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Thursday's Bonus Article
Is Oracle Undervalued as Cloud Growth Accelerates?Authored by Thomas Hughes. Published: 4/29/2026. 
Key Points
- Oracle's sell-off is overdone, overblown, overextended, and ready to rebound.
- This isn't a no-revenue, no-profit, tech startup burning cash; debt is backed up by contracted revenue.
- Double-digit upside is the near-term outlook, triple-digit the long, and upcoming results will be a trigger to buy.
- Special Report: Elon Musk already made me a “wealthy man”
Oracle’s (NYSE: ORCL) market is disconnected from reality, but that view is beginning to shift. The stock was punished like an emergent tech start‑up with no revenue or hope for profits because of its debt, yet this is not a cash‑burning R&D gamble. Oracle is a legacy tech company that successfully shifted to the cloud, is now a hyperscaler serving the hyperscale data‑center industry, and maintains a widespread presence across clouds and regions. Yes, debt is swelling, but much of it is funding necessary capital expenditure (CapEx) tied to contracted revenue. Those contracts come from existing clients that make up the bulk of the hyperscale universe. In this setup, Oracle mostly needs to build the data centers to begin recognizing the contracted revenue — a sizable revenue stream that should be more than sufficient to service the debt. Since its March 10 earnings report, Oracle has announced expanded deals with Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), increasing their use of Oracle’s services and broadening Oracle’s market exposure, and it has added capacity with Bloom Energy (NYSE: BE).
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Bloom Energy is important to Oracle’s buildout because it provides an easily deployable, standalone power source well suited to data centers. While it uses carbon‑based fuels, it generates energy through chemical processes that are far cleaner than traditional combustion. Oracle currently has contracted capacity that could support up to 56 individual data centers (depending on colocation factors), which would cover roughly half of its planned construction. Today Oracle operates about 160 data centers; the company aims to nearly double that footprint in the near term and continue expanding over time — founder Larry Ellison has said the goal is at least one data center in every country. Institutions and Analysts Buy Into Oracle’s Value OpportunityThe stock price pullback created a meaningful value opportunity. The shares currently trade at roughly 23x 2026 projected earnings — a modest valuation — while longer‑term consensus forecasts imply a much lower multiple. Some models put ORCL at roughly 5x earnings by 2033, which would suggest roughly 400% upside from current levels. If the market restores Oracle to the richer multiples typical of big tech (30x–35x), upside could increase toward the 600%–700% range. Insider and institutional selling tracked Oracle’s 2025 peak and the subsequent pullback. The data show both groups selling into the rally, which is unsurprising after a long run‑up. But that activity tapered in early 2026, and institutions have begun to accumulate again. Continued institutional buying would help establish a price floor and support the reversal signaled by the charts. 
Oracle hit a bottom in early 2026 and soon established a support base. It was among the first to rebound after the AI‑related selloff and shows growing potential to continue that recovery. Recent price action has produced small red candles, but they sit at the top end of a larger green candle and remain above key moving averages. Those indicators include the 30‑day exponential moving average (EMA) and the longer‑term 150‑day EMA, which reflect short‑term traders and medium‑to‑long‑term investors respectively. As the two averages converge, a move above the 150‑day EMA would be a meaningful tipping point for a sustained reversal. Analyst trends suggest that tipping point could be crossed. A reset of price targets contributed to ORCL’s decline, but the market response was likely overdone. Early in Q2, coverage increased, the rating mix firmed toward Moderate Buy, about 75% of analysts maintained Buy‑side ratings, and the consensus target stabilized — implying roughly 55% upside from the moving‑average cluster. A clear catalyst could prompt analysts to raise targets again and bring the high‑end $400 target back into play; reaching the consensus would put Oracle in the middle of its long‑term range, while the high end implies more than 100% upside. Oracle Has Catalysts AheadThe next visible catalyst is Oracle’s fiscal Q4 earnings release, scheduled for early June. The company is expected to show accelerating earnings and healthy profits, although margins may compress as rising debt increases interest costs. The key items to watch are guidance and backlog — the market needs a clear path to revenue acceleration and stronger long‑term earnings. Less visible catalysts include new hyperscaler deals and the market’s reactions to other AI leaders’ results. Beyond the hyperscale data‑center narrative, Oracle’s core database business remains strong and should continue growing long after the data‑center buildout slows. Recent product updates include a suite of agentic AI tools aimed at enterprises across verticals, reinforcing Oracle’s position as a go‑to provider for AI infrastructure and services. |
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