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Just For You
3 Agriculture Stocks to Buy as Food Inflation Stays Elevated in 2026Authored by Chris Markoch. Posted: 4/20/2026. 
Key Points
- Food inflation is expected to remain above the historical average in 2026, creating tailwinds for agricultural commodity-linked stocks.
- Deere is benefiting from precision agriculture adoption and improving equipment demand at a cyclical turning point.
- Mosaic and Nutrien offer leveraged exposure to rising fertilizer prices, though input cost volatility remains a key risk.
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In theory, inflation should self-correct. That is when the price of goods and services gets too high; sales drop off to a point where the supply-demand cycle returns to balance. But in the real world, inflation gets sticky because there are some goods and services, like food and gasoline, that consumers can’t avoid. To illustrate this, the USDA’s Economic Research Service has projected overall food prices to rise 3.6% in 2026. That’s above the 20-year historical average and well above the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%.
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It would be easy to point the finger at grocery stores, but they operate on razor-thin margins, so that argument doesn’t hold. The problem is more structural and, unfortunately, driven by several factors that are largely independent of one another. For example, food prices have been accelerating because of higher commodity prices. Just when there were signs prices were abating, the conflict in the Middle East drove up energy costs, creating a headwind for input prices. All of this means that food prices aren’t coming down anytime soon. That's a challenge for consumers, but an opportunity for investors to buy agriculture stocks positioned to benefit from this disruption. Positioned at the Cycle Bottom, Primed for the TurnDeere & Co. (NYSE: DE) is an example of why investors should favor best-in-class stocks. Long before the downturn in the agriculture cycle, Deere was investing in precision technology — including autonomous vehicles and artificial intelligence — in anticipation of future demand. Despite the sector's headwinds, Deere is seeing benefits. Used large-tractor inventories are down more than 40% from a peak in early 2025, leaving room for new equipment. About 80% of new combine orders now include Deere’s highest-tier automation package, suggesting farmers are committed to the future of precision agriculture. Deere also gets a tailwind from infrastructure demand, including data centers. That helps explain why DE stock is up over 30% in the last 12 months and more than 25% in 2026. In the two years prior, the total return was 18%. Analysts have a consensus price target of $655.45 on DE stock, which still offers some upside as of April 14. That pairs with a dividend that has a current yield of 1.1% and an annual payout of $6.48 per share. A Deep-Value Stock at a Cyclical Inflection PointThe Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) is one of the world’s leading producers and marketers of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. So it shouldn’t come as a surprise that MOS is down about 10% in the 30 days ending April 16 — fertilizer prices are expected to rise as critical inputs struggle to move through the Strait of Hormuz. Mosaic is highly sensitive to sulfur costs. Analysts forecast that every $10-per-ton increase in sulfur prices will cut approximately $10 million from Mosaic’s quarterly EBITDA. That margin squeeze could offset benefits Mosaic might receive from last year’s announcement by China’s National Development and Reform Commission that it was implementing a dual-track pricing model effectively banning phosphate exports until at least August. Analysts are neutral to bearish, reflected in a consensus Hold rating and a $30 price target that offers about 20% upside. That said, MOS looks attractively valued at roughly 14x current earnings and about 12x forward earnings. Those multiples could compress further if the company delivers stronger 12-month earnings growth than the 7.8% currently forecast. The World's Largest Potash Producer, Firing on All CylindersNutrien (NYSE: NTR) is a solid momentum play. The company generated net earnings of $2.30 billion for the full year 2025, driven by higher net selling prices for fertilizer, record upstream fertilizer sales volumes, and stronger retail earnings. That performance helped push NTR up nearly 35% in the last 12 months and about 15% in 2026. The company’s scale — potash mines in Saskatchewan, nitrogen facilities across North America, and a sprawling direct-to-farmer retail network — positions the Canadian-based firm for further growth in 2026. The fluctuating situation in the Strait of Hormuz has affected natural gas prices in 2026. Natural gas is central to ammonia production, which is a key input for the nitrogen fertilizers Nutrien produces. However, Nutrien is better positioned than most peers to absorb higher gas costs because of its North American production base, and it benefits on the selling-price side when global nitrogen tightens. NTR appears attractively valued at around 15x earnings. Analysts have a consensus rating of Hold, but recent sentiment has turned more bullish, with several analysts raising their price targets in April. |
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