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Today's Bonus News
Does Marriott’s Massive Rally Mean It’s Time to Check Out?By Jennifer Ryan Woods. Date Posted: 4/28/2026. 
Key Points
- Marriott’s stock has surged more than 50% over the past year and over 140% in five years, significantly outperforming the broader hotel industry, which has risen about 23% over the past year amid strong travel demand.
- While fourth-quarter results were mixed, with EPS missing estimates despite a revenue beat, the company still delivered solid full-year growth, including 4.3% net room expansion, 2% global RevPAR growth, and more than $4 billion returned to shareholders.
- Despite a positive outlook and improving sentiment, the stock is trading slightly above the consensus price target, leaving analysts divided on how much upside remains over the next year.
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Marriott International (NASDAQ: MAR) has enjoyed an impressive run, but as shares hover near all-time highs, investors are left weighing whether the momentum will continue or if it's time to cash out. Shares of the hospitality giant are up more than 50% over the past year and more than 140% over the last five years. Much of those gains have been driven by strong travel demand, especially in the luxury segment, which has buoyed the broader hotel space. Even so, Marriott has significantly outpaced the hotel and motel industry, which is up around 23% over the past year.
The recent momentum pushed Marriott's shares to an all-time high, but where the stock goes next is less certain. While Wall Street remains generally upbeat on the sector, analysts are split on how much upside remains over the next year. Marriott Q4 Results: A Small EPS Miss, But Core Travel Trends Held UpMarriott has delivered mixed results over the last eight quarters, beating expectations four times, meeting them once, and missing three times. In the most recent quarter, reported on Feb. 10, the company's earnings per share fell short of estimates even as revenue topped projections. The company posted fourth-quarter earnings per share of $2.58, up from $2.45 a year earlier, but three cents below analyst expectations. Revenue was $6.69 billion, more than 4% higher year over year and about $18 million above estimates. The quarter capped a solid 2025: net rooms grew more than 4.3% and revenue per available room (RevPAR) rose about 2% worldwide. The company also returned more than $4 billion to shareholders, aided by its asset-light model that focuses on managing and franchising hotels rather than owning the real estate. The luxury segment remained a standout as higher-end consumers continued to prioritize travel. By contrast, the value-oriented select-service segment underperformed. Other challenges included weakness in Greater China amid macro headwinds and softer consumer sentiment, and pressure on the business transient segment from the U.S. government shutdown. 2026 Guidance: Room Growth Accelerates as RevPAR ExpandsFor 2026, Marriott expects net room growth to accelerate to 4.5%–5% and projects global RevPAR growth of 1.5%–2.5%. The company said gross fee revenues could rise 8%–10% to roughly $5.9 billion to $5.96 billion. Marriott also anticipates adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (adjusted EBITDA) to increase about 8%–10% to roughly $5.8 billion to $5.9 billion, and expects adjusted diluted EPS growth of 13%–15%. Wall Street reacted favorably: shares jumped nearly 9% after the report, closing around $359. The stock pulled back into the $320s by late March, but sentiment improved in April and renewed enthusiasm returned. News that Marriott is entering the luxury wellness market through a partnership with Italian company Lefay, along with easing geopolitical concerns and four analysts raising price targets, likely helped lift the stock. On April 21, shares reached an intraday high of $380. After the Run-Up: What Analyst Targets Actually ImplyThe consensus price target for Marriott has climbed over the past year — about $357 today, up from roughly $314 three months ago and well above the year-ago target near $273. Despite multiple increases, the average 12-month target sits just under the current price by roughly 1%. Analysts are split on the stock's next leg. From 15 price adjustments over the past year, seven analysts see downside, with the lowest target at $285 (about 20% below the current price). The other eight anticipate gains, with a high target of $415 implying roughly 15% upside. Overall sentiment is bullish — the consensus rating is Moderate Buy — but individual ratings are mixed: nine analysts have Buy ratings (including one Strong Buy) and eight have Hold ratings. Valuation Check: A Premium Multiple With Less Room for ErrorAfter this rally, Marriott's valuation may prompt caution. The stock trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio near 38x, more than double the hotel and motel industry's roughly 18x multiple. That said, Marriott's multiple is lower than one of its closest peers, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (NYSE: HLT), which is also asset-light. Hilton, which has also delivered strong returns — about 51% over the past year and more than 155% over five years — trades around a 55x P/E. On a price-to-earnings growth (PEG) basis, Marriott is trading at roughly 3.2x versus Hilton's about 2.9x. Marriott remains a high-quality operator with solid fundamentals, but with shares near peak levels and trading at a premium to the broader hotel industry, many investors may wait for the first-quarter results on May 6 before making their next move.
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