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Just For You
Visa Soars Post-Earnings; Outlook Positive Despite AI RisksAuthor: Leo Miller. Article Published: 5/2/2026. 
Key Points
- Visa shares reversed course after its latest earnings report, surging amid an otherwise down 2026.
- Growth hit levels not seen in years while the company raised guidance on sales and adjusted earnings per share.
- AI and agentic commerce pose both risks and benefits for Visa.
- Special Report: Elon’s “Hidden” Company
Shares of payment giant Visa (NYSE: V) have been under pressure for much of 2026; by late March they were down more than 15% year-to-date. One contributing factor is the conflict in Iran. Visa’s payments business benefits from general economic growth, which produces more — and higher-value — transactions. Surging oil prices have led economists to trim global growth forecasts, including those at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In April, the IMF cut its 2026 global growth outlook from 3.3% to 3.1%.
Concerns about artificial intelligence (AI) and emerging "agentic commerce" have also surfaced. Some observers warn that AI-driven commerce, paired with stablecoins or other nontraditional payment methods, could disrupt Visa’s traditional payments model. Despite those worries, Visa reported one of its strongest quarters in recent memory, sending the stock up roughly 8.3% after the earnings release. The company also framed AI as an opportunity rather than only a threat. Visa Shows Broad-Based Strength in Beat-and-Raise ReportIn its latest quarter, Visa posted revenue of $11.24 billion, up 17.1% year-over-year. That comfortably topped estimates of $10.74 billion and represented the company's strongest net sales growth since 2022. Adjusting for unusual factors such as the post-COVID recovery and the Visa Europe acquisition, this was Visa’s best growth since 2013. Performance was solid across core metrics. Payments volume rose 9%, including 8% growth in the U.S., improving on the prior quarter’s 8% and 7% increases, respectively. Cross-border volume (excluding intra-European transactions) climbed 11%. Value-added services (VAS) were a standout, growing 27% and accounting for about 30% of total revenue. VAS includes products that help banks and merchants reduce fraud and operate more efficiently. Visa’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose 20% year-over-year to $3.31, beating estimates of $3.10. On the back of the results, Visa raised full-year guidance: it now expects net revenue growth in the low double-digits to low-teens (up from low double-digits previously) and adjusted EPS growth in the low-teens, above its prior low-double-digit outlook. AI and Agentic Commerce: Risk Versus OpportunitySome investors worry that AI and agentic commerce could fundamentally disrupt traditional payment networks like Visa. Transaction fees — often in the 1%–3% range of transaction value — are a core part of Visa’s revenue model. In a potential agentic-commerce scenario, AI agents could transact autonomously using nontraditional payment methods such as stablecoins, bypassing card rails. That could reduce Visa’s payment volume or compress the fees the company can capture, and a large-scale shift could materially weaken Visa’s economics. On the earnings call, however, Visa argued these technologies could also help the company. Management highlighted ways AI might accelerate the digitization of commerce, shift more transactions away from cash, and expand Visa’s addressable market. It cited third-party estimates that AI could lift global growth by 0.8% to 1.5%, which would support more spending and transactions. Visa is positioning itself to participate through products such as its Intelligent Commerce Connect platform, which lets AI agents interface with its network. The company has not disclosed the fee structure for that platform. Visa: Analysts Forecast Solid Gains for the Payments PowerhouseFollowing the earnings report, Visa received several updated price targets. The average of those targets is roughly $395 — modestly above the MarketBeat consensus near $387 — implying about 20% upside from current levels. Visa remains the world’s largest payments network. Whether AI and agentic commerce will have a net positive or negative long-term effect is still unclear, despite management’s optimistic stance. A large-scale move away from traditional payment channels would be a greater threat than an opportunity for the company today. That said, Visa is not ignoring technological change. Its investments in AI provide optionality if new transaction channels scale. The most favorable outcome for Visa would be AI and agentic commerce remaining a growth niche rather than replacing existing rails — but rapid AI innovation could produce different scenarios. Overall, Visa is in a strong position, though markets will watch how payment rails evolve with AI. The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio near 25x, slightly below its three-year average of about 26.5x. |
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