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Just For You
Chewy Gobbles up Market Share in 2026: Poised to Advance in Q2By Thomas Hughes. Article Posted: 3/27/2026. 
Key Points
- Chewy is on track to rebound in 2026 as its growth, margin, and cash flow invigorate buyers to action.
- Industry-leading growth and market share gains underpin the outlook.
- Optimistic earnings outlook triggered a buying event, confirming support at a critical level.
- Special Report: Elon Musk: This Could Turn $100 into $100,000
Chewy (NYSE: CHWY) stock faces headwinds in 2026, as do many retailers. Still, its digital-first, asset-light model is working: Chewy is gaining share and leading the industry in growth. It consistently outgrows peers and the broader pet-care market, helped by rising digital penetration and a stronger focus on nutrition and pet healthcare. For investors, the takeaway is that the stock rose by double digits after an otherwise tepid release, signaling market support and the potential for further gains this year. Chewy Leads Market in Q4: Guides for Strength in 2026Chewy delivered a solid quarter despite a tough year-over-year comparison and analysts' expectations. The company reported $3.26 billion in net revenue, a 0.5% increase on an as-reported basis and an 8.1% rise on an adjusted basis (the adjustment reflects an extra week). Growth was driven by a 4% increase in active customers, a 2.2% rise in sales per active user, and a 4.8% increase in autoship sales.
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Autoship sales are a critical part of the business because they represent sticky, recurring revenue tied to food, medicine, and healthcare products. Autoship accounted for 84% of net sales, giving Chewy a stable foundation to accelerate growth in 2026 and providing investors with clearer revenue visibility. Margin news was mixed. The company widened margins across the board, which helped produce a 30.4% increase in adjusted EBITDA, a 72% increase in net income, and a 47% increase in free cash flow (FCF). Still, results slightly missed some expectations. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) fell by a penny year over year and came in below consensus, but the quarter was sufficient to build cash on the balance sheet while maintaining a low-debt profile and continuing repurchases. Chewy’s buybacks aren’t large, and they did not significantly reduce the share count in fiscal 2026; however, buybacks have offset share-based compensation and are likely to increase over time. Management is forecasting margin improvement and an accelerated pace of earnings growth. The long-term outlook implies a high-teens to low-20s percent compound annual EPS growth rate, which puts the stock at roughly 9X its 2031 EPS forecast and suggests about 100% upside potential over the next few years. Guidance drove CHWY’s post-release price action. The company's revenue outlook was largely in line with expectations, and its earnings outlook was optimistic. Management forecasts FY2027 adjusted EPS around $13.68, roughly a dime better than MarketBeat’s reported consensus. 
Analysts Put Bottom in Chewy Stock: Institutions Pose RiskThe analyst reaction to the release was mixed. Early updates included positive commentary focused on earnings strength and 2026 guidance, but several firms trimmed price targets. The net result: Chewy’s Moderate Buy rating and an estimated 80% buy-side bias remain intact, though the consensus price target was moderated. The consensus still implies roughly 60% upside this year, but many of the post-release revisions sit at the low end of that range. Even so, the new targets indicate upside is possible, with most in the 20% to 50% range. Those targets support Chewy stock's potential to rebound, leaving room for positive revisions later in the year if momentum continues. Institutional activity is a key risk. Institutions own more than 90% of Chewy’s shares and were net sellers in early Q1. If selling persists into Q2 2026, CHWY may struggle to clear critical resistance near $20.75, which could be tested before quarter-end. The opportunity is that institutions return to accumulation, which would strengthen the market bottom and set the stage for a rebound. Chewy’s catalysts include the execution of its high-margin strategies, such as Chewy Vet Care, private-label expansion, AI-driven efficiency, and its advertising business. Chewy enables manufacturers to advertise directly to consumers on a pay-per-click basis and uses AI to boost efficiency across its digital ecosystem. Private labels are a growing area, improving margins while enabling market-share gains versus premium brands. |
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