec's profitability is roughly twice what reported metrics suggest. The company carries an approximately $19 billion backlog—a figure that provides years of revenue visibility. Management guided for $17 billion in 2026 revenue, representing 19% growth, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $8.40. The record $18.96 billion 18-month backlog gives that guidance unusual credibility. The market, however, is pricing MasTec for a normal economic cycle, not a multi-year infrastructure supercycle. That disconnect is the opportunity. Altimetry's research on "doubles that double again" found that in the middle of a bull market, stocks that have already doubled have roughly a 50% chance of doubling again; when uniform accounting filters are applied, that probability moves closer to 60%. 2. Regal Rexnord: Solving the Power Problem Inside the Data CenterRegal Rexnord (NYSE: RRX) tells a different story. This legacy industrial company—historically known for motors, machine parts, and HVAC components—has moved up the value chain into data-center power management, and the market hasn't fully caught on. The key product is the E-Pod, a modular, plug-and-play power-management system roughly the size of a shipping container. It steps down and manages the electrical load coming into a data center so high-value chips from NVIDIA and Micron (NASDAQ: MU) don't fry. In Q4 2025, the company secured orders worth approximately $735 million for multiple E-Pod projects. The broader data-center business could reach $1 billion in revenue over the next two years, up from roughly $120 million today. Regal Rexnord's return on assets has climbed by about a third over the past few years as it shifted toward higher-margin solutions, but reported metrics don't fully capture the transformation. Recent stock volatility—driven partly by geopolitical jitters and recurring "AI spending is over" scares—may actually offer a more attractive entry point. The distinction Altimetry draws is worth repeating: this AI investment cycle is not the dot-com bubble. In 1998 and 1999, capital flowed to companies with no revenue, let alone profits. Today, spending is coming from massively cash-rich hyperscalers with demand they can't yet satisfy. Microsoft's Satya Nadella has said publicly that Azure would generate more revenue if the company simply had more power and more data centers. 3. EQT: The Natural Gas Bridge That Funds the FutureEQT (NYSE: EQT) is the largest natural gas exploration and production company in the United States, and Altimetry calls it an essential near-term cog in the AI power story. The logic is straightforward: while nuclear and renewables are exciting long-term, natural gas is the only viable baseload source that can be deployed at scale in the next five years. Solar doesn't run at night. Wind can't operate when it's too calm or too stormy. Battery storage extends capacity for two to four hours—far short of overnight demand. If the United States needs to rapidly build new power plants for data centers, those plants will most likely run on natural gas. EQT holds about nine years of reserves at current production without drilling new wells, and roughly 12 years if it increases activity. The company's vertical integration makes it one of the country's lowest-cost gas producers, around $2 per MMBtu. Management guided for 2026 adjusted EBITDA of about $6.5 billion and free cash flow of $3.5 billion. The company is also completely unhedged for 2026—a deliberate bet by management that natural gas prices will move higher. The dual catalysts are domestic power demand and LNG exports. Geopolitical disruption in the Middle East is reinforcing the case for U.S. energy exports, giving EQT upside on both counts. Stock volatility reflects short-term geopolitical skittishness, not a fundamental problem, and could represent a buying opportunity. 2 AI Power Plays That Look More Like Hype Than Opportunity1. CoreWeave: The WeWork of AI?Now for the names to avoid. The first is CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV), and the comparison Altimetry draws is blunt: CoreWeave is the WeWork of the AI boom. The pitch sounds compelling on the surface: CoreWeave builds and operates data centers for AI workloads. But Altimetry argues the company functions like a data-center REIT with a slicker brand and says it has never generated a dime of profitability. The company reported a negative 22.74% profit margin and a negative 50.27% return on equity. Yet the market is pricing CoreWeave for return on assets north of 25%, roughly five times what comparable data-center operators typically achieve. The company carries a $29.8 billion debt load, has a 0.46 current ratio, and 16.5% short interest. Even as revenue surges, capital expenditures are expected to more than double in 2026, constraining any path to near-term profitability. Altimetry believes that while some metrics may suggest profitability, the underlying economics tell a different story. CoreWeave's economic profit has been negative since it went public, and Altimetry doesn't see a reason for that to change soon. 2. Oklo: A Cool Idea Still Years Away From RealityAltimetry's critique isn't about nuclear energy broadly—it's about Oklo (NYSE: OKLO) specifically.
The small modular reactor company captured investor imagination with a partnership with Meta and backing from Sam Altman. But it lags at least two competitors (NuScale (NYSE: SMR) and BWXT (NYSE: BWXT)) on the technology curve. More importantly, the business model is misunderstood: Oklo doesn't plan to sell reactors; it plans to build them and lease the power, making it fundamentally a leasing business with cost-of-capital-level returns. The math doesn't work at current pricing. New-build nuclear power costs roughly $200 to $250 per megawatt-hour, while hyperscalers are currently contracting power in the mid-hundreds per megawatt-hour. The market, meanwhile, is pricing Oklo for $400 to $500 million in earnings when the company is currently losing $100 million per year. Oklo has around $1.2 billion in cash and marketable securities, which provides runway, but a cash cushion doesn't change the economics of a leasing model that may never reach the return profile investors are pricing in. If the small modular reactor thesis does play out, Altimetry suggests watching BWXT. The company already manufactures key components for the U.S. Navy's reactors, has decades of proven technology, generates revenue today, and carries less speculative premium. Where Power Meets ProfitThe through line across all five names is the same: the AI power buildout is real, it's massive, and it's early. But not every company riding the narrative deserves investor capital. The companies with proven demand, deep backlogs, and underappreciated profitability—MasTec, Regal Rexnord, and EQT—look positioned to capture years of growth. The ones trading on hype and venture-capital packaging—CoreWeave and Oklo—could leave investors holding expensive lessons. The real signal from CERAWeek isn't any single stock. It's that the convergence of energy and AI is now the defining investment theme of this cycle, and the companies that physically build, power, and fuel that infrastructure may be the clearest way to play it. |
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